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September 8, 2008 at 11:10 pm #588009
beachdrivegirlParticipantI was going to post this under another thread but couldn’t choose the right one.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of major polls. On the President Bush Job Approval poll President Bush only has a 32.8% approval rating. (Pretty poor if you ask me.) Then you look @ the polls for the general election and as of today McCain is + 2.9.
I understand polls generally do not mean a lot and are not very reliable. But it seems odd to me that when that many people disapprove of our current President, but are still supporting a man who agrees with President Bush over 90% of the time… does this baffle anyone else??
September 8, 2008 at 11:11 pm #638323
JenVMemberit shows the average American citizen is falling for this Palin snow-job. Shameful.
September 8, 2008 at 11:15 pm #638324
CaduceusMemberWell at least we know after McCain, we won’t be electing any more Fundamentalist catering Republicans for awhile.
And maybe afterwards all the true Conservatives will come out of hiding.
:]
September 8, 2008 at 11:18 pm #638325
ZenguyParticipantIt’s because most American’s vote based on who they want to have a beer with and do not understand a bit about their candidate. Most men vote with their d***s as evidenced by Palin’s aproval rating with men in Alaska.
September 8, 2008 at 11:27 pm #638326
MagpieParticipantAs you can see from the shirts on cafepress.com…Palin is referred to as a MILF, a VPILF, ” the candidate most likely to be Drilled”..I could go on and on. Bottom line, looks like her looks are actually an issue, which as long as she is able to hide behind them and not truly have issues (so far she has just repeated the same speech over and over), the polls could continue to give the bump to the MCCain campaign.
Eventually, that will wear off and all we can do is hope that those polled will actually be looking at issues.
There are a lot of men in Alaska…
September 9, 2008 at 12:43 am #638327
walfredoMemberPolls are a little shaky at this time. The post convention bumps have been felt in every elections- even ones less crazy then this one. Obama’s highest polling number he will see in the election was the Monday following his convention- between +4 and +8 in the various polls. John McCain (historically speaking)is at the highest point he will be at any point during his campaign the Monday through maybe Wednesday after his convention. He is between -1 to +4 in the various polls today. As is always the case, the outlier results will regress to the mean.
The final tally will be between McCain’s post convention numbers mid this week and Obama’s post convention numbers last Monday. (that is a 12 point spread)
Also- important to remember that it is not a national election. A national poll really has no meaning. It is the “swing states” that count.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
I really enjoy this site for poll analysis. They predicted both convention bumps accurately before they happened and still have Obama winning 298 to 239 based on the current electorial college state polls.
A credible path to 273 for Obama can be made in states he currently has at least a 5 point advantage- despite losing Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Virginia which are all basically tossups at the moment. If he can win any of those 4 states, it is going to be next to impossible for McCain to win the election.
Obama would need to win- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado to win despite losing all 4 of the states mentioned above. He currently leads between 4-6 points in all 4 states.
September 9, 2008 at 12:49 am #638328
charlabobParticipantOne of the interesting thing about polls this year is that pollsters can only call landlines. Some large percentage (maybe more than half?) of <30’s have only cell phones and they never show up on polls. It’s not whistling in the dark to say that could make a big difference in Obama’s numbers.
Informal poll: How many of you have ONLY cell phones?
September 9, 2008 at 12:53 am #638329
JenVMemberI haven’t had a land line for 5 years. It’s bliss.
September 9, 2008 at 1:16 am #638330
JoBParticipantthe bump is because the convention puts the candidate in the press… and mostly what you hear are their campaign promises and misreprsentations…
and the fuss over Palin has ensured that they stay there.
the trouble with campaign lies is that they are told over and over in prime time. fact checking happens once or twice a week and you have to actually make an effort to hear the truth.
this is why we need to seriously fund democratic party advertising.. everywhere we can.
September 9, 2008 at 1:26 am #638331
CaduceusMemberI don’t think there has ever been an accurate political poll in the history of the universe. :P
September 9, 2008 at 1:30 am #638332
AimParticipantIt’s been 7-8 years now that I have been cell-phone-only. No landline at all. I can hardly express how much nicer it is to never have a ringing phone in the house. I’m not under 30, and neither is my fiance, who also has been cell-only for many years.
Of all the people i know, of many varying ages, I only know a handful who have land lines. Generally speaking, they are older and more “traditional” and prone to conservatism.
September 9, 2008 at 1:35 am #638333
JoBParticipantAim..
those aren’t nice things to say about me:(
ok.. i am older.. but i suspect not quite so traditional or prone to conservatism…
unless you consider wanting to have two communication options in case of catastrophe conservative:)
i have full pantries too.. and i always have extra tp ;~>
September 9, 2008 at 1:45 am #638334
charlabobParticipantWe have land lines because we live in a cell phone black hole and I’ve so far been too cheap to buy a good cell phone.
Old people like JoB and me :-) are OK because we’re certifiably not conservative. I’m interested in how many Obama-demographic people are being missed altogether because polls don’t catch cell-only people.
So far, I’m relieved.
September 9, 2008 at 2:55 am #638335
JanSParticipantwell…my cell phone is mostly used for my business, and for certain select friends and family :)
I’ve had the same landline since 1974..not about to give it up now. It does give me access to my fax machine, and I can turn the ringer off (which I do quite often – lol)
September 9, 2008 at 3:11 am #638336
LightsOutMemberAccording to these comments, it looks like there will be a lot of surprised people on election night again.
I always love the comments about how the right just isn’t smart enough to understand the candidates they vote for. If the left only understood this is why they cannot win a presidential election. It drives people to the polls to make sure their candidate wins
September 9, 2008 at 3:33 am #638337
acemotelParticipantSeptember 9, 2008 at 3:46 am #638338
CPMemberThose polls are then excluding the HUGE amounts of young voters 18-24 (and I don’t know a single person in that age group that has a land line.) So it looks like you’ll have quite the surprise coming on election night, LightsOut.
September 9, 2008 at 4:10 am #638339
addParticipantacemotel, thanks alot for dangling the addictive Mudflats blog in front of me again! I had to stay away after burning several hours reading it over the weekend – it’s very well written, level-headed commenters with interesting links, and a credible background because it’s been around way before Palin got the nomination. *sigh* – now I’m hooked again.
September 9, 2008 at 4:45 am #638340
JoBParticipantoh dear.. should i go back and read more than the headline for info i already knew?
i will be up all night..
i am going to pass till tomorrow.. then i have to see what is so fascinating about mudflats.
just what i need.. one more obsession.
September 9, 2008 at 9:51 pm #638341
RainyDay1235Member>I’ve had the same landline since 1974
Cool. I was born in 1974 (*evil grin*)
True, myself included – I only know two friends that actually have landlines, and those are for non-cable internet. :)
September 9, 2008 at 10:10 pm #638342
JoBParticipantthat’s what we really have ours for:)
September 9, 2008 at 10:20 pm #638343
acemotelParticipantLet’s see what the polls look like after her handlers let her talk to the media. I would love to have seen the tutorials she’s been through the past week.
September 9, 2008 at 10:21 pm #638344
JenVMemberwell, we saw what happened when she is allowed to speak for herself…this should be fun. and by fun I mean excruciating torture.
September 9, 2008 at 10:22 pm #638345
JoBParticipantacemotel.. thanks for the mudflaps link. i posted great info from it on another thread…
September 9, 2008 at 10:25 pm #638346
WSMomParticipantMaybe we should let the world choose our next President…
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