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September 13, 2008 at 6:35 am #588052
JennyMemberHere’s a thread where we can discuss the election specifically in terms of the tactics of the various campaigns.
What I’m thinking of here is things like analyzing the latest poll results, Electoral College standings, advertising tactics, etc. That is, we could discuss campaign ads, but concentrating more on WHY a particular campaign decided to run the ad as opposed to whether it’s fair, a dirty lie, etc.
September 13, 2008 at 6:47 am #639034
mellaw6565MemberObama’s new TV ad today: done for the purpose of highlighting McCain’s age and how out of touch he is with technology driven America.
September 13, 2008 at 6:55 am #639035
JennyMemberMcCain has produced two ads that I think hit below the belt. I think the lipstick on a pig ad was embarrassing. But most of my right-wing friends agree with Victor Davis Hanson’s argument (that Obama knew or should’ve known that people would connect the pig w/pit-bull Palin, and that Obama also talked about “an old fish wrapped in a piece of paper called change” was a reference to McCain).
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZjhkNmYzOTVkNDgwNGFmNzEzNjc0ZDVkMDMxNWY2NjI=
Then there’s the ad claiming that Obama wanted to teach sex-ed to kindergartners, when apparently the truth is that for that age level the “sex ed” would amount to talking about good touch vs. bad touch, which seems perfectly defensible to me – certainly nothing like what’s implied by saying he “wants to teach sex ed to kindergartners”.
So I’m thinking: Is McCain’s campaign trying to goad Obama into wasting his money responding to these ads at a time when Obama’s running low on cash?
Or are they simply trying to get Obama to start whining more? Did they realize Obama would spend two more days than he should have in complaining about the unfairness of the lipstick ad, thus bringing more attention to it? I mean, he could have simply given a “I’m sorry if a common expression that I thought was perfectly innocent was misconstrued by some” statement & moved on.
I wonder about this because these ads are very unlike McCain’s previous anti-Obama ads.
So what do you think the motivation was behind these ads? And do you think they help explain McCain’s continuing rise in the daily polls?
September 13, 2008 at 6:58 am #639036
mellaw6565MemberIt’s always better to be offense than defense. That’s McCain’s strategy – that way he gets to control the subject and tone of the campaign.
It’s like the boxers who keep backtracking so their opponent wears himself out chasing them around. I think Obama is smart enough to not take the bait – he’ll always respond/refute, but his best tactic is to keep pounding away at the issues and bring the McCain camp’s real agenda out in the open.
September 13, 2008 at 7:26 am #639037
JennyMemberSpeaking of polls, Real Clear Politics keeps their list up to the minute, it seems.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
NATIONAL: Last 2 likely voter (LV) polls have McP up by +3 & +4. Last 3 registered voter (RV) polls have McP at -1, +3, and tied.
WA: McCain now within 3% of Obama (avg of 2 very recent polls). WOO HOO! Oh, sorry, no woohooing on the Inside Baseball thread. But can it really be? Can Washington State really be in play??? That hasn’t happened here in MANY years. We might actually be seeing a lot of the candidates stop by, more than once.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wa/washington_mccain_vs_obama-576.html
September 13, 2008 at 7:44 am #639038
TrickParticipantJenny,
It’s clear McCain’s camp likes to divert the issues that are at stake.
Unfortunately, it seems to work since every network talked about Kindergarten sex ed and lipstick on a pig…
What wasn’t played much, was that Obama refuted these (clearly if you saw the whole clip) and said that the ads were simply to take away the attention that is at stake which is… The economy, but ratings aren’t generated by such merose subjects I guess.
September 13, 2008 at 7:11 pm #639039
JennyMemberMichael Barone on how “lipstick on a pig” shows the McCain campaign’s ability to deftly put Obama on defense:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/mccain_flies_his_campaign_past.html
Whether you think that’s “brilliant” or just “taking the low road” on Team McP’s part is up to you. :) I think it’s a bit of both. But it certainly means that Dems are wrong to misunderestimate McCain & Palin.
September 13, 2008 at 7:19 pm #639040
JennyMemberFor the first time, RealClearPolitics today has McCain leading in Electoral College: +10.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count.html
This is due to FL going from Toss Up to Leaning McCain on 9/11, and IN going there on 9/13. Until yesterday Obama had been up by +1.
RCP’s list of current toss-ups:
PA (21)
OH (20)
MI (17)
VA (13)
CO (9)
NM (5)
NV (5)
NH (4)
September 13, 2008 at 7:40 pm #639041
JennyMemberHere are the toss-ups, plus the leaners, in order of the latest state polls according to RCP. The ones whose polls are most out of date should be the most due for a new poll to come out.
LEANING McCAIN. If one of these states becomes a toss-up, McCain loses their EVs; Obama has stopped the bleeding:
IN 8/30 11
MT 9/08 3
ND 9/08 3
FL 9/10 27
MO 9/11 11TOSS-UPS. Either campaign could change their EVs by moving a state from this category into Leading XXX:
NM 9/08 5
NH 9/09 4
PA 9/09 21
VA 9/09 13
CO 9/10 9
MI 9/10 17
OH 9/10 20
NV 9/11 5LEANING OBAMA. If one of these states becomes a toss-up, Obama loses their EVs; the bleeding continues:
OR 8/07 7
IA 9/02 7
MN 9/02 10
WI 9/07 10
NJ 9/08 15
WA 9/10 11This is curious: RCP moved Indiana into a toss-up today, but they list the latest poll as 8/30. Maybe IN’s latest poll hasn’t been added to the master list yet.
Overall, it’s the Leaning Obama states that have the most out-of-date polls. So look for new polls from Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, &/or Wisconsin soon.
September 13, 2008 at 8:05 pm #639042
JennyMemberGah, check out this piece from Politico. It goes into why McCain’s descended onto the low road: They tried the high road, but the media wouldn’t cover their message unless he made a gaffe. So in frustration they started going on the attack – and only THEN did they finally start to get any major coverage. And then came Palin. So now they’re milking the negativity for all it’s worth, until they finally have to go back to what was their original focus – the actual issues – when the debates come up.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13412_Page2.html
For the most part I think their attacks on Obama were valid (except for the last two silly ones), but man, does that say a lot about the media today or what? (Or is it the audience who’s ultimately at fault? If more people really did care about the issues & the candidates’ visions, and followed politics enough to ignore the “gotcha scandals”, then the media would follow, wouldn’t they?)
September 13, 2008 at 9:16 pm #639043
JanSParticipantJenny, I have acquaintances who think that Mrs. Palin is “refreshing”, that she adds to the fray, and is making them think that they want to vote for McCain. When I ask them about how she feels about issues, and if it agrees with how they feel about the issues that are important to them, a good number have literally looked at me and said “I haven’t looked into that”. Huh? Yeah…I think there are quite a few people among us who simply see a new face, think she’s cute (men I know), that she’s “one of us” (so are my friends, but I don’t want them to be VP either – lol)but haven’t a clue as to how well she can handle the job or her knowledge about the economy, foreign policy, etc., etc. Totally amazing to me…and these are people who are educated, make more than the proverbial 250K on occasion…go figure.
September 13, 2008 at 9:23 pm #639044
TrickParticipantI’m tired of always blaming the media.
Maybe it’s because McCains message wasn’t anything new?
McCain should take full responsibility on maybe his platform rather than mudslinging to detract from his Republican message.
Unfortunately, Obama will now start hitting hard, despite his unwillingness to do so from the beginning. Being on the defensive on Lipstick and Sex ed for Kindergartners was just plain evil.
I always liked how Obama kept his message going despite the smears, but at this point, I’m for him hitting back at McCain and playing the republican game. It does seem to work, and it’s not the media, it’s a large segment of the american public who thirsts for rumors, soundbites and innuendo’s.
September 13, 2008 at 9:30 pm #639045
JanSParticipantyeah, a good sex scandal trumps a bad economy every time, huh……makes one want to cry…
September 13, 2008 at 9:42 pm #639046
JoBParticipantJenny..
“until they finally have to go back to what was their original focus – the actual issues – when the debates come up”
please document when their focus was on actual issues..
i don’t remember much from the Republican side but rumors, soundbites and innuendos
September 13, 2008 at 9:48 pm #639047
TrickParticipantJanS,
But of course we don’t hear about John’s mulitiple affairs during his first marriage, that’s taboo. When he speaks that country come’s first, then I guess Cindy skipped the line.
The Arizona Republic reported:
September 13, 2008 at 10:06 pm #639048
charlabobParticipantFor McCain to whine about media coverage is quite amazing — is this the guy who used to call them his base? They sure haven’t changed.
My theory is that McCain is trying to get Obama, specifically, and perhaps Michelle, to lose their tempers. Nothing scares white America(sic) more than the angry black man and he is not that. The “inside baseball” here is that, bottom line, will we elect a black man to the presidency?
I’m not too worried about polls yet — I’m more worried about caging — about the percentage of new voters already disenfranchised in red states.
The concept of “likely voters” is skewed in the same was other polls are — it assumes that the same folks who have always gone to the polls will go this time. I won’t bore you with the math, but statistics are always behind the curve.
September 13, 2008 at 10:13 pm #639049
charlabobParticipantHere is a question that drives the inside baseball tactics. Do you want your president or vice president to be “someone like you?” Or someone smarter, more nuanced, more “worldly” than you will ever be?
I’ve believed for a while that we can’t discuss issues because issues are too complex and we don’t want to think about them. I don’t think that’s because people are stupid — I think we’re lazy. And we get the government we deserve, based on that laziness.
September 14, 2008 at 4:09 am #639050
AnonymousInactiveNew website by the DNC to coincide with ad linking 170 lobbyists to McCain the reformer:
McLobbyist
September 14, 2008 at 7:52 am #639051
JennyMemberSeptember 14, 2008 at 7:59 am #639052
JennyMemberLooks like Minnesota is now a tossup:
A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state.
…
The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.
Conducted a week after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul, …
But the Minnesota Poll found that the choice of Palin was essentially a wash among the state’s voters.
September 14, 2008 at 6:20 pm #639053
JennyMember…and today RCP declares Minnesota a toss-up, making it McCain +20.
In other news, on the generic congressional ballot, the Republicans are now consistenly within single digits of the Democrats.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html
See also: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx
It looks like the GOP started moving up in late August. I think it has got to be totally because of the Dem leadership’s goofy – and doomed – stance on offshore drilling.
According to Wikipedia, 23 GOP Senate seats are up for grabs and 12 Dem seats.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008
September 14, 2008 at 7:36 pm #639054
JoBParticipantJenny…
it seems you aren’t really interested in your original stated purpose for this thread…
“discuss the election specifically in terms of the tactics of the various campaigns.”
Your link in post 19 .. left no doubt as to your intentions… just couldn’t resist could you.
i think the idea for the thread was good.
it’s too bad you chose not to support your own good idea.
McCain may be up in the polls right now, but i wouldn’t expect that to last long. The polls will fluctuate a lot before this election is over.
However, your gloating seems to have had unintended consequences… so i wanted to say thank you.
it’s good to remind the local Obama campaign that their vote does matter…
September 14, 2008 at 10:54 pm #639055
JennyMember> Your link in post 19 .. left no doubt as to your intentions… just couldn’t resist could you.
LOL, yeah, I knew some people wouldn’t appreciate the humor.
September 14, 2008 at 11:21 pm #639056
ZenguyParticipantWhy do people insist on listing Wikipedia as credible references? Wiki is truth by consensus, if no one challenges it, it stands.
September 15, 2008 at 1:25 am #639057
JennyMemberWikipedia is a great place to start a search. I certainly don’t consider it definitive, esp. on controversial subjects. Surely the number of GOP & Dem senators up for reelection isn’t all that controversial? :)
(p.s. I actually checked RCP & CNN for that info first.)
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