Home › Forums › Open Discussion › Only 114,000 jobs added in Sept. but rate drops to 7.8%
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October 5, 2012 at 2:04 pm #605102
SmittyParticipantEither the labor department number (114,000) or the household survey number (7.8%) will be revised at some point (it’s two separate surveys for those who don’t know).
Over 800,000 would have to join the workforce to move the number below 8%.
Any bets on which number gets revised and when, just so we have it on record?
I say the household survey gets revised to reflect an unemployment rate of over 8%, but not until December.
Classic (and very transparent thank god).
October 5, 2012 at 3:50 pm #773191
JoBParticipantSmitty…
lets be honest…
if the numbers had dropped you would be posting them on a neon lit billboard..
heck with waiting for any possible revision…
if what i see happening at Nickelsville is any indication…
people finally getting entry level jobs and moving out into housing..
those numbers are more correct than not.
There still aren’t enough jobs..
but there are some and that is a big improvement over this time last year.
my sister’s high school graduate granddaughter just got hired in Arizona.
and my grandson in Oregon.
things are definately looking up
October 5, 2012 at 4:25 pm #773192
SmittyParticipantAll I am saying is that an increase of 114,000 is historically weak, and for that to coincide with a drop in the unemployment rate is fishy. Chicago fishy – if you know what I mean.
Stay tuned!
(I certainly hope your anecdotal evidence is proof of FT job coming back across the country, I really do.)
October 5, 2012 at 4:32 pm #773193
dobroParticipantHere’s Ezra Klein at WaPo for the conspiracy theorists…
“Let’s get one thing out of the way: The data was not, as Jack Welch suggested in a now-infamous tweet, manipulated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set up to ensure the White House has no ability to influence it. As labor economist Betsey Stevenson wrote, “anyone who thinks that political folks can manipulate the unemployment data are completely ignorant of how the BLS works and how the data are compiled.” Plus, if the White House somehow was manipulating the data, don’t you think they would have made the payroll number look a bit better than 114,000? No one would have batted an eye at 160,000. […]
The number could, of course, be wrong. The household survey is, well, a survey, which means it’s open to error. But the internals back it up. The number saying they had jobs increased by about 800,000. That seems high, but it’s counting 582,000 who say they got part-time jobs.
October 5, 2012 at 4:44 pm #773194
jamminjMemberThe method is only a conspiracy if it goes against the repubs way. There is nothing wrong with the tabulation, it’s the same way it has been calculated for decades… but of course because it’s not the numbers the repubs want, it must be wrong.
For them, party first… not America.
If the unemployment #’s would be up, they would be jumping for joy. But any positive economic news, they lash out. Does that seem like they care about America first.
Just like blocking the jobs bill that would have passed with no qualms in the past by both parties… but whatever economic terrorism the GOP can unleash on America, they don’t seem to have any limits.
October 5, 2012 at 4:45 pm #773195
KenParticipantPlease explain this latest GOP conspiracy theory.
The numbers come from a BLS survey done every month.
Sure it is not what baggers and wingnuts wanted the numbers to say but the fact that you are bad at math does not make the numbers false in any way. Where were you when the Bush administration was losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month? You were spinning that as “cutting dead wood”.
Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.
— John Adams
October 5, 2012 at 6:50 pm #773196
SmittyParticipantThis has nothing to do with good vs bad.
The labor department said 114,000 jobs were created in September.
The household survey said 878,000 jobs were created(this report is the 7.8% number that MSNBC is drooling over).
60,000 fewer peopled are employed than when Obama took office – the working population has grown by hundreds of thousands – and the rate is the same?
One of them will be adjusted going forward. My guess is that it will be the household survey.
October 5, 2012 at 7:37 pm #773197
oddrealityParticipantWe were losing jobs fast the last quarter of 2008…518,000 in December and a total of 1.5 million in the last quarter under Bush..yet you complain about 60,000 since Obama took office??
We got a robo-call from the Union yesterday and they are calling more people back …not us…retired now…work is coming back, jobs are coming back and building is going on.Hooray for Obama’s policies that got us here. More years like the Bush years would have done us in at the rate of job loss we were sustaining.We cannot go back to that..forward is the only way!!
October 5, 2012 at 8:40 pm #773198
dobroParticipantNotice this line from the article I cited…
“The household survey is, well, a survey, which means it’s open to error. But the internals back it up.”
The internals back it up. Funny how the Repubs never question the numbers as long as they’re bad. The BLS works just fine until it crimps their narrative.
October 5, 2012 at 9:41 pm #773199
SmittyParticipantAll I am saying is that something is funny when the two surveys are so divergent. The household survey said 878,000 jobs were created LAST MONTH. The most since the height of the Reagan recovery. Weekly jobless claims have been hovering at 375,000 for weeks- well above what is considered good. gDP is still lackluster – and just revised down. The employment survey -a much bigger sample than the household survey- says 114,000 were created. The 878,000 is a statistical anomaly. It HAS to correct itself next month. The timing is just extremely funny, spawning the conspiracy theorists.
As they say, it’s better to be lucky than good…..
October 5, 2012 at 10:23 pm #773200
dobroParticipantThe trend for unemployment over the last two years has been down. Small increments to be sure,but that’s how its been going in spite of Repub obstruction on jobs bills. It’s best to be lucky AND good.
October 6, 2012 at 12:00 am #773201
waynsterParticipantHey the person who started it all yes a former GE CEO Jack Welch the offload king to china…
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/news/economy/welch-unemployment-rate/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
October 6, 2012 at 12:56 am #773202
SmittyParticipantAbsolutely the trend has been in the right direction. Nobody is arguing that. The fact that it jumped 878,000 in one month when a different report measuring the same information increased 114,000 is the issue. Does not compute.
Jack Welch didn’t start this, the numbers did.
It will correct itself next month (will rise to 8.1% again) and I will bump this thread with a big I told you so.
October 6, 2012 at 3:29 am #773203
WorldCitizenParticipantForgive me if I am missing something here, but isn’t it the issue that the previous 2 months numbers were adjusted up and that, combined with a decent showing in the current months report, is what made the number drop so much?
October 6, 2012 at 4:12 am #773204
SmittyParticipantNo.
They were adjusted up yes – but nowhere near the amount needed to hit the 878,000 new jobs reported in the household “survey”.
I have read that the household survey counts part-time jobs so “maybe” that explains part of it. Maybe.
Nevertheless, there has never been this much discrepancy in the two surveys.
October 6, 2012 at 4:39 am #773205
waynsterParticipantRead this it will help put out the conspiracy crap that’s out there and yes conspiracy started by Jack Welch read the all the articles….
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2019355673_jobsnumbers06.html
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/05/news/economy/welch-unemployment-rate/index.html?hpt=po_c2
http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t2#/video/bestoftv/2012/10/06/ac-jack-welch-interview.cnn
October 6, 2012 at 12:57 pm #773206
JoBParticipantSmitty..
i have to ask
how can you support an economic vision for America that says that jobs are not a real indication of recovery?
yup.. that’s what your man said.
October 6, 2012 at 2:20 pm #773207
SmittyParticipantHuh? Where did I say that? This entire election is about jobs.
How do these threads always get twisted.
One more time. This has nothing to do with the speed of the recovery, who I am voting for or what tax policies I believe in.
It has to do with the two surveys coming back with such drastically different answers to the same question.
Survey 1 (of employers) says 114,000 jobs were created in September. Survey 1 is the one that drives they “headline” jobs “created” number (when convenient).
Survey 2(of 50,000 households) says 878,000 jobs were created. Survey 2 is the one that drives the “headline” unemployment “rate” number (when convenient).
Statistically (come one – aren’t there any statistics wizards out there?) this is abnormal. Very abnormal. One of them will “adjust” next month – my guess is it will be the household survey (to back above 8%).
That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less.
The “timing” of this is what has the conspiracy theorists going crazy.
October 6, 2012 at 2:35 pm #773208
JoBParticipantSmitty..
sometimes surveys do that.
The conspiracy theorists can question the timing all they want to…
but the truth of the matter is that the President’s office has nothing to do with those surveys…
and wishing ill on the nation is not what i would call a promising election strategy…
i suspect that republicans are about to find that out..
along with finding out that trashing women’s rights doesn’t go over so well with the “little lady”
or.. for that matter.. labeling 47% of the population as leaches on society
or….
as much as the pundits have tried to make us believe that the only votes that count are those in the swing states…
citizens matter
October 6, 2012 at 2:53 pm #773209
redblackParticipantOctober 6, 2012 at 3:03 pm #773210
SmittyParticipantThe best thing about this dragging on-if it does drag on-is that 7.8% is now considered a good thing. It is historically awful and nowhere close to where we need to be. Of course if we continue to add 878,000 jobs a month we will be back to 4% in no time! We can only hope!
October 6, 2012 at 5:24 pm #773211
redblackParticipantyou know as i sat there this morning – black beret, work shirt over my che guevara tee shirt, camos tucked into my work boots (my black panther get-up is at the cleaners) – drinking black coffee, stroking my beard and muttering to myself, secretly praising the works of our great kenyan overlord, watching the marxist socialist nazi bolshevik communist network, i heard a democratic campaign strategist describe it thus:
“if unemployment rises, obama’s a failure. if it drops, he’s a fraud.”
brothers and sisters of the revolution, can i get an “amen?”
October 6, 2012 at 5:28 pm #773212
happywalkerParticipantCheck this non-biased, just the employment facts report from ADP. They are the largest U.S. payroll company, which means they are hired by many companies to process payroll. That’s all they do. They have no agenda or political affiliation. Just the facts,just sayin.
October 6, 2012 at 5:29 pm #773213
happywalkerParticipantOpps forgot just to make it easier, http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
October 6, 2012 at 6:16 pm #773214
SmittyParticipantI like the ADP report too. It usually comes out a few days before the Labor report and is a pretty good indicator.
Their September numbers are much closer to the 114,000 than the 878,000 reported in the household survey, confirming my point. The household survey will adjust next month to back over 8%…….
RB, I will have to start using that for MSNBC….clever. I would change the slogan though…if unemployment rises, obama’s a failure. if it drops but is still above 4%, he’s a failure….We have all become so used to this awful economy that dropping below 8% puts both sides in a tizzy! Sad……
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