The Election: Inside Baseball

[mellaw6565]

Wikipedia is inherently unreliable and I do not let my students use it as a source when doing their research projects.

I wish people on here would stop using it too.

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[Zenguy]

It does not need to be that controversial, if I post something that is wrong and no one catches it…

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[JoB]

gosh mellaw6565..

you are going to actually make me dig for info?

it was so easy to just site wikipedia… and know that they only scratched the surface… when i needed to site something to quell the latest nonsense:)

i do like them for overview.. and then i start the digging at their sources…

as much as they are disparaged, they are at least as accurate as the encyclopedias mom bought for me when i was a kid and asked too many questions.

and still.. the local librarian made me look it up for myself and not just take someone else’s word for what the source said.. and what it meant:)

You can all blame her for the pain in the neck i am some days ;~>

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[Jenny]

RealClearPolitics Average for the last few days:

POPULAR VOTE:

09/08 - McP +2.9

09/10 - McP +2.2

09/11 - McP +2.5

09/13 - McP +2.4

09/15 - McP +1.6

09/16 - McP +1.3

In the Electoral College, McP is still up by +20. (No change since 9/14.)

Below are the toss-ups, plus the leaners, in order of the latest state polls according to RCP. The ones whose polls are most out of date should be the most due for a new poll to come out.

LEANING McCAIN. If one of these states becomes a toss-up, McCain loses their EVs; Obama has stopped the bleeding:

IN 8/30  11

MT 9/08   3

ND 9/08   3

MO 9/11  11

FL 9/14  27

TOSS-UPS. Either campaign could change their EVs by moving a state from this category into Leading XXX:

NM 9/08   5

NH 9/09   4

MI 9/10  17

NV 9/11   5

MN 9/12  10

PA 9/14  21

OH 9/14  20

VA 9/14  13

CO 9/14   9

LEANING OBAMA. If one of these states becomes a toss-up, Obama loses their EVs; the bleeding continues:

WI 9/07  10

OR 8/09   7

WA 9/10  11

IA 9/10   7

NJ 9/14  15

There have been several polls from the battleground states since my last listing, but it didn’t look like there was much movement in any of them. As you can see, 4 out of the 9 tossup states had polls reported on 9/14 (Sunday) – and some of these had more than one.

So it still looks like any movement on the EV front should come from those states that are due for new polls to get reported: Indiana, Montana, N. Dakota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, & Oregon. Since these older polls are from before Palin-o-mania caught hold, I’d expect McP to gain another 10-20 EVs in the next week. But since the daily popular vote polls are drifting back down, it’s possible that could represent McP’s high-water mark at least until the debates start happening.

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[Jenny]

Just for fun, check out this RCP page that lists all the presidential polls that have reported the totals for Ralph Nader & Bob Barr:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html

These polls show McCain up by +2.0 over Obama, which is close to what the horse race polls say. They show Nader at 2.0% & Barr at 1.4%.

RCP doesn’t show the running graph of historical RCP averages for these polls like they do in the horse race pages, but it does show Nader got 6% in three CNN polls in June/July, with an average of maybe 4%. Barr got one 6% from Rasmussen in May, mostly getting 2/3/4’s in June/July. Both of them started fading in August, and then dropped to where they are now at the beginning of September.

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[Jenny]

RealClearPolitics Average for the last few days:

POPULAR VOTE:

09/10 - McP by   2.2

09/11 - McP by   2.5

09/13 - McP by   2.4

09/15 - McP by   1.6

09/16 - McP by   1.3

09/17 - (tied)

09/18 - Obama by 1.9

In the Electoral College, McP is now up by +14. (Down 6 since 9/16.)

Below are the toss-ups, plus the leaners, in order of the latest state polls according to RCP. The ones whose polls are most out of date should be the most due for a new poll to come out.

LEANING McCAIN. If one of these states becomes a toss-up, it’s a net gain for Obama:

MT 9/08   3

ND 9/08   3

MO 9/11  11

NC 9/14  15 from Solid McCain (9/17)

FL 9/16  27

TOSS-UPS. Either campaign could change their EVs by moving a state from this category into Leaning XXX:

NH 9/09   4

MI 9/10  17

NV 9/11   5

PA 9/14  21

OH 9/14  20

VA 9/14  13

CO 9/14   9

IN 9/14  11 from Leaning McCain (9/18)

WI 9/15  10 from Leaning Obama (9/17)

LEANING OBAMA. If one of these states becomes a toss-up, it’s a net gain for McCain:

WA 9/10  11

IA 9/10   7

MN 9/12  10 from Leaning Obama to Tossup (9/17), back to Leaning Obama (9/18)

NJ 9/14  15

OR 9/15   7

NM 9/16   5 from Tossup (9/18)

Just a few new polls from the battleground states in the last 2 days. Not much net movement. But how about that Minnesota – goes from leaning Obama to tossup and back to Leaning Obama in 2 days!

Still waiting to see if new polls come out in those states that are due for new ones: Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, N. Dakota, Michigan.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight.com’s EV projections have flipped today – from McCain up by over 30 to Obama up by 31.6.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

And Karl Rove (http://www.rove.com) yesterday had McCain up by 9 EVs.

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[JoB]

anybody know how to turn off the lights in here?

i need a nap.

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[JanS]

I think that if you want to know the latest polls, we don’t need to post things on here…just go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com and see for yourself.

I think I’d like to put this in a thread called “Lies, lies, and more lies”, but this is as good as any…are parts of this nation so ignorant that they will believe anything? Don’t answer…I’d like to be deluded for just a little while longer…

anyway..here’s a good read…sad, though..

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/opinion/21kristof.html?th&emc=th

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