Update: Weather alert canceled, no snow likely after all

(Photo by Laura James, added 6:21 pm; click for larger image)
The last few warnings about possible metro-area snow didn’t lead to anything much for West Seattle – one or two quick bursts of flakes – but nonetheless, we need to tell you that our area is covered by a “Special Weather Statement“ that the National Weather Service issued this afternoon, regarding a “strong cold front” late tonight into tomorrow … maybe even some Tuesday morning icing before things warm up.

9:23 PM UPDATE: The “Special Weather Statement” is still in effect, but weather analyst Cliff Mass‘s latest assessment has led him to publish an update titled “Snow Threat Evaporates.”

10:06 PM UPDATE: The alert is now canceled. The NWS’s latest “forecast discussion” explains it, as does WS-residing meteorologist Patrick in comments – the cold temps and the moisture just aren’t synching up in the outlook any more.

Patrick March 4, 2012 (7:16 pm)

Ok, so taking the newest model data into acct. it appears the coming pattern is too dynamic for me to pinpoint who get’s what and how much ( outside of the PSCZ ) but what is 90% certain is that tomorrow’s high temp. will occur just before sunrise and then drop off dramatically afterwards being only in the low to mid 30’s by the evening commute. A PSCZ will likely setup behind the front and this is the one area I AM focused on that could produce anywhere between 2-6 inches of snow, anyone and just about everyone from Tacoma north could see snow falling and most within the PSCZ will have accumulation. Placement of the PSCZ is hard to pinpoint right now but looks to setup between South Seattle north to about Lynwood and stay there for several hours.

Diane March 4, 2012 (7:59 pm)

thanks Laura for taking and sharing this photo; I saw this incredible spaceship shaped cloud over the city skyline just after sunset, but have no way to photograph it myself; was hoping someone would catch it

OP March 4, 2012 (8:03 pm)

I can tolerate this forecast as I’ll be watching languishing in the grass watching baseball under the warm AZ sun for 5 days starting Wed. :-p

miws March 4, 2012 (8:19 pm)

I wonder if that would be considered a lenticular cloud? It looks very similar to the ones we often see over Mt. Rainier.

Mike

WS Neighbor March 4, 2012 (8:38 pm)

Well, you never know! I hear there was a big snowfall with several inches on the ground back on March 7th, 1951, here in our very own Seattle, at least on Queen Anne Hill and downtown…

smokeycretin9 March 4, 2012 (8:39 pm)

Patrick, how does it look for the mountains? I need to know if I should play hooky on monday or tuesday?

Thanks,

Creekside March 4, 2012 (8:47 pm)

Very cool photo. Thank you Laura. I say bring on the weather, it is only weather after all. Trying hard to remember that whether the weather is hot, or whether the weather is cold. Whether the weather we’re in it together, whether we like it or not!

Andrea March 4, 2012 (8:56 pm)

Thanks for the updates and much appreciated info Patrick!!

Patrick March 4, 2012 (9:12 pm)

@ Smokeycretin9….

Mts. look to get an additional 8-18 inches with this storm coming in tonight, so conditions look good to play hooky

Patrick March 4, 2012 (9:14 pm)

@ Mike, the cloud pictured is classified as Alto-stratus, notice how the cloud has ” layers ” to it?

That is because of wind shear in the lower levels associated with two different air masses moving in opposite directions

WSB March 4, 2012 (9:21 pm)

And now the famous Cliff Mass writes “Snow threat evaporates” … http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/03/snow-threat-evaporates.html
.
fwiw.
.
TR

JanS March 4, 2012 (9:18 pm)

Bring it on…I’m staying home until Tuesday evening :)

Rob March 4, 2012 (9:21 pm)

Latest models on tonights run trends warmer and my bet is the only places that will see snow are in the convergence zone, We may get a few flakes but nothing major.

Rob March 4, 2012 (9:24 pm)

Check that out, We posted the same time Wsb!

Patrick March 4, 2012 (9:52 pm)

Rob, warmer is not the issue, it’s the timing of system itself and precip moving in faster than the cold air, right now portions of BC have 925mb temps of +3 and are only pegged to drop to -2 by 7 am, that would support snow but moisture is ALL but gone by that time period.