CORONAVIRUS: The Monday 3/16 roundup

| Coronavirus | West Seattle news

Here’s how the day went:

NEWEST KING COUNTY NUMBERS: From today’s Seattle-King County Public Health news release:

Public Health – Seattle & King County is reporting the following confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 through 11:59 p.m. on 3/15/20.

488 confirmed cases (up 68 from yesterday)
43 confirmed deaths (up 6 from yesterday)

These additional deaths include:

A man in his 80s, who died on 3/15
A woman in her 70s, who died on 3/15
A man in his 80s, who died on 3/11
A woman in her 50s, who died 3/8 at Harborview Medical Center
A woman in her 70s, who died on 3/14 at Northwest Hospital
A woman her 90s, a resident of Redmond of Redmond Care & Rehab, who died on 3/12

Of the 43 deaths reported, 29 are confirmed to be associated with Life Care Center.

ANOTHER BRIDGE PARK CASE: Families at Bridge Park in High Point have been told of another COVID-19 case at the senior-living complex.

NEWEST PUBLIC-HEALTH ORDERS: The governor, King and Snohomish County executives, SKCPH leaders, and Seattle’s mayor all gathered for a media briefing late this morning. They discussed the orders issued last night, shutting down a variety of businesses, among them, movie theaters, leading to this:

Here’s our coverage, including video. For the first time since the outbreak began, reporters weren’t allowed in the room – one TV station’s camera provided a feed to anyone interested, and a conference-call phone number was provided for reporters to listen in and to ask questions.

FOOD/BEVERAGE BUSINESSES: As we first reported last night, a major part of the new orders shuts down in-house eating and drinking. Dozens of West Seattle food and beverage businesses have complied with the orders by offering takeout and/or delivery – and telling customers in a variety of ways, including this signage we found on La Rustica‘s door:

We’re still adding to this already-long list of who’s open to offer takeout/delivery.

FINANCIALLY HURTING? Here’s an updated city list of resources, with more promised.

CLOSING THE PRECINCT: In recent years, Seattle Police have kept precinct lobbies open to the public around the clock. Now, the outbreak has closed them.

INFO TO SHARE? westseattleblog@gmail.com or text/voice 206-293-6302 – thank you!

Yma March 16, 2020 (10:04 pm)

I hope, I hope our wonderful West Seattle places can weather this & come back – Admiral Theatre, Meeples, so many wonderful restaurants… It’s a thin margin.

Lisa March 16, 2020 (10:18 pm)

I’m just wondering out loud so please don’t thrash me for this but… is anyone else wondering why we aren’t just quarantining the most at risk people and allowing businesses to stay open? This is killing our economy and will take much longer to recover and much more money than if we had taken this step. I’d argue that more people will die as a result of losing their jobs and healthcare (but that will be difficult to track), than will ultimately die from Covid-19.I can’t help but think that if we had a stronger leader that made better decisions (and not just about early testing), we wouldn’t be in this position.

Zac March 16, 2020 (11:04 pm)

Because not every family is the same. Some members are high risk, and even letting the healthy, low-risk family members go to work poses the risk of them bringing home the virus. Im high risk in my family, but if the tables were turned I would never forgive myself exposing my wife or son to a potentially fatal illness.
- Lisa March 17, 2020 (1:45 pm)
  
  @Zac – with all due respect, my point is to isolate those at risk people. Shield THEM from being infected rather than quarantining the entire nation and shutting down a huge percentage of businesses. Absolutely you don’t want to infect your loved ones. But then you might consider staying home yourself if you are concerned about infecting them. But this entire shut down just doesn’t make sense to me.
Codad March 16, 2020 (11:07 pm)

I don’t think you understand the virus. You can have it and not have symptoms. No fever, nothing for weeks. This is why they are closing everything. Staying home is the only cure. A vaccine will not be available for another year and a lot of people are going to die if people come in contact with others. You can read more about it on the CDC website. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html
- Lisa March 17, 2020 (1:57 pm)
  
  @codad – I absolutely understand the virus and the fact that you can be a carrier with no symptoms. That’s exactly why I think at-risk people should be protected. But lots of people have had the virus and recovered. I KNOW people who have had it and they have said it’s like a really bad flu. Why don’t we shut everything down and restrict movement every flu season? We don’t because it’s not practical and it would ruin our economy. (There have already been between 22,000 and 55,000 REGULAR flu deaths this flu season in the US but that figure is getting ignored.) BTW – clinical trials for a vaccine have already started in the US, China has a vaccine already approved and Israel expects to have one in 8-10 weeks. This is only my opinion but I believe it’s highly unlikely that it will take a year for a vaccine to become available to the general public in the US.
chemist March 17, 2020 (3:17 am)

The data looks like 19% of those who got Covid19 needed hospital-type treatment. 14% of WA state’s ~7.3M population is 65+ years old. WA state just passed 900 confirmed cases and 48 deaths (and some of those confirmed cases will likely die in the next few weeks). It’s just far too easy to become a stealth carrier. If only 5% of WA residents get infected and 19% need weeks of hospital treatment, that’s 66,000 folks (and likely 8,000 deaths using a 2.3% fatality rate). If 50% of WA residents get infected, multiply the results by 10 (and we’ll have long run out of medical treatment facilities so fatalities will be higher). Asking vulnerable folks to quarantine while permitting so many folks around them (who they still come in contact with in reduced capacities) to become carriers isn’t going to be a winning strategy to aim for. So many folks at Life Care Kirkland died, but it’s kind of unlikely that that cluster was started by a international-travelling resident of Life Care Kirkland. It’s likely some non-resident who felt OK-enough brought the virus into the higher-risk facility.
- dcn March 17, 2020 (12:04 pm)
  
  Also, there are people dying who are not in clear high-risk categories. We don’t know exactly who is going to react badly to this virus. That ER doctor at Evergreen is in his 40’s and is in critical condition. More than 50% of people in severe condition in France are under 60: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/487888-more-than-half-of-french-icu-patients-with
  - Lisa March 17, 2020 (2:10 pm)
    
    @DCN – thanks for the link to the article which clearly states, “the virus seems to affect older adults
    and people with underlying medical conditions like heart disease,
    diabetes and lung disease. WHO says early reports suggest illness
    severity is associated with those older than 60.” We don’t know if the ER doc has an underlying condition because no information has been released about him. Just because he’s a doctor, doesn’t make him without an underlying risk.
    - dcn March 17, 2020 (4:15 pm)
      
      @Lisa, do you really think those 50% of cases of people under 60 with severe Covid-19 in France all have underlying conditions? Do some research and you will see that there are many cases of
      people needing hospitalization with no known underlying conditions.
      There was one case here in WA state–a man in his 50’s, if I remember
      right. Do not think this virus won’t surprise you with who it might
      strike with a need for hospitalization.
songstorm March 17, 2020 (5:19 pm)

Infectious disease kills more than just the economy. Attempting to isolate just high-risk populations is a losing battle, because as much as you try to separate them, they still need groceries, medicines, and health care, and these things intersect with segments of the population not considered high risk. The UK originally proposed quarantining high risk individuals for four months while encouraging everyone else to get infected for “herd immunity” and has now abandoned that approach after realizing it “would probably result in the deaths of up to 250,000 people.” The healthcare system is already struggling with under 1,000 infections, tests aren’t available, and while I would like to believe a functioning vaccine would be available in less than a year, just because there is a trial, doesn’t mean it will be successful. Even if China has approved a vaccine for use, doesn’t mean the FDA will allow it into the USA any time soon. Stay home unless you absolutely must go out; to do otherwise is as irresponsible as drinking and getting behind the wheel, but with the potential for a much higher body count.

Sockeye March 16, 2020 (10:40 pm)

These numbers don’t add up to me, and it’s very upsetting that we are willing to destroy our economy and all the affected hard working small business owners of our country over a tiny number of deaths. It feels like irrational math phobia. As a nation of 350 million, we have less than 100 deaths from this pandemic … more people die each year in the US falling off ladders. So sad to watch overreach and over-reaction fuel fear, panic, and economic devastation.

Worried healthcare worker March 16, 2020 (11:01 pm)

Take a walk through the hospitals and then you would understand why. The staff are working non stop. There are hardly enough supplies to keep the workers safe and healthy. God forbid you get appendicitis and need some sterile gloves in your abdomen and a physician who hasn’t already been working too long a day. These things we take for granted are easily disrupted by a flood of patients fighting for their breath. Volunteer at the hospitals downtown and to the north & East. The deaths do not occur until you’ve been sick for a couple of weeks or more usually. Keep an eye on those death numbers over the next few weeks.
- miws March 17, 2020 (7:08 am)
  
  Worried Healthcare Worker, Thank you for your perspective, and a huge thanks to you and all others in your field. I have long had a great deal of respect for people in your field, long, long before this outbreak. And that respect is for all of the difficult work you do, and the hours and energy you put in when there is *not* a health crisis going on. Best of luck to you and all in your field, be safe, do your best to stay healthy, and please try to make some time for yourself, and to treat yourself to something nice. —Mike
CAM March 16, 2020 (11:23 pm)

I have not verified these numbers directly but they appear to be accurate based on what I’ve heard cited in other sources. If we allow this trend to continue unchecked the problem won’t seem so minor to you.
- WSB March 16, 2020 (11:29 pm)
  
  The rate would take a different level of verification but the quoted nation-by-nation totals look accurate based on where things are today (one day later)
  https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Pilsner March 16, 2020 (11:27 pm)

There are more fatalities in auto accidents everyday too.
- Bradley March 17, 2020 (3:37 am)
  
  Your comment is an example of why bars, restaurants, gyms, movie theaters, and night clubs have to close: to keep COVID-19 deniers from causing hundreds of thousands of Americans to die. I trust epidemiologists and the CDC scientists over you folks. Do some research into what Northern Italy is going through. We’re in a similar breakout ground zero here.
- Seltzer March 17, 2020 (3:51 am)
  
  Car accidents are not contagious.
  - Pilsner March 17, 2020 (10:14 am)
    
    My comment was directed at the excessive amount of panic. Not to lessen the severity or make light of the current situation.
    - Concerned HCP March 17, 2020 (6:42 pm)
      
      The biggest reason for all the precautions is to “flatten the curve” or decrease of the number of people requiring hospitalization or ICU level care in the US. There are currently about 196,000 ventilators in the US & thousands of people on them already for various other reasons; if all of a sudden there is a surge is sick people that need the vents to stay alive we will not have enough. There is far fewer ECMO circuits (& people who can operate them) for those who’s lungs completely shut down under the onslaught of the virus. We are still learning about how long the virus lives (in the body or out) and to what extent it effects people, so we’re all taking precautions to limit the number of people that could be severely effected. We’re trying to learn from what is/has happened in China, Iran, Italy, etc. We will not have any idea of real numbers of effected people until it’s all over & we have an idea who was sick & recovered without help in addition to those we’re already seeing. There is also still everything else going on (flu, cancer, trauma, CV disease, etc) that need the healthcare system; this is just in addition to all that. So stay home, don’t go out & eat for a couple weeks, do what you can to help.
- Chris March 17, 2020 (7:10 am)
  
  This virus is so scary because we don’t know how to stop it. Social distancing distancing is the only weapon. Worst case scenario, every person in the world that can be infected becomes infected and 2% die. That would be catastrophic. For those of you who don’t understand why all of this precaution please consider potential consequences. These measures may destroy the economy but they are going to save millions of lives.
My two cents ... March 17, 2020 (6:05 am)

@sockeye – another way of viewing this is akin to an iceberg in that we are just seeing the health impacts for only a small sliver. If the transmission rate continues then the system as a whole becomes more challenging with the ability to treat everyone, to run “business as usual”.
Joel March 17, 2020 (6:32 am)

Exponential growth/spread is the reason. The numbers may be low now but it will spread so fast we cannot handle the wave. This isn’t an overreaction, it is probably a situation of too little too late. ‘Saving tjhe economy’ is important, but, give it a few weeks and we are talking millions dead here.
- Ron Swanson March 17, 2020 (11:28 am)
  
  Absolutely right.
  
  Imagine a pond with a lily pad that reproduces once a day: one becomes two, then two becomes four on the second day, and so forth.If it takes 48 days to cover the pond, when will it be half full? 47 days. And you’ll barely notice they’re there until 40 days. We’re heading towards that exponential curve unless we get things under control.
Lisa March 17, 2020 (2:11 pm)

@sockeye – thank you!

Steve Paul March 16, 2020 (11:10 pm)

What a surreal time of coronavirus…In an effort to support my local neighborhood restaurants and the people who make a living there – I propose we should ‘adopt’ a local restaurant and give them our takeout business on a regular basis. For ths folks who work there its the only source of income for the foreseeable future. (Now that Governor Inslee has decreed that all restaurants close to help contain Covid-19)Give them your business 1 night a week if you can.My choice is that delicious little neighborhood place around the corner from me: Peel and Press! You probably have your own…Im happy to support Alex and the other staff there! (An additional plus is that we dont have to cook for an evening!!…)Won’t you please consider doing the same for the restaurant in your neighborhood? They’re all going to have a hard time over the next little while.Thank you in advance for your help

Rick March 17, 2020 (10:00 am)

I live on that very same block and have been there many times. Looks like I’ll just be going more often now!

Tf March 16, 2020 (11:11 pm)

For those of you asking why this is necessary, please take some time to read this article and watch the simulations. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR1FOqtBg8IAJAVuf83r4VlmlEu1WxdhpGYZpu8S9EmbcXBAPTKIh05VmV8Our healthcare system cannot handle a huge influx of patients needing acute care and that also means that if you or someone you care about needs care that perhaps isn’t even related to covid-19, they may not be able to get it.

alex March 16, 2020 (11:33 pm)

I think we’re all worried about the economy and the people who are out of work. We , as a society, will have to ensure we do right by them. And, yeah, people may die if they lose their healthcare and it’s why we need to provide universal healthcare. It should never be a question. It’s not helpful to call it irrational math phobia, particularly when you don’t understand the math. This virus is very easily transmittable, more so than the flu. King County expects the cases to double every 5–7 days UNLESS we socially isolate and curtail the spread. We have had 43 deaths in King County. Read what Anthony Fauci says about flattening the curve. That’s what public health is trying to do. It’s critical to minimize the number of people who get sick and need ICU care at the same time. People who are seriously ill need ventilators and we just don’t have that many of them. We also don’t want health care providers to have to take care of tons of people getting increased exposure if we can prevent this. So yes, many people will be affected but hopefully, their parents, grandparents and immunocompromised friends will live through this because they socially isolate. The ladder example mises the point of contagion. Comparisons with things like the flu miss the point of “novel” viruses and we will have more of them in the coming years. We can’t just quarantine the people who have tested positive because first, we don’t have enough tests anyhow. Second, the window period may be up to 14 days. Do you remember who and what you casually touched 14 days ago? The median was 5 days I believe. I don’t know who all I saw 5 days ago. I do not disagree that having stronger leadership would be helpful and that the government failed us. But also people understanding the nature of public health and pandemics would be helpful.

Greg March 17, 2020 (12:18 am)

Prepare now. Get out your seat. Buy local. Go get the next few days from Tony’s. In White Center is a good Butcher that knows about sterility. Help your neighbors that are over 60. Make them uncomfortable by asking them to help them. Don’t let them say no. They will. Social distance. Love your best friend. Appreciate that they may be your spouse. Call your Dad. Listen. Call your Mom. Sing! Ask about your Grandma. Cry, then smile. Listen to the old ways.Remember that you pay alot of property taxes to live here and it means nothing if you let your neighbors die when you could have done differently. Prepare now!

Dirt Worker March 17, 2020 (12:33 am)

There are some who have convinced my family that it is unnecessary to prepare for tomorrow. Some believe, with all their heart that there is no good reason to lay in stores of food or wood. Some neighbors tell everyone that this will all be done in a couple weeks. They are Ostriches with their heads in the sand. Their words are powerful. Beware, Loki spreads lies. Be self sufficient.
Catherine March 17, 2020 (1:45 am)

👍🏼
Kari March 17, 2020 (8:22 am)

Love it.

USAT-10 March 17, 2020 (3:04 am)

If you know anyone in Europe, ask them how it’s working out for them there. They are approximately 10 days ahead of us in the outbreak. They wish they would have shut things down earlier. This virus does not care about the economy. Being broke is better than being dead.

Healthcare worker March 17, 2020 (10:56 am)

I work in a local hospital on First Hill. Our ICU’s are full. Get it? FULL. We are now preparing other spaces in our hospital not intended to be set up as an overflow ICU, to care for the influx of sick patients that are being admitted due to this virus! Social distancing, and staying away from others in general,as instructed, is the only way this is going to work and slow this virus down. If you are still going out and not adhering to these new rules, (other than to get essential items etc) please, for the love of God, stop it!

flimflam March 17, 2020 (11:09 am)

thanks for your work and also first-hand info – protect yourself as much as its possible.

dcn March 17, 2020 (12:16 pm)

When I had my tonsils out in late July 2 summers ago, I had to stay the night. The hospital where I had the surgery had no hospital room beds to move me to for the night, so I had to sleep in the recovery area, with just a curtain between me and all the goings-on in the surgical ward. It was a miserable night. I recall it now, since hospitals can be overfull even in summer, when seasonal flu activity is low. I deeply fear what is going to happen within our hospitals over the next several weeks.