Double-Dip Recession Coming?

[Jiggers]

A lot of indicators are pointing that way. Watch this video interview of Dave Rosenberg voice of Wall Street. You may learn something here.

Watch video,

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/13/bearish-analyst-sees-50-chance-of-double-dip/

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[Smitty]

The similarities between now and 1930 – when they had yet to enter the Great Depression – are scary.

Let’s hope things change from this point forward.

http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-great-depression#february-2-1930-market-recovering-faster-than-expected-1

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[JayDee]

Look, part of the problem is the discussion in the first place–it can be self-fulfilling.

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If we can get lending to small businesses loosened up and deal with the $1 trillon of business loans coming up for renewal in the next 3-4 years, things should improve. The paralysis in the other Washington about taking action (re: deficit or stimulus) is the scary parallel.

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I won’t say “Don’t worry be happy” but lets not fret our way into a DD recession.

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[JoB]

there is plenty of cash in America to head off a double dip recession. Banks and America’s top 1% are sitting on that cash instead of lending it, investing it or spending it.

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[Jiggers]

JoB..Banks are under a huge microscope now. They don’t want to be regulated by mommy and daddy. So, they aren’t going to repeat the same mistake in lending every Tom,Dick and Harry money. The government and feds aren’t doing more than they should right now. Consumer spending is at an all time low. Credit is very hard to get now. There is no grease so to say on the wheels. The realitiy is even if you are working and still paying your bills and mortgage, you are going backwards. 40 year old somethings when hit their fifties, are going to say were did it all go? People have to realize that you maybe working for nothing the next ten years. That maybe reality. And in the meantime, the deficit continues to mushroom at a rate with no end in sight to it.

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[JoB]

Jiggers..

banks are sitting on their money because there isn’t much money in lending right now… and they are used to making those big bucks flipping loans..

not because of regulation.

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[FullTilt]

I think you should watch this video. It explains it all much more clearly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnp4kj5lLOU

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[Smitty]

I agree with you JayDee, but part of the problem has been the mainstream media cheerleading this administration and this economy for 18 months. Well, the chickens are coming home to roost.

Obamacare regulations has big business VERY worried. The threat of increased taxes has the spenders very worried. The fear of losing their job has Joe six-pac worried.

I sit in the rooms where the decisions are being made – and we (a fortune 500 company) are laying more people off in fiscal 11 (and we have weathered this thing pretty well).

Things need to change, because hope and change aint working.

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[Carson]

Smitty, did you really quote something from Business Insider? Thats laughable at best, and I am being kind. They are like the right wing version of the National Enquirer married to Fox News!! Nothing but a propaganda machine.

Not sure why you think you can fix 8 years of poor decisions in 18 months.

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[HMC Rich]

No you probably can’t fix “8 years of poor decisions in 18 months” but you can make it worse in 18 months.

I have been away for a bit.

If we didn’t love our country and community we wouldn’t be exchanging ideas. If we are honest maybe on some issues we can agree. But we don’t have to.

Stay Cool

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[Carson]

You can make it worse, and if we had elected McCain, I shudder to even think where we might be today. Either way, at this point, its just a banter, decisions made today don’t effect us for years and even then, even the best economists will never agree. Whats a fact is Bush was delivered what seemed to be a pretty good economy. 8 years later, it wasn’t so good. In 2016 we can judge Obama by the same yardstick and see what job he did. Until then, its all a guess by me, you and everyone else.

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[JoB]

Smitty…

it’s too bad you are sitting in that room “where decisions are made” and not talking about investing in America…

because short sighted short term profit taking is what is killing America…

Everyone stopped thinking about what they were making and focused solely on profits to make wall street happy.

there is only so much cream to skim off industries who are no longer producing…

The day fortune 500 companies start putting people back to work producing something besides money is the day this economy turns around.

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[JoB]

Full Tilt..

there you go poking another hole in my bubble…

i though i acquired wisdom through living…

and it was in my cartoons all along :)

1943..

we could learn something from good old Walt

unless of course i have been had again by clever editing ;)

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[HMC Rich]

Carson, think what you will, but if unemployment stays high, President Obama will be out in 2013. It might be strange but a Republican held congress and him in office just might save his presidency. Too early to tell.

Regardless, Obama and crew are not being fiscally responsible right now. So if Bush and Cheney were bad, what do you call this?

What do you propose to change the situation? Bigger Blame Bush signs?

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[JoB]

HMCRich…

i am far more worried about the nation than Obama’s presidency…

if the republicans try to accomplish even a quarter of what they are currently promising..

the country will be far more focused on the great depression of our age than the presidential elections by the time they roll around.

it’s time to pull political heads out of that deep dark place they have been…

and to start asking why Obama’s failure is considered a good thing by republicans if the failure of the nation is the yardstick by which it is measured.

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[Carson]

I am not worried about 2012. Obama could be a better leader for sure, but until the right comes up with a solid, non tea bag candidate no worries. Are they going to run out Romney again? Mike “I let Maurice Clemons out” “Huckabee or Bobby “who needs volcano warning systems” Jindahl. Palin and others are just another name for Perot or Nader, thats like just handing Obama another 4 years!!!

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[Smitty]

Carson,

Is the chart from business insider wrong or factually incorrect?

JoB,

I’m waiting for the D’s to start blaming big biz for sitting on their cash. They are sitting on cash because they are uncertain. Uncertain about Obamacare regulations, taxes, and there is a real fear that these guys simply don’t have a clue.

I agree that people and big biz need to start spending and investing, but they are not going to do it in this environment with this administration.

Thanks

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[JoB]

Smitty..

there is one area where big business in not sitting on their cash at all…

the political arena.

they are lining up in droves to dump boatloads of the cash that is too scary for them to invest …

into political campaigns…

where they can be sure of getting a huge return on their investment.

“I agree that people and big biz need to start spending and investing, but they are not going to do it in this environment with this administration.

They aren’t uncertain about Obama regulations and taxes.. they are purposefully withholding investment in this economy for the political advantage they would get from a party shift…

so guess who they are backing with all that cash?

They are backing the folks whose penchant for deregulation and corporate welfare just about totally upended our economy by pandering to corporate greed.

is it because they are so addicted to short term profits that they are too stupid to see that they are killing the goose that laid their golden eggs…

can they see only that there might some more short term profit to be had from the goose…

I believe they are so invested in Obamas political failure..

in gaining a edge that they think will return them to their former profitability..

that they have failed to look at the consequences of pushing this nation into that double dip depression.. or possibly beyond.

i think Alan Greenspan said it all when he commented that he just didn’t believe that American businesses would be so greedy as to destroy their own businesses with their greed.

Well.. they could. The public bailout of the banking system in this country is proof postive of that..

and if we weren’t sure.. the return to some of the policies that sank them in the fist place should confirm it.

and you think we should turn what is left of this country over to them ?

I think that would be pretty stupid for anyone who isn’t one of that elusive top 2% who are making big bucks off everyone else’s current misery.

And i think it’s more stupid for that level of management that aspires to the top 2% but never quite reaches it… too afraid of losing their jobs to question the policies that are bankrupting the company.. and their nation… but enriching a select few.

Unless your money is all sunk in something far more valuable than gold and stored in an exceedingly safe place..

didn’t your mother explain to you that you really can’t hide dirt under the rug indefinitely?

besides… that’s your retirement those clowns are sniffing after…

you’re the only ones with money left to loot.

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[k]

smitty-lemme guess…SBUX.

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[Jiggers]

This recession has never recovered correctly. They tried to, but it’s backfiring. Its been three years now and will be another five years with this current Administration being the watchdog. If you have a job still, you maybe working for nothing for 8 years. Better save all the cash you make for the next 5 years.

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[JoB]

Jiggers…

the govt did it’s part making sure banks had money to lend and making money available at incredible rates.. a part it is still doing.

unfortunately.. banks have paid America back by tightening credit for even the credit worthy…

i think it is going to take a small business loan program to start things moving again.

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[Jiggers]

The best small business right now to be in would be opening a bar.

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[JoB]

believe it or not

ice cream and lipstick do better in a recession :)

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[Smitty]

Canned food and guns, people.

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[DP]

Smitster: You say banks are sitting on their money because they’re worried about the business climate (taxes, regulations, etc.).

Maybe so. Is it also possible that they just want Obama to fail? If so, we could be in for some dreary times ahead.

I’m not really trying to make a point, just want your opinion—as a decision maker. ;-)

—DP

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