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April 29, 2008 at 2:53 pm #617892
charlabobParticipantBDG, first of all your support of the homeless was eloquent and brave (except I know you just do it, so bravery isn’t an issue).
Second, when is the Plymouth Housing Groups luncheon? Maybe we can get together a posse to attend.
April 29, 2008 at 2:56 pm #617893
beachdrivegirlParticipantThursday September 25th @ the Grand Ballroom and thank you. Getting together woudl be a great idea… :)
April 29, 2008 at 3:10 pm #617894
JoBParticipantbeachdrivegirl…
this slam dunk myth makes a good talking point.. but it ignores the fact that Hillary is the first ever viable female candidate for nomination…
just what about that was ever supposed to be a slam dunk? I never thoght it was a slam dunk.. and i doubt very much Hilary did either. She is a smart woman. I am sure she thought she had herself as strongly situated as possible to run as a woman.. but slam dun? nope. that’s a myth… or a campaign talking point:)
As for the media… they have only begun to pay attention to Senator Obama and ask questions…
And why he hasn’t closed the deal is a question his own supporters might do well to ask.
He supposedly has the “will of the people” behind him… he has outspent her in the last few primaries at least 3 to 1. He and the press have been calling HIllary’s campaign a losing effort for months. She still gets more negative mentions on Network TV than he does…
and yet.. he can’t quite close the deal.
perhaps it would be good to look at why.
Because the answers to those questions are the least of what he will be facing this fall.
He has won a lot of states.. but winning the democratic primary in those states is not the same as winning the national election in those states.
Impose a red state / blue state map over a map of Clinon / Obama wins and you will find that Hillary carried the states that carry a democratic victory in the national election.
Is his campaign counting on the democratic states where he didn’t win.. and where they have been vilifying his opponent and her supporters to carry America? If so, they might have been wise to court them.. not dismiss them as unimportant.
Is his campaign counting on crossover Republican vote in those states he won in the primary? Because he may have already tapped out those who would crossover in the primaries.. in his attempt to win the nomination.
What can he possible say or do that will overpower those who think with their passions when those passions are inflamed night after night with calls to patriotism and subliminal racist messages?
Especially since he gave the press the soundbites they were looking for to replay continually in those states…
Just like in the primaries.. it’s the delegates that count (to the electoral college) … not the popular vote.
He can win the popular vote in America in November and lose the election.
This campaign aobut the campiagn is all well and good.. as long as the campaign is sweeping the floor with it’s opponent… it creates great momentum..
but when the opponent hangs on against all odds.. it’s time to start asking how that could possibly happen in such a campaign… is it all it’s cracked up to be?
it’s good the press are asking questions that the Obama campaign should have been asking itself all along… and fine tuning it’s message for a broader appeal.
If he is doing that, it’s not working so far.
April 29, 2008 at 3:27 pm #617895
walfredoMemberJoB- It’s pretty tough to argue that Hillary Clinton started with a substantial lead, and as the favorite in 45+ states. Give Obama Illinois and Hawaii, Edwards maybe NC? That’s about it…
To Hillary supporters is- why in every state, regardless of who is leading when the heavy campaigning starts do they break towards Obama? In states where he leads, he extends the lead and runs up the score, when he trails he cuts into the lead, and keeps the delegates close.
Can you name 1 state where Hillary has done the same. Whether it be Wisconsin- 16 points, Virginia 28 points, Nebraska 36 points, Colorado 34 points, Georgia 32 points, Minnesota 32 points, Washington state 40 points… In none of these contests- most in battleground states did she have any success at making the race close. In fact, like in pretty much every state Obama’s campaign was more effective, and he expanded his lead in these states.
So, in states that favor her, he is closing the margins and worst case losing by 9 or 10 points. In states that favor him, he is extending the margins and often winning by 30+ points. Why is that? What makes her campaign so ineffective at making races like Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Washington State close? There is no possible way a democrat can win the election without winning what 3 out of 5 of those states? Doesn’t by her own campaigns logic, that make her completely unelectable in the general?
April 29, 2008 at 3:42 pm #617896
beachdrivegirlParticipantThank you Walfredo, it looks like I wont have to respond to JoB afterall.
On a different note, Obama now leads in Senate endorsements!!! These are their peers and they know these canidates better than any of us ever could. Furthermore, of the Senate endorsments that Obama does have our in my opinion more substantial.
Only 2 of Clinton’s 13 endorses chair committees. While on Obamas end 8 of his 14 endorsers head a panel.
April 29, 2008 at 4:17 pm #617897
JoBParticipantGood morning Walfredo..
it’s good to see that you are good salesman… no matter what the question.. move right back to the pitch.
do you do sales for a living? i just ask, because i spent my time in that gig as well and can really appreciate a good sales pitch.
your product.. the campaign… your style … statistical…
Do you get the Progressive? That’s the magazine that promotes progressive viewpoints.. you know.. the platform that Senator Obama ran on for the Illinois Senate and the hidden platform he is using to pull in all that young college educated vote…
The last issue (May 2008)has back to back articles for and against Obama. I would link youto them, but they don’t seem to be available on the web yet. i checked last night.
But i will give the titles to make it easier for others more proficient to search…
the pro Obama article…
Another Country Edwidge Danticat
Why I support Obama
by Edwidge Danticat.. a Haitiian-American writer (Brother, I’m dying)and National Book Critics Circle award winner who lives in Florida…
btw.. you should look her up. she is really interesting…
talks about hope.. straight out of the campaign literature… and features the line “he knows what it is like to be an outsider”.
this piece was done mostly in interview style… but this is one of the stronger pro-Obama paragraphs..
“… I am supporting him because this country desperately needs a change of leadership and that change needs to be ground-breaking. We need to be stirred out of our current apathy in a way that out neighbors’ foreclosures and a nearly $4 gallon of gas still hasn’t managed to.”
It was a well written and heartfelt piece.
The article against Obama
Class Notes Adolph Reed Jr
Obama: Vacuous Opportunist
by Adolph Reed Jr, a professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and a well respected activist from Chicago’s South Side.
He is definately not what one could call a Hillary supporter ….he is on record criticizing her strongly)… in fact.. he is not what one could call a supporter of the current democratic party and it’s politics… again.. another interesting person to read.. this article written in Nov 2007 is a good background piece for this perspective. http://www.progressive.org/mag_reed1107
his article starts with this paragraph:
“I have never been an Obama supporter. I’ve known him since the very beginning of his political career, which was his campaign for the seat in my state senate district in Chicago. He stuck me then as a vacuous opportunist, a good performer with an ear for how to make white liberals like him. I argued at the time that his fundamental political center of gravity, beneath an empty rhetoric of hope and change and new direction is neoliberal.
His article goes on to document why he holds that opinion. and it too is well written…
I think these two articles really underscore the true dichotomy of Obama’s bid for the nomination …
Part of America is reacting to the visionary speeches..
and another part sits back and shakes it’s head that everyone is buying the shell game…
It’s not about the campaign.. it’s not even about Hillary although that makes a really good smoke screen. it’s about Obama himself.
some people buy his message as it stands. some people want to buy the message but want to see some back up proof that he will do what he says he will do. and some people just plain don’t buy it at all.
he has shown us that he can pull at least half of the democratic party with his visionary speeches.
But at best that’s a little more than half of half… or a between quarter and a third of our nation..
If he has difficulty pulling the disbelieving half of the democratic party to the polls… what will pull the rest of the nation there?
It’s a good question… and one not easily answered by statistics.
please forgive me if this one rambles.. i am having increasing difficulty typing.. so will not edit this one..
April 29, 2008 at 4:25 pm #617898
JoBParticipantLOL beachdrivegirl…
now you are tickled that the party elite are endorsing Obama…
wasn’t part of his charm that he wasn’t endorsed by any of those “same old.. same old”.. party standards?
if he is now the candidate for the party powerful…
how can he also be the candidate who will create sweeping change?
the party powerful don’t like to be sept out, you know;-0
just goes to show.. he is a politician.
pretty slick one too:)
ok.. head splitting.. can’t do this any mroe for now even for fun…
April 29, 2008 at 6:37 pm #617899
JoBParticipantI stumbled across this research paper which has relevance since it talks about negativity and the use of words in the primary campaigns…
an amusing finding.. John McCain rarely uses the word she.. apparently women are not on his radar.. that is…. as subjects for political discourse:)
this is a research paper so it might be heavy reading for some of you.. but at the bottom are tables that are easy to understand and kind of amusing to follow when you look at exactly what words the candidates are using…
this is an equal opportunity research paper by the way.. so even republicans should find it interesting…
but i confess. i post it fro Walfredo and his love of statistics…
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~bsacerdo/Campaigning%20In%20Poetry..Sacerdote%20Zidar%201.27.08.pdf
again.. sorry i can’t edit today.. so what i lvingly refer to as my brain farts will just have to stay…. I am typing s slowly as i can to try to catch them:)
April 30, 2008 at 2:54 pm #617900
beachdrivegirlParticipantObama got endorsed by another Super today!!!
April 30, 2008 at 4:30 pm #617901
charlabobParticipantThe Clintons have now started using the black and white grainy ad strategy for two ads in Indiana that mislead the people about the effects of the gas tax holiday. BWGAS = showing your opponent in grainy, out of focus, black and white and showing yourself in cheery airbrushed color. I only noticed because a couple months ago, the Columbia Journalism Review noticed that NO ONE had used the grainy black and white ads yet — and was pointing to that as an example of how the campaign wasn’t as ugly as we thought. :-)
May 1, 2008 at 2:12 am #617902
JanSParticipanthere’s an article that’s not so much an endorsement of Obama than a little “indictment” of the energy policy regarding gasoline that McCain and Clinton agree on…
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/opinion/30friedman.html?th&emc=th
May 1, 2008 at 3:58 pm #617903
JoBParticipantafter all of the fuss about the lack of loyalty of Clinton supporters to the democratic party in the fall.. i thought you might be interested to know what Senator Obama said about his own supporters…
A direct Obama quote on January 22, 2008 with David Brody
“I have no doubt that once the nomination contest is over, I will get the people who voted for her. Now the question is can she get the people who voted for me? And I think that describes sort of one of the choices that people have, just a practical choice, as they move forward.”
May 1, 2008 at 4:06 pm #617904
beachdrivegirlParticipantBarack Obama has not only picked up four SD today!! But probably one of his biggest wins of the day is that former Clinton supporter Joe Andrew decided to not only switch his support to back Senator Obama, but also urged other supers to do so, too!
May 1, 2008 at 4:09 pm #617905
walfredoMemberJoB- that was pretty much everyones belief back in January… That the democrats would rally behind the winner, but that the crossover voters, young and first time voters the folks Obama was attracting- that was a big question- would they support a different candidate in the general, or just fade away from the process?
That quote was way before the kitchen sink came out. That was before Clinton endorsed McCain. That was back when folks said, gosh we have such great candidates. All 3 of them would make amazing presidents. I just want to get rid of Bush.
So, in context, that is not a controversial statement, and since this contest has become so divisive, I would bet you would have a hard time finding a quote like that after Ohio and Texas. Obama is not a dumb guy, and understands it will be a challenge to get the Hillary supporters onboard. Largely because of all of the over the top rhetoric lobbed from her and her campaign at him… But I like his chances.
May 1, 2008 at 4:24 pm #617906
JoBParticipantWalfredo..
love that spin.
it’s controversial when a single poll says that Clinton supporters may not support Obama in the fall if he is the nominee…
but not controversial at all for the candidate himself to say that when it comes to electability in the fall.. he is pretty sure Clinton supporters will vote for him.. but the democrats shouldn’t count on his supporters for her?
LOL…
beachdrivegirl…
no superdelegate is committed until they actually vote.. what changed today can change again tomorrow… as you just pointed out.
too many people are counting their eggs before the chickens roost…
let’s see how this plays out before we call the game…
May 1, 2008 at 4:27 pm #617907
JoBParticipantSpeaking of the election this fall…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/why_hillary_not_obama_is_the_d.html
May 1, 2008 at 4:39 pm #617908
walfredoMemberJoB- that was written by Mark Penn.
I can abbreviate the article:
“Why Hillary is the Democrat to beat McCain”
Because she gave me tens of millions of dollars for my input, and let me run the show.
This is news? The chief strategist of her campaign thinks she is a better candidate then her opponent?
Penn go lobby Colombia on behalf of the Clinton’s, then lie about it. It’s more interesting then this drivel…
May 1, 2008 at 4:40 pm #617909
beachdrivegirlParticipantLoL… that article was written a few months ago by Mark Penn as her campaigns cheif strategist…. And I believe we are all pretty familiar with Mr. Penn so I am not even going to touch on that subject.
The Superdelegates are coming together becuase they see the rift in the party that Clinton has created.
May 1, 2008 at 4:47 pm #617910
JoBParticipantBeachdrivegirl..
it may come as a surprise to you that cogent arguments can come from both the Obama and Clinton camps…
I didn’t pick it as a clear argument.. Real Clear Politics did..
an interesting site by the way.. well worth trolling through for arguments on all sides of the political spectrum.
but i can see why attacking the writer and not the argument has an attraction for you.
how about this.. statistics for Walfredo and not by Clinton strategists…
http://usnews.feedroom.com/?fr_story=b94916d424c2f981583594b2970633fb33a3bac2&rf=sitemap
i particularly liked where Clinton trounced McCain with Independents…
May 1, 2008 at 4:53 pm #617911
JoBParticipantbeachdrivegirl…
i think superdelegates are “coming together” because they fear that Obama supporters will not come out in the fall for a Clinton candidacy…
that could change in a heartbeat if Clinton does well in the next primaries…
In North Carolina.. we are about to see how the fallout from denouncing Reverend Wright does or does not affect the black vote… which comprises an amazing percentage of North Carolina’s democrats.
If there is a shift there… the superdelegates will be changing their allegiance again.. for the good of the party:)
and everyone wants to see how he will do in Indiana.. can he or can’t he carry the blue collar vote?
because quite frankly, the black vote will go with the democrats.. no matter who is running… as will educated liberals.
but the blue collar vote is a lot more elusive.
May 1, 2008 at 4:57 pm #617912
beachdrivegirlParticipantAre you familiar with Real Clear Politics or did you gust google about how Clinton can beat McCain? Real Clear Politics is an Independent site that posts the best of commentaries and news articles throughtout the day. IT didnt pick it as an argument it just put a link to it. The point is it very well could have just come from the Clinton website. It is a joke and gave me aa real laugh today.
May 1, 2008 at 4:59 pm #617913
beachdrivegirlParticipantAnd if we are goign to go off of RealClearPolitics (which I do check daily) wait until the working class (blue collar voter)get wind fo this Hillary Clinton is not their friend. Heck its posted on RCP so it must be true.. they even have quotes and facts! So that blue collar vote will be slipping away from Clinton sooner than we all thought….
May 1, 2008 at 5:00 pm #617914
beachdrivegirlParticipantAnd as I mentioned before I am an Independent and I will not vote for Clinton so say all you want about the Independents I think it is all just a bunch of stories made up in the press b/c they need people to keep tuning in.
May 1, 2008 at 5:18 pm #617915
charlabobParticipantSuperdelegates who were undecided are now taking stands. Even more interesting to me, supers are switching sides. Here is a superdelegate who switched — from Clinton to Obama. He was a Clinton supporter from the day she announced. And he was a former chair of the DNC, under Bill Clinton.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080501/ap_on_el_pr/superdelegates
I googled “supers who switched from clinton to Obama” because I was looking, specifically, for this guy. There were a few more listed. I also googled “supers who switched from obama to clinton” and nothing showed up. I realize there have been accusations of bias on the part of search engines, but I think we know that’s not happening.
I’m a little worried about the number and calibre of people who will now fall under the Clinton Grudge Machine because of their perceived disloyalty. For example, I’m pretty sure Bill Richardson, one of the brightest and most talented lights of the party, won’t be used to his fullest in a Clinton administration. :-) And Robert Reich and …
Finally, I’m guilty of spreading a false rumor: Elizabeth Edwards endorsed Clinton’s health care plan, not Clinton herself. She made it very clear in a couple of interviews earlier this week that she and John have not endorsed any candidate. Sorry to all the people, including myself and the bob, who were depressed by my previous announcement. :-)
May 1, 2008 at 5:45 pm #617916
JoBParticipantbeachdrivegirl…
the poll wasn’t about stories made up by the press.
it was just a poll.
and yes, i know about Real Politics… did you know that they choose the links they present?
Yup.. choose.. on the basis of the clarity of the argument…
what i miss most about this primary is both sides making clear arguments that allow us to choose a position.. not just a personality..
i would like to see more clear arguments from the Obama camp.. yes, even written by his campaign’s chief strategist.. in fact especially written by his campaign’s chief strategist…
that’s interesting and challenges you to think about why you think the way you do. sometimes the other’s side’s arguments only make my opinion stronger. sometimes they cause me to change my opinion. but they always force me to think.
that’s a good thing.
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