Double-Dip Recession Coming?

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  • #701252

    Carson
    Participant

    Me thinks the only decision Smitty makes on a daily basis is Creamy or Chunky…..

    #701253

    JoB
    Participant

    smitty..

    been there .. done that.. without the guns..

    in the late 60s.

    thankfully … The revolution i was anticipating fizzled.

    it left behind a lifetime habit of a well stocked pantry… and an inclination for kitchen gardens:)

    #701254

    HMC Rich
    Participant

    The tavern is a great idea. I will drink to that

    again my question was not answered and all I hear is a blame Republican and big biz thread.

    So I must ask. The government gets it’s money from where? Is it not in the best interest of the government to make businesses feel like they can grow and expand instead of stifling productivity? You can preach public works projects all you want but unless business feels empoered to grow and expand the tax receipts will continue to decline.

    I still believe public and private can work together. I just don’t want the government dictating and stifling every opportunity. Nor do I want out of control private greed. There is a successful balance.

    1-20-13. Hurry up. We can’t afford this.

    #701255

    JoB
    Participant

    HMCRich..

    was the constitution rewritten while i was gardening? last time i looked business wasn’t mentioned.. but people were.

    Here’s the deal. Since when is it stifling productivity to prevent businesses from defrauding their stockholders and/or their customers?

    Worker productivity is at an all time high in America.. but businesses are not rewarding that productivity with investment… in fact.. the reward for all that productivity has been massive layoffs and foreign investment… while unemployment in the United States is at an all time high…. as is the percentage of those employed in the service sector at less than living wage jobs.

    Just exactly how profitable do American businesses need to be?

    They just finished one of their most profitable quarters ever…. and yet… what we are hearing is how the government is constraining their profitability so they can’t invest or expand and employ American workers.

    can you explain to me exactly how that makes even the smallest amount of sense?

    If you take the political rhetoric away… it doesn’t.

    But there you go.. pesky leftist democrat insisting on facts and logic…

    That alone is apparently implied criticism of republicans.

    #701256

    Carson
    Participant

    Rich,

    Do you know what the difference is between Conservatives and Liberals?

    Conservatives want the Liberals out of their Boardrooms.

    Liberals want the Conservatives out of their Bedrooms.

    Sounds a lot more simple than that, but until you figure out a way to remove the moral minority from your party you will never attract enough moderates to your view to give you anything beyond an occasional victory. I used to be among you, but I still regret every vote I cast…

    #701257

    Smitty
    Participant

    DP,

    I’m more of a “scribe” than a decision maker! I’m in the rooms, not necessarily driving the decisions…….maybe once in awhile!

    My reference to sitting on money is really big business related, not banks. I am not in banking and can only speculate that they were burned for their low-doc loans in the past so they are over-correcting as a result. Low doc loans pushed by the government to increase home ownership.

    And, despite what Rush said – most of us on the Right want him to succeed. I would like nothing more than to be proven wrong. Big business is doing what they feel is the right thing for the shareholders – nothing more, nothing less.

    Carson,

    More like “small curd, or large curd”…….I’m trying to lose weight.

    #701258

    JoB
    Participant

    smitty…

    if big business really wants Obama to succeed…

    can you explain why they are investing so much cash into opposing political campaigns?

    and it’s not just that they are investing in republicans..

    they are investing in political action groups that are both racist and homophobic…

    they are investing in the most radical of the far right organizations.

    admitted..

    that’s the same crowd that views any regulation as a massive infringement on free enterprise…

    those folks who turn a blind eye to outright fraud unless it costs them personally..

    but still …

    if they want Obama to succeed

    why are they sitting on their investments until another administration replaces this one?

    they are choosing not to move ahead with investment which is further crippling the economy which is further endangering their business.

    and this is in their stockholders best interests?

    again.. logic fails.

    #701259

    Carson
    Participant

    JoB,

    Just sit back and enjoy the next 2 years. Watch as the Republicans try and appease the Tea Baggers with someone conservative enough to make them happy knowing if they go to far right they can never win the general election. Its gonna be fun to watch!!!

    #701260

    DP
    Member

    Hopefully the logic of capitalist competition will kick in again and some banks will start lending to promising small businesses. Once the process gets started, other banks—not wanting to get left in the dust—should hop on the bandwagon.

    If the big outfits keep sitting on their thumbs, I don’t see how that can possibly be a boon to their shareholders, since profit will be flat. Still, I suppose that’s better than losing money . . .

    Anyway, I thought there was an understanding that went along with getting bailout money. I thought the recipients had agreed they would do their best to get the economy rolling again—only without taking the same kinds of foolish speculative risks as before.

    Was I wrong about that?

    Of course I don’t want government pushing lenders to hand money out to people who can’t afford to pay it back, and I agree with Smitty that that was happening. (It was not the whole problem, but it was certainly a part of it.) By the same token, I don’t want government rewarding lenders for hoarding cash.

    My understanding is that the government does a lot to help banks, specifically in the area of monetary policy. Perhaps lenders should be required to demonstrate that they are doing something positive with the money before they can be eligible for artifically low Fed loan rates, subsidized insurance, etc.

    This is one of those many things that should transcend party politics, if only because we can’t afford to have economy that swings wildly back and forth every four to eight years . . .

    #701261

    JoB
    Participant

    DP..

    the big guys are building profits by laying off employees….

    at some point they too will reach a critical mass where layoffs won’t generate paper money and they will have to think of something else to do…

    like doing business…

    but it will be a while yet.

    #701262

    DP
    Member

    JoB: That makes sense.

    Hopefully any economic saboteurs out there will run out of steam before the economy as a whole does.

    #701263

    Jiggers
    Member

    In the Times today they’ve reported a drop in unemployment to 8.9% which is more like at 9.5% for those who have fallen off the system and have not been rehired. That’s still around 600,000 people in this State alone that aren’t working.

    article,

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012643563_jobs18.html

    #701264

    Carson
    Participant

    Jiggers, you might want to re-read that article and fix that 600,000 number…..600,000 would be closer to 9.5% of the entire population, babies and elderly included!

    #701265

    Jiggers
    Member

    Yeah.. But I think it is way more than the 300,000 plus that are physically collecting still.

    #701266

    Carson
    Participant

    Maybe. Then again, how many of the actual 300,000 are doing side work for cash or just taking the summer off? More than just a few…..

    #701267

    Smitty
    Participant

    I can tell you this – we have reduced workforce and do not plan on hiring back even if things recover.

    It’s amazing what a recession can do to help find synergies, streamline processes and maximize the labor you have.

    Manufactuaring & construction are obviously different stories and will need labor when demand comes back, but corporate America is going to stay thin, regardless. (imo)

    #701268

    Carson
    Participant

    So Smitty, what you are saying is that upper management where you work should have been fired years ago for not maximizing profits and realizing they were just carrying a lot of dead wood. If they haven’t been canned yet, please, share with us where you work, it sounds like a great stock to short!

    #701269

    JoB
    Participant

    smitty…

    so do you think “labor maximization” might have been the goal all along?

    most people i know are working harder and longer to do the jobs of 2 or 3 people, being paid less and living with the stress of the unemployment ax hanging over their head every day.

    when someone breaks under that kind of pressure to not only perform but continually increase their personal productivity … they are jettisoned so fast they don’t even see their 20 or 30 years of service circling the drain before they are flushed.

    the labor at your business is currently “maximized”… that is you are getting everything you can from them now .. and your company still doesn’t plan to hire when business increases.

    you think this is a good thing?

    when real wages for work go down while performance expectations and productivity go up that is called labor exploitation….

    and it can be pushed too far…

    you can’t get blood from a stone.

    i don’t know what you are doing in that boardroom.. but if you are paid you might ask yourself …

    when they have finished draining all the fat from hourly employees and salaried employees and middle management and upper middle management…

    where do you think they are going to find that next round of cuts to bolster their profitability?

    when you cannibalize your workforce..

    you cannibalize your greatest asset..

    those employees who drive innovation.

    cutting off your nose to spite your face is really too mild an analogy for that..

    it’s more like severing your feet to save the cost of shoes and then realizing you can no longer walk.

    #701270

    Carson
    Participant

    JoB,

    Smitty is full of it. It would be one thing if he actually took ownership and said, I work for “abc123′ and we are doping this, because. But he isn’t and he can’t. Its all made up. Its how the right attacks the left (and when the right is in power, how the left attacks them). You throw out clever and really scary bits and pieces and when called out, you say nothing. Like that other dim-wit that claimed he knew of businesses that would leave when and if 1098 passes.I called him out and asked him to name 1 company. Of course he couldn’t. Smitty is just regurgitating the scare tactics of the right.

    #701271

    Smitty
    Participant

    I am not trying to scare anyone – just telling you what ONE company is doing. And Carson, yes -you could make the case that we should have trimmed the fat long ago – but when that top-line keeps growing people tend to lose sight of the bottom line.

    When “flat is the new up” people tend to laser-beam on expenses. All kinds of examples that don’t (directly) involve labor too; video calls vs conference calls, fewer biz trips, hiring freeze (let attrition do most of the work), wage freeze, cheap coffee, you name it.

    #701272

    Carson
    Participant

    Smitty, I am still calling BS on you. But you do know all the lines!!! You are well rehearsed.

    #701273

    JoB
    Participant

    smitty…

    there is only so much work you can squeeze out of one employee…

    expecting that amount to get larger each year guarantees that the employee will eventually fail.

    even worse.. the best of your employees will eventually find another place to work.

    #701274

    DP
    Member

    Smitty: What are the chances of us persuading you to spread a little sedition within the Hallways of Power?

    We could print up tracts, just like the evangelical Christians do, with slogans like:

    Do you know where your soul is going after the Recession?

          and

    Believe on the Recovery and Thou Shalt Be Saved!

    You could leave stacks of them in the executive washroom or surreptitiously tuck them into lapel pockets when you bump into people in the cafeteria.

    Whaddaya think, guy? I’m trying to brainstorm solutions here . . .

     

     —Yeah, Baby!!

    #701275

    Smitty
    Participant

    I am not “well rehearsed” I am just repeating what I hear. Again, in ONE boardroom of ONE company. We ALL have a vested interest in this thing turning around NOW, trust me – I would like nothing more. However, my company is not going to be the first the flinch and/or start hiring, and/or increase expenses with so many unknowns(healthcare and taxes being at the forefront).

    The workers we have are scared sh#tless that they will be roasting rabbits under I-5 if things continue. It’s amazing how much productivity you can get out of people when their backs are against the wall (all levels, not just the front lines).

    #701276

    Carson
    Participant

    Smitty, you are so full of it!!! But I will say this, you make me laugh!!!

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