35 Replies to "PANDEMIC UPDATES: Weekly check-in #18, 11/7/2021"

• West Seattle Mad Sci Guy November 8, 2021 (8:39 am)

  Surprised there are 15ish percent of people still unvaccinated. Especially given it’s your ticket to restaurants these days. They are really determined to hold out. 

• Howdy November 8, 2021 (9:45 am)

  Well over the ‘variable’ herd immunity numbers. The pandemic is over. Time to start taking off mask and getting back to normal. If you’re vaccinated you’re protected, if you are not, then you probably are not going to get vaccinated. Question, if not now, when are we going to be able remove masks? What magic number do we have to reach? Just wondering.

  • heartless November 8, 2021 (10:35 am)

    ” If you’re vaccinated you’re protected, if you are not, then you probably are not going to get vaccinated.”

    But that’s not true.  I don’t know why you are ignoring kids aged 5 to 11.  There are nearly 200,000 of them in King County, and they only just got access to a vaccine–barely any of them have had a chance to get vaccinated yet.

    As to your question about being “able to remove masks” (an odd phrasing you chose, not really sure which adults can’t just take off a mask if they want!)–wouldn’t it be the kind and decent thing to wait until those children aged 5-11 have had a chance to get vaccinated?    

  • wsperson November 8, 2021 (11:01 am)

    Community transmission is still high, maybe when that goes down? I don’t know but the percentage of hospital beds filled in King County is on target so maybe they want to keep that on target by continuing to mask while transmission is high.

  • Buddy November 8, 2021 (11:16 am)

    I not exactly sure we are really ready for any herd immunity in Washington state, because just drive up to like around the area of Lynden, Washington and towns in Eastern Washington you will understand why, lots of people have not gotten their Covid vaccine. You also have to understand that many people travel in between states and countries and people who don’t even travel need to be immunized because they are in contact with people from other areas. The magic number will occur once the entire world gets Covid under control!! 

  • psps November 8, 2021 (12:05 pm)

    Sorry, but no. For example, the vaccination rate for measles is well over 90% and delta is more contagious than measles.

    • ACG November 8, 2021 (10:16 pm)

      I’m curious about your statement that Delta is more contagious than measles. Can you please cite where you got that information?  

      • AMD November 9, 2021 (7:09 am)

        It’s not more contagious than measles.  The delta variant has a reproduction rate of about 5 (roughly double the original strain).  Measles’s reproduction rate varies quite a bit depending on which study you’re citing, but the range is 10-15+.  That said, Howdy’s assertion that the pandemic is “over” based on King County vaccination rates is incredibly flawed.  We’d basically have to bar the unvaccinated from entering King County in order for our vaccination rates to be at all relevant in the discussion about herd immunity.  This means closing the docks and airports to tourists, at a huge cost to the local businesses that rely on tourist spending to thrive.  It means anyone who works in King County but lives elsewhere would have to quit their job, or work from home indefinitely.  Just passing through King County to get to your final destination?  Have fun going around!  The reality is, one locality being super vaccinated isn’t enough to achieve herd immunity.  Other parts of the state and country need to get on board as well.  Wearing a mask is annoying, but a small price to pay to keep businesses open and allow free travel in and out of the county.

      • heartless November 9, 2021 (9:43 am)

        ACG, others:

        It’s not as contagious as Measles–basically nothing is (thankfully). 

        People throw around a couple different numbers, but in general Delta is considered about on par with Chickenpox, with each person spreading it to somewhere between 5 and 9 others.  Measles is just crazy contagious, it’s way out on its own with an R nought around 15, just insane.

        If you’ve access to the NYT they have a neat little graph in this article:

        https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/covid-cdc-delta-masks.html

        • ACG November 9, 2021 (11:24 am)

          Thanks, heartless!!  Appreciate the clarification. Measles has a crazy high R0, which is why I wanted to question the OP to see if they had something valid backing that claim.  Appreciate you taking the time to get the correct info out there. 

• Della November 8, 2021 (11:07 am)

  In agreement with Howdy. In the EU, they can’t enter any indoor space where there’s seating without a registered QR code showing their vaccine status. And they then aren’t required to wear a mask. Common sense!

  • Trickyoolj November 8, 2021 (6:01 pm)

    And Covid is currently on the rise with ICUs filling up rapidly in Germany again.  And here’s another round of worry about my late-80s grandmother that I haven’t been able to see since 2018.

  • S.A. November 9, 2021 (12:05 pm)

    why are you all so mad about the masks?

• Brian November 8, 2021 (11:43 am)

  Maybe at least wait for the children who only just became eligible for vaccination to develop immunity from the two shot course before we go full mask off? 

  • Jason November 8, 2021 (1:00 pm)

    Totally agree.  Mine got their shots the second day it was available and most of their friends are in the process to get this done.  Kids like to eat in restaurants, go bowling and watch movies too.  Give it a few months and they’ll be covered as well.  

• Ant November 8, 2021 (12:53 pm)

  A point of clarification for the folks who clearly don’t have kids. 5 and above just started and will need until early December until the first wave of early appointment takers can reach full potential. For many of us with kids younger than 5, the pandemic is still very much here and we will be acting as such. Seeing that West Seattle has many, many youngsters you can start to see why people question the “pandemic is over” assumptions. Please do me a favor and keep your mask on. Thank you.

• curiousquestioner November 8, 2021 (1:58 pm)

  The sad and inconvenient truth is that the current covid vaccines do *not* interrupt the transmission of covid throughout the community. the data shows that, if vaccinated, you are less likely to suffer more dire consequences of covid. However, what we are seeing is that these vaccines do little to stop transmission person to person. This should be concerning to anyone who understands how mutations work. Cloth masks are like leather helmets worn in the NFL years ago

  • heartless November 8, 2021 (3:27 pm)

    “Vaccinated people are less likely to spread Covid, new research finds”

    “People who are vaccinated against Covid-19 are less likely to spread the virus even if they become infected, a new study finds, adding to a growing body of evidence that vaccines can reduce transmission of the delta variant.”

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccinated-people-are-less-likely-spread-covid-new-research-finds-n1280583

    • Curiousquestioner November 8, 2021 (5:20 pm)

      65% less likely. That means nearly half of vaccinated contact could be passing on a viral load, allowing it an opportunity to mutate. 

      • heartless November 8, 2021 (7:41 pm)

        You might not be familiar with medical literature, but something being 65% less likely is ABSOLUTELY HUGE.

        You wrote:
        “…these vaccines do little to stop transmission person to person.”
        And that’s completely wrong.  Vaccines do a lot to stop transmission: they reduce it by well over half. 

        That’s great and it should be celebrated–not downplayed, ignored, or derided. 

        You should be ashamed of yourself for lying about the effectiveness of these vaccines.

        • curiousquestioner November 9, 2021 (1:52 pm)

          I should be shamed for pointing out what could be a serious flaw in our response to covid? Really?Yes, 65% is not an insignificant number. Imagine if that was the efficacy of something like a seat belt. or birth control. or the lock on your front door. Would that mean they were meaningless? Absolutely not. Would it mean you should reject the 65%? NO. I am pointing out a FACT that puts us ALL at risk. The vaccines we have developed don’t do enough, IMO, to interrupt the possible vectors for mutations. I’m concerned about the possibility that a new variant will arise that is much more resistant to our current prevention and treatment protocols. If you want to shame me for that, go right ahead if it makes you feel better than me. Doesn’t change the facts, tho.  

        • heartless November 9, 2021 (3:53 pm)

          Curiousquestioner:
          This will be my last reply to you in this thread, because, whooo boy, you’re a difficult one.  But here we go.

          “I should be shamed for pointing out what could be a serious flaw in our response to covid?”

          You should be ashamed of repeatedly, falsely denigrating the efficacy of vaccines.  That is spreading misinformation that jeopardizes lives.  And yes, that is shameful.  Really.

          “Imagine if that was the efficacy of something like a seat belt.”

          Sigh.  Seatbelts reduce death by only 45%, and moderate injuries by only 50%.  If seatbelts somehow reached 65% effectiveness that’d be amazing.  You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about.

          “I am pointing out a FACT that puts us ALL at risk.”

          Calling something a fact does not make it a fact.  You claimed that the vaccines don’t reduce transmission.  That was not a fact then, is not a fact now, and will not be a fact tomorrow.  Vaccines are a huge factor in reducing transmission.

          “The vaccines we have developed don’t do enough, IMO, to interrupt the possible vectors for mutations. ”

          Sure, and that’s why we also wear masks, socially distance, and etc.  But that’s not what your initial point was about.  It was about you claiming vaccines do “little” to stop transmission.  And that’s not true, and that’s what I called you on. 

          “I’m concerned about the possibility that a new variant will arise that is much more resistant to our current prevention and treatment protocols. If you want to shame me for that, go right ahead if it makes you feel better than me.”

          That’s a fine thing to be concerned about, go right ahead and worry.  I would never think you should be ashamed of having that concern.  Once again, my point was this: you should feel shame for repeatedly spouting false information about the effectiveness of the vaccines.  Nobody but nobody is criticizing you for worrying about variants.  Good lord.

      • OneTimeCharley November 9, 2021 (7:28 am)

        Versus 0% less likely in the unvaccinated? That means all of the unvaccinated contact could be passing on a viral load, allowing it an opportunity to mutate. . What’s your point again CQ?

• Mj November 8, 2021 (5:47 pm)

  Ant I have a 4 year old, my wife and I are fully vaccinated, and I for one am not overly concerned with Covid.

• Joe Z November 8, 2021 (10:38 pm)

  As I commented in a previous article, my kid’s daycare (I’m not naming the daycare but it is in West Seattle) just had a huge COVID outbreak in October and basically everyone who came in close contact with my kid also ended up testing positive. The virus spreads like wildfire even among vaccinated people, it will knock you out for the better part of a week, and you’ll have to watch your kid for 2-3 weeks while you are barricaded inside eating delivery food while watching Netflix in bed all day and night while your kid runs wild around the house. Just sharing my personal experience here…yes, you’re probably not going to get seriously sick or die from COVID if you are healthy+vaccinated but it doesn’t mean you won’t have a miserable time. I hate the stupid masks too but the virus is still everywhere. I could give you a long list of businesses that my kid was at when she was contagious and we didn’t know it yet because she was asymptomatic. And she’s under 2 so she didn’t have a mask on, she was projecting those viruses everywhere. Just something to keep in mind…

  • JamesJ November 9, 2021 (10:39 am)

    Ugh, so sorry to hear your story. We’ve always known children are just vectors for germs and disease. I’m shocked people, only know, are discussing how to keep them from spreading their diseases throughout society. Since my first day student teaching, I’ve been very vocal about the need to mask all kids, of all ages, at all times, while in indoor school settings.

• Pessoa November 9, 2021 (8:14 am)

  On the bright bright side, you and your child now have superior long lasting immunity – perhaps even for a lifetime according to the Harvard medical journal. Albeit a tough way to get it. Ideally, one would contract the virus, mitigate the severe symptoms with a pill, as being developed by Pfizer. 

  • OneTimeCharley November 9, 2021 (10:07 am)

    Superior to what? None?

• JamesJ November 9, 2021 (10:36 am)

  What is the percentage of us that are ACTUALLY fully vaccinated, as in 3+ shots? I’m on my 4th total shot, but am still wary going out knowing that many people only have 2 shots. I really hope they up the vaccinate requirement for indoor spaces to only be for people with 3+ shots or a booster within the last 4 months, now that we know the efficacy life-span of the shots.

  • heartless November 9, 2021 (11:19 am)

    As far as I know, 2 shots is considered fully vaccinated.  Not everyone needs a booster, and I can’t say I’ve really heard of people getting 4 shots…  That, uh, just seems like a lot of shots, at least for people without special medical needs or issues.

    To answer your question, but counting the normal way (i.e., one J&J or 2 mrna = fully vaccinated), King County is at about 72% vaccinated, Washington State is about 64%, and the US as a whole is at 58% vaccinated.  This is as of yesterday, Nov 8, and based on the interactive covid 19 vaccine dashboard on the NYT website:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

  • Matthieu November 9, 2021 (1:59 pm)

    First let me say that I got my 3rd booster shot as well, so I am on board with boosters but the issue is that as you state it is due after a number of Month (today it is only authorized for non immunocompromised 6 Months after the 2nd shot). So if somebody got vaccinated recently then it is not helpful (now  we can argue as to why but in some cases that was justified by a Covid infection in the spring before eligibility for example after which it is advised to wait 3 month for vaccination).Also while boosters for older people are helpful, not sure a 25 year old that got Moderna which is the most efficient long term (100mg vs 30mg in Pfizer) needs a booster after 6 Months, his antibodies level are most likely still as good as a 65 year old post booster. Also in some cases it can create myocarditis for young men, so imposing a sweeping 3rd shot to all may not be productive for fighting the pandemic

    • Pessoa November 9, 2021 (4:18 pm)

      Overall, I agree. Almost everyone can agree that vaccines are a must for the elderly and health comprised. We are on far more shaky ground as far recommendations for the young and healthy and I now have doubts about the reliability of our system to capture all incidents of serious side effects. I have a middle-aged friend who mysteriously developed mild myocardial perfusion months after the Pfizer jabs. Incidental finding? Coincidental? Perhaps, but her physician was baffled to find this in an otherwise healthy individual with no history of heart disease. No reason to panic, but those who receive vaccines should report any unusual symptoms, the more data the better. We are all part if a grand experiment in a sense, 

  • Pessoa November 9, 2021 (10:02 pm)

    You are free to take as many boosters you wish and any additional safety measures to protect yourself. Leave it at that. 

• OneTimeCharley November 10, 2021 (3:40 am)

  Without lying to the individual/organization administering the vaccination, you can’t have ‘as many boosters as you wish’. Why are you spreading so much misinformation here? For those with questions, please seek answers at the CDC website, or our King County Department of Health, or from your medical provider. Some folks in forums all over the internet are pushing agendas, not fact-based science, when it comes to Covid-19.

• Pessoa November 10, 2021 (2:51 pm)

   OTC:  Calm down and think for a moment: What is more likely, that I actually believe that one can get as many boosters as they want – even to the point of encouraging criminality -or that one can receive as many boosters that are available and that they qualify for?  Don’t accuse others of misinformation until you are darn sure it is, and was, intended to deceive. 

Sorry, comment time is over.