By Tracy Record
West Seattle Blog editor

The coronavirus-crisis money crunch could force Sound Transit to delay and/or cut some of its upcoming projects – and everything’s on the table, including the plan to bring light rail to West Seattle in 2030.

Potential scenarios for funding gaps, and potential ways to address them, were presented to the ST Board at a Wednesday afternoon workshop. We watched it online. Here’s the slide deck (also, here in PDF):

Chief Financial Officer Tracy Butler started with the grim numbers. When you look at them, keep in mind that sales tax provides a big chunk of ST’s funding. And since sales are way down, sales tax is too. Projecting out to the end of ST3 in 2041, they could be down $8 billion in a “moderate” recession, $12 billion in a “severe” one.

They can’t just borrow their way out of it, because they project costs would start exceeding theirc combined debt limit around 2028. So that’s when their current plan starts becoming “unaffordable.”

One way to tackle that might be to increase their debt limit – which would require supermajority voter approval. Also, they could try to raise revenue to increasing rental-car taxes and fares (both dicey propositions right now since the virus has squashed travel and transit use).

Or – they could cut costs by scaling down, stretching out, or delaying projects. “The choice doesn’t need to be IF you’re going to do a given project, but WHEN,” said Don Billen, ST’s executive director of planning.

ST has 10 projects in the pipeline for 2025-2041 completion, including the West Seattle branch in 2030. No specific projects were proposed for changes or delays in this discussion, but it was suggested that, for example, any given project could be stretched out or even built in segments, as has happened in South King County.

Where the West Seattle extension starts to look a bit endangered is in the potential criteria for suggesting changes, such as whether the project advances the system “spine” (no), whether it must “be completed for other projects to happen” (no), and whether “communities the project serves have other transit options” (yes).

No specific projects were discussed at the workshop, and no decisions were made. Next step is a discussion of the decision-making criteria at the board’s next Executive Committee meeting (originally planned for today but postponed until sometime next week), followed by a broader discussion at the full board meeting June 23, and decisions sometime this summer.

In the meantime, the West Seattle light-rail line – one of the projects in the 2016 ST3 ballot measure – remains in the environmental-study phase, with the next milestone currently scheduled to be the draft Environmental Impact Statement’s release early next year. ST spokesperson David Jackson tells WSB, “Work continues on the West Seattle-Ballard project, but plans and timelines of all projects not currently under contract or in construction are subject to change as part of our realignment process.”

Story and photos by Jason Grotelueschen
Reporting for West Seattle Blog

Neighbors and Sound Transit staff gathered Thursday night for a “neighborhood forum” at the Alki Masonic Center to talk about the West Seattle expansion of light rail, and what it means for the community.

It was a busy couple of days for light rail discussions. Earlier that same day, the ST Board gathered downtown for its regular meeting, focused on a discussion/briefing about the outcomes and effects of Initiative 976 (full WSB coverage here). The night before, ST held a neighborhood forum in downtown Seattle at the Central Library. Coming up the week after Thanksgiving, ST is holding additional forums in Chinatown-International District, Interbay/Ballard and right here in Delridge (info here).

The well-attended 2-hour forum began with an “open house” format, followed by a Sound Transit presentation and then an hour of individual table discussions. As attendees arrived, they were able to view informational materials and share input centered around two key questions: 1) What do you value about your community? and 2) How could a light rail station best serve your community?

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By Tracy Record
West Seattle Blog editor

Just a few hours before tonight’s Sound Transit “neighborhood forum” in West Seattle (6 pm, Alki Masonic Center), the ST Board‘s regular meeting centered on a briefing/discussion about the effects of Initiative 976:

We were downtown for the meeting, which – after an occasionally raucous public-comment period – began with ST staffers briefing the board. First – “where we are” in terms of ST’s current timeline for expansion programs. If revenue were cut, the projects through 2024, the board was told, would be the “last places” they’d cut. But the projects starting with 2030 – projected opening date for the West Seattle extension – potentially different story.

General counsel Desmond Brown then opened with toplines on “what 976 says and does.” … “The provisions repealing our taxes do not take effect at this time,” but rather once $2.3 billion in outstanding bonds and debt are paid off – and it’s up to the board when those debts/bonds will be retired.
(Added – from the slide-deck printout, the relevant ballot-pamphlet language:)

The outstanding bond contracts provide for motor-vehicle-excise taxes and rental-car rates staying at the current rates until those are paid off. Brown said. He also noted that the initiative is now being challenged in court, and if it stands, there will probably be an ensuing lawsuit about when that debt has to be retired. Could ST be forced to retire it sooner? There’s legal precedent on that, Brown said.

CEO Peter Rogoff pointed out that other agencies “that feed passengers to Sound Transit” – such as Metro – are nonetheless facing “very serious” challenges because of 976. Other transit agencies face a “devastating” loss of revenue, and service to their users. “Sound Transit cares deeply about what happens to all our partners,” Rogoff said.

Chief Financial Officer Tracy Butler picked up from there. If the bonds were “defeased,” it would mean $7.2 billion less in revenue through 2041, and the agency could run out of “financial capacity as early as 2029” – which means ST could have to cancel or delay projects and/or reduce services.

But delaying wouldn’t be much of a solution, Butler said. Say, projects are delayed by five years – that could cost $6 billion more in capital costs, %16 billion in added interest through 2061, and could delay a “tax rollback” for 12 years, costing taxpayers $25 billion more in additional taxes through 2061 “to fund a delayed voter-approved program.”

Board chair John Marchione said the reason voters approved ST3 was a recognition that transit expansion was long overdue. “This is our region’s transportation catch-up plan” and the investments require a tax investment. “The only available sources are the sales tax, property tax, and MVET. Nobody loves writing a big check for (vehicle renewals)” but he believes voters spoke loudly with ST3 – and that was louder than the margin, in the ST district, spoke with 976:

After a closed-door executive session, the board emerged to discuss its “response to 976.” It was first announced that ST won’t take any of its own legal action right now – they have to keep reviewing the “legal issues” and monitoring the other litigation. So individual board members were invited to speak. Only two did, neither from Seattle/King County. The first warned that the board had best not just focus on its “district” but should pay attention to the “frustration” elsewhere in the region and state. And he said the valuation discrepancy that led to the taxation rate made that frustration worse. “We have got to get this resolved – people need to believe they’re paying car tabs based on an accurate valuation of their vehicle.” Another board member said it’s important to keep the pressure on the Legislature.

So bottom line remains “too soon to say” what happens next, but there’s a chance West Seattle light rail could be delayed or even canceled as part of a worst-case scenario.

Earlier in the meeting:

PUBLIC COMMENT: In this section of the meeting, before the 976 discussion, Youngstown property owner Dennis Noland spoke first, thanking the board for agreeing to include the Andover/Yancy alternative in environmental studies. He was followed by Tim Eyman, author of 976, who called his initiative an “overwhelming repudiation” of ST. “People outside Seattle have no voice any more.” Eyman then declared he was running for governor next year and at that point got booted from the microphone, with an explanation that “campaigning” isn’t allowed. Someone briefly chanted “let him talk” while someone counter-chanted “No campaigning.” … Other speakers were both pro and con 976. Two speakers in particular called out the effects that 976 could have on people with disabilities.

TONIGHT’S MEETING: Again, if you see this before 6 pm, that’s when ST’s West Seattle “neighborhood forum” begins – all welcome – Alki Masonic Center, 4736 40th SW.

ADDED: Post-board meeting, ST published this statement from board chair Marchione.

The flyer from Sound Transit shows the next location their crew will be drilling for soil testing – 22nd SW on Pigeon Point. The flyer shows a map of the location, where work could start as soon as Wednesday. In the meantime, they’re working further east. Also a reminder that Sound Transit has a neighborhood-forum meeting coming up in West Seattle, 6 pm November 21st at the Alki Masonic Center (4736 40th SW).

While Sound Transit continues environmental work – including soil sampling on Harbor Island (thanks to those who have sent photos recently, including the one above) – they’re also continuing community conversation about West Seattle light rail. Next step: Two “neighborhood forums” just announced. ST says these are “to learn more about the alternatives we’ll be studying in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, what happens next in the environmental review process and how you can stay engaged” as well as “opportunities to participate in small group activities to discuss how the vision and values of your neighborhood relate to future light rail stations.” The dates/locations:

November 21

Station areas include Delridge, Avalon and Alaska Junction

Thursday, Nov. 21, 2019 | 6 – 8 p.m.
Alki Masonic Center, 4736 40th Avenue SW

****

December 7

Delridge station only

Saturday, Dec. 7, 2019 | 10 a.m. – 12 p.m.
Delridge Community Center (Gym), 4501 Delridge Way SW, Seattle

This event focuses on the Delridge station and builds upon the community engagement and collaboration approach outlined in the Racial Equity Toolkit. Spanish and Vietnamese interpreters will be available.

Before these, the ST Board is due to decide this Thursday (1:30 pm October 24, downtown boardroom) whether the environmental studies will include either or both of two additional West Seattle alternatives, Yancy/Andover Elevated and Pigeon Point Tunnel. As reported here earlier this month, a board committee recommended including the former and leaving it up to the full board to discuss the latter.

The yellow dots on that map mark locations at the office/marina complex on the south end of Harbor Island [map] where soil sampling is about to start as Sound Transit continues studying potential routes for West Seattle light rail. The full flyer is here (PDF). It says that once sampling starts – as soon as tomorrow – “Work … will occur during nights, from 6:00 pm – 7:00 am. Each boring will take approximately 5-7 days and will be filled and patched with a flush-mounted monument surface when work is complete.” The drilling will all be done in parking lots/driveways, ST says.

SIDE NOTE: If you have questions about this or any other aspect of West Seattle light-rail planning, a reminder – ST reps are on the agenda at tonight’s Junction Neighborhood Organization meeting. And two upcoming ST board meetings will determine whether two West Seattle options are included in environmental studies – the System Expansion Committee this Thursday, and the full board on October 24th.

Got a question or comment about the latest information on West Seattle light-rail planning, the “initial assessments” of two more options that might be added to the first round of environmental studies? (Here’s our coverage from earlier this month.) You can talk with Sound Transit reps right now, as they are boothing at today’s West Seattle Farmers’ Market (until 2 pm). The ST Board will decide next month whether to study either or both, a required step toward any further consideration. Until next Friday (October 4th), you can review the alternatives and comment via this “online open house” – choose the tabs for Yancy/Andover Elevated and Pigeon Point Tunnel.