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September 9, 2008 at 10:30 pm #638347
acemotelParticipantYW JoB. Love that mudflaps site. And thx WSMom it’s very interesting to read what the foreign press is saying about this election.
September 9, 2008 at 10:34 pm #638348
ZenguyParticipantI unfortunately have a landline due to being in a finicky cell area and for non cable internet as well. Not that I have been polled though.
September 9, 2008 at 11:54 pm #638349
JoBParticipantyou know, i haven’t been polled either.. but how would i know? i just say no to all surveys …
if someone wants to know what i think they can read it here:)
September 10, 2008 at 1:03 am #638350
JenVMemberSeptember 10, 2008 at 4:09 am #638351
addParticipantRe: polls and sites that track them – this was posted on Mudflats:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com is the definitive site for accurate state by state projections. You could spend a day in between mudflats posts perusing the site. Nate Silver (whose day job is with baseball prospectus – he invented PECOTA for those who know that stat) weighs different polls differently depending on how they handle the demographics, and their history for accuracy, and how recently they were taken. He has some very interesting stuff in the last 2 or three days. Gives commentary.
http://www.pollster.com is probably the second most accurate, and it’s more user friendly. It’s also a poll of polls, and was the standard for excellence before Nate Silver put up 538. It has a map you can move your cursor over and see the polls for each state.
http://www.electoral-vote.com is probably the third most accurate, (probably less accurate because I think they rely on just the last poll. But sometimes that means they’ll catch a switch before the other two sites will). similar map to pollster. Lots of great links – catch the political humor link.
All 3 sites also cover senatorial races.
September 10, 2008 at 10:48 am #638352
acemotelParticipantthanks, add. Great info. So good that Washington is a stong solid blue state.
September 10, 2008 at 3:01 pm #638353
JoBParticipantadd…
thanks so much for posting silver’s polling site. i just spent half an hour there and learned a lot.
The one big thing i learned is that it might not be such a bad idea to take your vacation time in another state working for the campaign if you can. While we can make a difference in the popular vote here.. we can’t make much difference in the electoral vote.. which we can elsewhere.
Does anyone here belong to any mother’s group online? it appears the bump is due to Sarah Palin and the identification with her of young mothers.
Anyone belonging to any of those sites should be bringing up issues… because although she may look like them.. she isn’t looking out for the future of their children…
And i would use a neutral stance.. how do the candidates stand of this or that issue…
i may join a couple of them myself:)
September 10, 2008 at 6:08 pm #638354
WSMomParticipantI think I like the polls overseas better….
“If anyone needed proof of France’s love for Barack Obama, le Figaro offered it today with an opinion poll. This finds that (EIGHTY) 80 percent of the French want the Democrat candidate to win the US presidency while only (EIGHT) 8 percent favour John McCain.”
September 15, 2008 at 8:26 pm #638355
beachdrivegirlParticipantSo it has been less than a week and the polls are already correcting themselves. this a.m. on realclearpolitics.com mccain was @ + 2 now not even twelve hours later the polls are at + 1.6
September 16, 2008 at 8:36 pm #638356
walfredoMemberTwo polls today have Obama +4. Rasmussen and Gallup that showed the biggest McCain bounce have him +1 which is in effect a statistical tie…
http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091608release.pdf
http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines
It is obviously very close, but those who doom and gloomers should at least take some pride in knowing this thing is a long way from over.
And in probably the best news of the day, Governor Palin’s meteroic rise to popularity seems to be fading just as quicly. Her favorability ratings dropping close to 16 points in one week!
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/palins-favorability-numbers-eroding.html
September 16, 2008 at 8:43 pm #638357
JoBParticipantSeptember 17, 2008 at 3:40 pm #638358
beachdrivegirlParticipantThe average of polls @ realclearpolitics.com have McCain at less than a pt… I am taking pride Walfredo!
September 17, 2008 at 4:13 pm #638359
RainyDay1235MemberAgain, SO important how these polls are being conducted. We’ve already decided if it’s by land-line telephone they are missing a HUGE part of the younger/cell-phone only Democrat demographic. Anyone know what the method is for Gallup? Realclear? other?
September 17, 2008 at 4:16 pm #638360
beachdrivegirlParticipantrealclear uses an average of the leadind polls of major news sources, gallup etc.
I am not sure who Gallup uses. And yes you are so right about missing the younger Democrat (Obama loving) group!
September 17, 2008 at 6:04 pm #638361
JenVMemberpolls mean nothing…and I really wish they would stop the media from using them on election day. people see the polls and think, oh well, it’s already decided- I might as well not vote. Polls mean nothing- zip, nada.
Polls are brought to you by The Institute for Pulling Numbers out of our A$$.
September 17, 2008 at 6:32 pm #638362
charlabobParticipantJenV, they’ve actually stopped displaying results of exit polls on election day until all the polls across the country are closed. Less from a sense of civic obligation than from a sense of humiliation because of the 2000 “results.”
Before that, it’s really the job of the campaigns to make clear that voting matters (and to make sure that all the caging fails.)
I actually prefer the “tea leaf approach.” In years when the American League wins the AllStar game and two teams from west of the Missisipi are in the World Series, the candidate of the incumbent party wins.” I made that one up, but I have seen some almost as silly.
September 17, 2008 at 11:35 pm #638363
beachdrivegirlParticipantWow what a day! It is a tie on realclearpolitics. gallup has Obama up still….
September 18, 2008 at 3:27 pm #638364
beachdrivegirlParticipantRealclearpolitics has Obama + 1.7!
September 18, 2008 at 4:24 pm #638365
RainyDay1235MemberPOLL numbers don’t mean much to me – unless anyone has ‘off the street’ #’s. Again, I don’t know anyone in my demographic (mostly Obama supporters) who own a land-line.
However, PUSH-POLLING has now begun. Classy job GOP!
September 18, 2008 at 5:56 pm #638366
RSMemberHere’s an article about cell phones from Gallup. http://www.gallup.com/poll/110383/Does-Gallup-call-cell-phones.aspx
It seems to be younger voters that have only cell phones, and we all know how their voter turn-out tends to be…
For people who have lived here through multiple presidential elections, is the time difference a big deal? Is it accepted fact that calling the Eastern states in advance of polls closing on the West coast tends to discourage people from voting out here? Having lived in the Eastern and Central timezones my whole life I honestly never thought about that issue until now.
September 18, 2008 at 6:02 pm #638367
JenVMemberwhen I was 20, I worked for two days as a telemarketer…or so I thought. It turned out we were calling to garner votes for a political race in Louisiana, of all places. Yes, I lived in Olympia at the time. It was horrifying. We had to call random people and ask them who they were voting for…and why they should vote for “our” candidate – who happened to be a good ol’ boy from the south, right wing, etc. I quit after two days because my stomach hurt to have those words come out of my mouth, and some of the things those ignorant people would say to me. A direct quote: “well of course I’m voting for XXXX- he’s the white one, isn’t he?” Sick and wrong.
September 18, 2008 at 10:46 pm #638368
mellaw6565MemberCNN is now doing the “Poll of Polls” – now isn’t that interesting? Doesn’t seem very scientific – just really an average.
September 26, 2008 at 7:28 am #638369
AnonymousInactiveI know, I know….. polls don’t mean anything to anyone here. I just thought I would point out that, it seems, at least, that about half the country doesn’t quite have the same views as the majority of this forum:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110668/Gallup-Daily-Race-Back-Tie-46-Each.aspx
September 26, 2008 at 7:56 am #638370
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