West Seattle Weather Watch: Tuesday pm updates; Wednesday school closures

(9:45 PM TOPLINES: More school cancellations for Wednesday (here’s the list) … Late-night forecast updates now coming in)

While some other parts of the city have snow, as of right now, we still don’t. But the snow elsewhere – and anticipation here – has still led to some changes, so here’s where we are publishing updates:

(Lincoln Park this afternoon, courtesy David Walega)
(updated 10:02 pm) LATEST FORECAST: Cliff Mass‘s late-night update suggests 2-4 inches most likely here. Still awaiting Nat’l Weather Service’s late-night take … (added) Here it is: They see maybe 4-8 inches over the city and are keeping warnings in place.

(updated 9:43 pm) CHANGES/CLOSURES FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Seattle Public Schools will be CLOSED WEDNESDAY … Explorer West Middle School will be CLOSED WED. … Westside School will be CLOSED WED. … Holy Family School will be CLOSED WED. … Hope Lutheran School will be CLOSED WED. … South Seattle Community College closed at 4:30 pm today, evening events canceled … The city meeting at the ex-SW Community Center re: emergency preparedness is canceled … Sustainable West Seattle has postponed its forum/volunteer fair … Southwest Pool lessons canceled, according to a call received by a WSB’er … “Finding Kind” screening at Explorer West rescheduled for March 14th, 7 pm … PCC Cooks classes are canceled tonight and tomorrow … Seattle Municipal Court will be closed tomorrow … West Seattle Community Orchestras have canceled their rehearsals for tonight … Relay for Life-West Seattle has postponed its scheduled Wednesday night kickoff party … ArtsWest is canceling its WEDNESDAY night performance of “All Through the Night” (but TONIGHT is still on) … Anything else to add? Let us know!

(updated 8:32 pm) TRANSIT: Metro is staying on snow routing TFN. Its latest update includes this:

Due to the weather forecast for treacherous and impassable roadways, Metro is scaling back some service Wednesday to be able to operate the rest of its system safely and as reliably as possible. The routes scheduled to be canceled for Wednesday are: 2EX, 38, 42, 45, 46, 51, 53, 79, 114, 161, 162, 175, 192, 193, 197, 205, 210, 215, 216, 219, 224, 237, 251, 268, 277, 316, 355, and the Center Park Shuttle. Information about these Wednesday route cancellations will be added to Metro’s snow page after midnight tonight.

Metro also made a special point of saying it does not serve the 2nd/Columbia bus stop downtown while on snow routing. Use 3rd/Spring instead.

WEDNESDAY TRASH SERVICE? So far, Seattle Public Utilities says, they’re planning on it. They were planning on a normal pickup day today, and had also advised everyone who was missed yesterday to leave theirs out till end of day today.

More to come (till we launch a new late-night roundup).

k January 17, 2012 (3:53 pm)

does anyone know if the city will put something on their site if they shut down city agencies? our office is waiting for them to make the call first.

Ronnie Applewhite January 17, 2012 (4:12 pm)

Also, tonight’s scheduled rehearsals for the West Seattle Community Orchestra have been cancelled.

No SNow January 17, 2012 (4:16 pm)

Public Enemy said it best:

Don’t Believe The Hype

karen January 17, 2012 (4:36 pm)

Robo called – no Seattle Public Schools tomorrow.

que January 17, 2012 (4:36 pm)

SPS just called and emailed with the info that schools are closed on Wednesday.

Chris January 17, 2012 (4:39 pm)

Predicted snow amounts have been scaled way back (big surprise). I’m predicting all the hype has been a total waste of time.

questionable January 17, 2012 (4:42 pm)

The overreporting of winter precipitation has cost me money today; half my clients went home early in fear of some terrible storm despite the obvious fact that we’re facing a cold but clear evening. Local news organizations should be fined for inciting panic.

mightymo January 17, 2012 (4:47 pm)

I live on one of the flatter streets in Seattle and they still didn’t pick up my trash and yard waste today. (My usual pickup day is Monday.) The road was clear. I’m not sure what the problem was!

First Arbor Heights Mom January 17, 2012 (4:48 pm)

It would be very funny if everyone in west seattle went to school tomorrow. We could have a school-in. I’m always saying it’s sunnier in west seattle, now we could be smarter too. Seems like everyone except the city is bracing for the storm and following chaos of a few years ago. I have to say I think the City is doing a terrific job with proactive salting/sanding, etc.

sarelly January 17, 2012 (5:04 pm)

After all the hoopla, if it doesn’t snow, I will be disappointed. It can be beautiful and amazing (if it doesn’t kill you.)

A winter snowstorm in the Northeast circa 1978 lasted for 10 days of continuous accumulation, so that at the end, there was about six feet on the ground.

Nick 15yo January 17, 2012 (5:17 pm)

No school tomorrow? I’m heart broken.

35this35mph January 17, 2012 (5:22 pm)

@ First Arbor Heights Mom- Occupy SPS!

D1 January 17, 2012 (5:23 pm)

I think this storm is gonna be alot worse then what they are saying!

Admiral Lady January 17, 2012 (5:28 pm)

We need Patrick with an update!!

GenHillOne January 17, 2012 (5:32 pm)

Same here mightymo and I had high hopes for today. Tomorrow, not so much. At least it’s cold enough to contain the stink ;)
–
FWIW, it was indeed snowing hard in NW Seattle earlier today, so I guess I can see the reasoning behind the SPS closure, but if I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes…

No SNow January 17, 2012 (5:34 pm)

Too much snowovereacting. The so-called “experts” (both amatuer and professional) have cost people money by overhyping an alleged “major snow event”.

Ajax January 17, 2012 (5:42 pm)

I can’t predict the weather but I think there’s a 90% probability that the same people complaining about the overreaction to the impending weather are the same people who complain when we’re caught unprepared.

jiggers January 17, 2012 (5:42 pm)

I remember the ice storm of 96′. Icecles were hanging from the telephone wires and tree branches for days. We don’t need that to happen again. It resembled like being in a frozen hell. The City snow plows and salt trucks better be ready and not pull another one on us.

JayDee January 17, 2012 (5:43 pm)

No Snow…I hope we hear from you tomorrow. Too bad the Blackbird Bistro is no more because I am sure they could have served you crow. We may not hit 14 inches, but given that 3″ last Sunday caused problems, even the lower amounts are problematic.

JayDee January 17, 2012 (5:46 pm)

Besides it is time for the semi-annual “Metro Mystery Bus Challenge”. Is your bus route being serviced? Is the bus you are waiting for coming? If it is coming, will it stop? Or is it already full, or the street iced over? I have seen a small a grade as at 49th and Admiral stop an articulated bus. Maybe One Bus Away will remove some of the challenge…

yo January 17, 2012 (5:58 pm)

Where in the world is Patrick?
Updates, please!

sickofmetro January 17, 2012 (6:04 pm)

I don’t understand all the panic today. It took me an hour and a half to get 7 miles (from my job downtown to West Seattle) on the bus tonight, thanks to Metro’s ingenuity. Metro, in all its wisdom, put chains on all the bus tires, buses that are running routes on totally dry roads. The first bus had broken chains (from driving on dry pavement), which caused flat tires. So we got off and ran back to the original stop to get on the next bus. The second bus had chains so it couldn’t go over 30 mph, and it was on the snow route (even though the roads are totally dry) so it took forever. When it does snow, they don’t bother to put chains on the busrs or put them on snow route, but when the roads are clear and dry, by all means, put chains on and put them on snow route, and cause totally unnecessary problems! Great planning!

Allen January 17, 2012 (6:05 pm)

Who is Patrick?

Patrick January 17, 2012 (6:06 pm)

I will post a brief update @ 730 when the GFS ( shows storm placement ) and NAM ( shows precip ) are released. and then will make a final update @ 11pm when all models update for the last time tonight.

Petunia January 17, 2012 (6:07 pm)

What’s this about The Blackboard Bistro ‘no more’? and people please..even if you’re on a ‘flat street’ yours isn’t the only street the truck has to service. Maybe the truck is stuck on a not so flat street and couldn’t get to yours. None of us are the only garbage/recycle customer in the city..

Underwhelmed January 17, 2012 (6:10 pm)

The snow is set to arrive in our area tomorrow between 4am and 6am.

Yawn….

JayDee January 17, 2012 (6:12 pm)

Petunia: Black-bird is gone; Blackboard, still here. I suspect they could serve a mean crow quiche nonetheless. ;-)

MikeRussellFoto January 17, 2012 (6:13 pm)

@Petunia, I read that as Blackboard at first, too. But they said BlackBIRD Bistro is no longer. (Hence the eat crow joke.) I was about to cry if something had happened to BlackBOARD. :)

Petunia January 17, 2012 (6:15 pm)

Well I guess I have to eat crow or read more carefully! Thanks! I love Blackboard Bistro..

GenHillOne January 17, 2012 (6:45 pm)

I don’t think anyone thinks we’re the only trash pick-up in town either, Petunia, just commiserating and comparing notes. I actually saw trucks within a couple of blocks of our house today. But thanks.

East Coast Cynic January 17, 2012 (6:52 pm)

Metro forgot to tell us it was cancelling the 21X!!! Had I known, I would have taken the 15 minute late arriving 21 local out of downtown instead of holding out hope (while freezing) that the express would arrive and settling for another late arriving 21 local 15 minutes later.

Steph January 17, 2012 (6:59 pm)

My mom is flying out tomorrow morning on Southwest at 9:30 am. Her flight has ALREADY BEEN CANCELED. Given that there is no actual snow falling from the ski and none falling all day at Sea Tac, I find that a little pre-mature and re-donk-u-lous.

MSL January 17, 2012 (7:09 pm)

Blackboard is the new Blackbird and it is hands down one of the BEST restaurants in Seattle. I think it remains a hidden gem because it is hard to see. But trust me – I moved here about seven months ago, am a total foodie and would rate this place as one of the top fifteen in the city!

SJ2 January 17, 2012 (7:13 pm)

Thanks so much for the updates Patrick! I really appreciate your interpretations of the forecasts.

Keith January 17, 2012 (7:44 pm)

Jak’s posted on their Facebook page that they might be closing early tonight, and no one is answering the phone there now :( How will I get through Snopocalypse without them?

M January 17, 2012 (7:50 pm)

Temps in upper Alki have actually gone up a little since 4:00…Hmmm…

Laconique January 17, 2012 (7:54 pm)

Keith- was just at Jak’s and they are definitely open!!

KJ January 17, 2012 (8:06 pm)

Is the bridge still closing tonight?

WSB January 17, 2012 (8:20 pm)

KJ – SDOT has not issued any official change to the schedule. So I would assume it is – but if you are coming back home from somewhere and are able to check our bridge cam in the upper right of the home page before you leave (or on the Traffic page), it will generally show either roadblock or no, since the camera is trained right by the Delridge exit and that’s where it’s blocked off. – TR

yo January 17, 2012 (8:11 pm)

Patrick, I am (im)patiently wating for your 7:30 update…
;0)

Patrick January 17, 2012 (8:19 pm)

OK, for those of you who are interested, I just took a look at the MM5, NAM, NAM – MM5 ( diff. model )the GFS, the WRF-GFS as well as the operational models and the ensemble members for the next 24 hours and the snow totals relayed by media earlier look to be on par with what the aforementioned models show. There is a minor hiccup and I think that it can be thrown out the window BUT the NAM – MM5 is now showing only 1″ of snow for Seattle but this is NOT supported by any of the other models and I think this is due to the NAM-MM5 thinking that the northerly flow out of the Fraser River Valley will be so strong that it dries out the lower levels so much that it limits precip entirely which is VERY rare in this type of setup with such a strong storm off the coast with a subtropical moisture fetch that extends almost to the Phillipines. I think the final outcome will be when the final ECMWF and GEM models come out around 9 pm, if those models are on board with precip. amounts along with the other models minus the ( NAM – MM5 ) then the current forecast looks good!

Ron January 17, 2012 (8:29 pm)

Still all nice and dry in the Alki area!

question January 17, 2012 (8:41 pm)

Patrick-
Great! Which “current forecast” is that? We’ve had so many in the last 3 days…

Mary January 17, 2012 (8:47 pm)

Best blog ever and I’m not even in West Seattle right now! I work on Queen Anne and staying there tonight to avoid whatever comes in the a.m. Drive carefully!

Steve f January 17, 2012 (8:48 pm)

I’m staying with my prediction to my wife yesterday that tomorrow will be essentially snow free and prob nice on Friday. I may be wrong but there you go. I remember back in like 79 or 80, a forecaster name Ray Ramsey (I believe) said we were in for a huge dumping, Seattle closing down, etc. I went out partying with my friends celebrating our snow day off the next day. Busses being chained, etc. Needless to say, we all awoke to bright, crisp blue skies and a hangover. And dry pavement. I always recall that in the face of news of monster storms and what have you.

bsmomma January 17, 2012 (8:48 pm)

All this for the possibility of up to 3″ by 8am tomorrow…….. Boo!!!!!

MB January 17, 2012 (8:51 pm)

Regardless if this is an over reaction, hype or true. At LEAST people will be prepared. Child care is set in place, alternate rides, routes etc. You’d all be complaining if we just got hit bad and you hadn’t had any of that set up, no chance to get your chains out etc. So stop complaining and be grateful. I for one don’t have any kids to worry about, but I’m glad they arent sending reckless bus drivers out on the streets with your kids, when it gets dark so early etc. =D

curious January 17, 2012 (8:58 pm)

1″? I think I might cry.

Chris January 17, 2012 (9:09 pm)

Weather for dummies, but hey, it sells.

Silver Interweb Surfer January 17, 2012 (9:16 pm)

I predict 15″ on Seattle. Why, because I held my finger in the air and that is about as accurate as anything or anyone. You can quote me on that.

Zoey January 17, 2012 (9:21 pm)

Do you guys know anything about Vashon for tomorrow? Their website SAID it was two hours late…but they took it down?

Chris January 17, 2012 (9:30 pm)

It’s predicted that Vashon will sink under the weight of the snow that is predicted to fall. Website will not be updated because they have abandoned the island as a result of this forecast.

Zoey January 17, 2012 (9:35 pm)

@Chris…sounds plausible..
@WSB School is canceled for VASHON too btw

WSB January 17, 2012 (9:46 pm)

thanks, will add.

linda January 17, 2012 (9:45 pm)

Light flakes coming down in Morgan Junction area for last half hour, slowly picking up. Not enough right now to do more than look pretty as they drift through the illumination from the street lights.
From the state of the store shelves this evening, you’d think we were expecting to get snowed in for the next 6 months. Probably a result of watching “The Day After Tomorrow” one too many times after listening to way too many weather reports today.

Patrick (not THE Patrick) January 17, 2012 (9:47 pm)

So I assume the water taxi has us battle on the dock for seats tomorrow morning right? I am not sure how this side works, I have only taken it home.

Christie January 17, 2012 (10:03 pm)

ligth snow in HIghland park – here it comes!!

WSB January 17, 2012 (10:03 pm)

We’re about to launch the late-night story now that both sets of late-night forecasts are in … will add URL in a minute.

HPK January 17, 2012 (10:08 pm)

Christie, I am in HPK – othello overlooking the city and nothing. Bright lights are shining, no snow or even the slightest sign… I wish!

LyndaB January 17, 2012 (10:11 pm)

Patrick, could you share with us, who are new to your weather interpretations, background on your knowledge? I am curious to know hobby or occupation? Sorry, I’ve missed out on any early introductions. Thanks!

Lura Ercolano January 17, 2012 (10:50 pm)

About bare store shelves – it is not implausible to consider that I-5 south and I-90 east could be closed for a couple days, greatly limiting truck deliveries to local stores, even if the snow entirely misses Seattle.

Troika January 18, 2012 (2:49 am)

2.48AM dry as a bone in Arbor Heights. is it delay, or just hysterical anticipating?

zotta January 18, 2012 (9:15 am)

Seattle drivers tend to have difficulty with three different kinds of weather, at least early on: snow, rain or sun. If its overcast and dry they do just fine.

Sorry, comment time is over.