Home › Forums › Open Discussion › Georgia (country), South Ossetia, Russia and WWIII?
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August 9, 2008 at 9:27 pm #587730
CaduceusMemberhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm
Thoughts??
I’m still not sure what to think…
If no treaty is reached, we’re allied with Georgia and Russia is allied to Ossetia.
Things could possibly progress rather rapidly.
August 9, 2008 at 10:48 pm #633750
JanSParticipantI hadn’t realized that this had escalated to this level until I read about it this morning…and I had visions at the same time of dear Mr. Putin sitting and socializing with “W” and his wife at the opening ceremonies at the olympics…strange bedfellows indeed. I don’t know what to make of it either. Definitely something to pay attention to..
August 9, 2008 at 10:49 pm #633751
JoBParticipantI’m with you. i am also unsure what to think
August 10, 2008 at 10:05 am #633752
elgregoMemberThere’s so much information and disinformation coming from both sides, and such a muddled history. And now the Ukraine is saying that the Russian ships based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol aren’t welcome back if they conduct operations near Georgia.
If the Ukrainians and the Russians start shooting at each other, then we’re gonna have a really serious problem on our hands.
August 11, 2008 at 8:28 am #633753August 11, 2008 at 4:55 pm #633754
JoBParticipantunfortunately, armed conflict is the example the US has set for the world.
Until we remove or at least moderate that example, this is how we can expect the world to react to that example.
August 11, 2008 at 6:02 pm #633755
JennyMemberOh puhleeze. WE set the example of armed conflict for the world???
Well, y’know, now that you mention it, Japan only attacked us at Pearl Harbor because OUR navy had been forcibly blocking ships from delivering vital supplies to them during the late ’30s, so maybe WWII was really our fault too.
Look, the problem is Russia has always been a dictatorial, undemocratic society. First under the czars, then under the communists, and now under the post-communist fascists.
For an example of how modern Russia conducts its foreign policy vis-a-vis its smaller neighbors, just remember Chechnya.
Even when it comes to domestic economics, Russia is a kleptocracy – and it’s gotten so bad that foreign investment & joint ventures are starting to dry up. See this article from 10 days ago (before the Georgian crisis):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/27/ccbp127.xml&page=1
“The last train carrying the optimists out of Russian equities has just left the station,” was one reaction.
“The place looks rotten to the core,” was another.
“There is no longer an investment case for Russia now,” opined a third. “Russia has reached tipping point.”
A fourth agreed: “The Russian government doesn’t care about foreign investors. If foreign investment gets stomped on, then so be it.”
For businessmen whose attitude towards the country has generally been one of extreme optimism, often in defiance of political trends and the counsel of those whose fortunes do not depend on Russia, this is despondent stuff.
I don’t know if Russia’s real goal here is to gobble up just S. Ossetia or all of Georgia, or even more, but the way they’re acting is RUSSIAN to the core.
August 11, 2008 at 6:12 pm #633756
JoBParticipantyes, the problems you note with Russia are real…
but does that make our current example of military conflict as a way to solve problems any less germaine?
after all.. Russia moved in to save Ossetia from the Georgians. who were going to retake them with force even though they had democratically declared their independence.
in this case.. it puts Russia in the ironical position of excusing it’s actions as defending democracy…
now.. where have i heard that before?
August 11, 2008 at 6:29 pm #633757
elgregoMemberWhile I’m not gonna come out and flatly say that we set an example for armed intervention in the world, I think it doesn’t look very honest of us to ask for peace and restraint at a time when we’re involved in two wars, one of which, it can be argued, was unprovoked.
Plus, I think Russia is looking at what happened to Kosovo and saying “Two can play that game…”
August 11, 2008 at 9:35 pm #633758
JoBParticipanti must admit that since my remarks, the situation there has further deteriorated…
I wish we were actually in a position to make comments on this instead of being in the unenviable position of having done something far too similar ourselves…
August 13, 2008 at 8:27 pm #633759
charlabobParticipantThe United States is reported to be taking over air and seaports in Georgia in a “humanitarian/military action.”
Bush warned Russia that they’d better not get in the way of this humanitarian aid. Yeah, that’s a lot better than the negotiation that commie, Obama, advocates.
This could be the beginning of the October Surprise except that it isn’t October and I’m not surprised.
August 14, 2008 at 1:22 am #633760
elgregoMember^ That was a false statement by the Georgian president. We’re not moving combat forces into Georgia, we’re only delivering humanitarian supplies (and maybe try to rearm them too). We’re not taking over anything there.
August 14, 2008 at 1:40 pm #633761
KenParticipantAshex is right about the history of this conflict even though it is more complex and Byzantine than any newspaper can do justice to.
Russia is acting in Russia’s interest as they see it. Georgia seems to have misinterpreted the situation of had help misinterpreting the situation.
Curious that both Karl Rove and Condi Rice have made extensive visits to Georgia in the preceding weeks.
Mccain’s advisor on the issue is a member of PNAC.
More fun is probably in the pipeline. (pun intended)
August 15, 2008 at 10:04 pm #633762
Tonya42MemberJenny – a brilliant reply.
So, my perception of the replies I’ve read about this are somewhat but not altogether a surprise.
The “progressive” talking points on this whole affair are not adding up.
1) It is George Bush’s fault because we did the same unilateral thing to Iraq.
2) No side is virtuous in this matter, so there isn’t a good side to root for.
Odd, that logic. Let’s assume the core assertions to be true-
1) If the left found the U.S. to be completely and totally wrong in Iraq and in need of a comeuppance, why aren’t they applying the same standard to Russia if Russia has done the same thing?
2) The underlying current IMO of the “virtue” of “insurgents” rallying against the U.S.
Shouldn’t that same standard bestow virtue on the Georgians?
The left shows its knee jerk apologism and sentimentality for Stalinist Russian tactics.
“What is ours is ours, what is yours is negotiable”
–Leonid Brehznev
The Bear is Back!
August 16, 2008 at 1:10 am #633763
JiggersMemberPoland just made the news today in regards to its missile program and is vunerable to open attacks by surrounding countrie’s ABC news reported.
August 16, 2008 at 3:24 am #633764
JoBParticipantTonya42
you apparently missed the part where we aren’t too happy with what is going on there…
in my own words…
“i must admit that since my remarks, the situation there has further deteriorated…
I wish we were actually in a position to make comments on this instead of being in the unenviable position of having done something far too similar ourselves..”
Now.. you have a real nice day.. ya hear?
August 16, 2008 at 4:28 am #633765
AnonymousInactiveTonya42,
What does this even mean?
“The left shows its knee jerk apologism and sentimentality for Stalinist Russian tactics”
I’d like to follow lock step with the left, progressive opinion of what, 3 or 4 posters who obviously represent EVERYONE, but I’m not sure exactly what my position is supposed to be. Your insight would be greatly appreciated.
August 16, 2008 at 2:47 pm #633766
charlabobParticipantJeez, Tonya, I haven’t been called a stalinist since, um, before I was born. Thanks for the flash for the flash of nostalgia.
JT, I’m with you–I may be one of the three or four leftists here and I have trouble keeping up with what I think.
In this case, I think this whole Georgia mess will prove to be something started to support McSame’s campaign. Read the history — doesn’t mean what the Russians are doing is in any way acceptable, but watching grampy play the president — sending Lieberschmaltz as a fact-finder is beyond scary.
It that leftist? Nope — it’s anti McSame! Just in case anyone is keeping score.
August 17, 2008 at 10:53 pm #633767
lizruMemberAn interesting theory on why Russia is invading now is because the U.S. is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, Russia can invade with impunity. As for why? Oil? Border security? South Ossettia savior? I don’t know. I did spend 2 months in Tbilisi and have a tough time giving the Russians the benefit of the doubt on this one.
August 17, 2008 at 11:13 pm #633768
JanSParticipantOK..I want a show of hands here…how many of us here had really, actually heard of South (or north, for that matter) Ossetia before this all started to happen. Be honest….how many? hmmm?
August 18, 2008 at 3:15 am #633769
elgregoMemberI have, but it’s my job to know these things. :)
August 18, 2008 at 3:28 am #633770
KenParticipantI had. And I am familiar with a lot of boring details.
The Poland situation is another wholly manufactured cowboy diplomacy issue.
NATO vs Warsaw Pact moves on the part of the US have been designed entirely as full employment acts for conservatives who have invested their entire career into using anti communism as the Bogey man to control the sheep and as a sales force for missile manufacturers.
The similarities in Georgia are indeed closer to Kosavo than Iraq especially now since the US ignored ethnic cleansing is nearly complete in Iraq.
The two territories have not been governed directly by Georgias government in Tbilisi since the friggin 90’s and South Ossetia has a large number of ethnic Russians and other minorities who have long had Russian passports.
No matter how many neocons try to make this into a “russian aggression” meme, the truth is the Georgian army, trained, equipped and clothed (US army surplus) tried to take total control of a breakaway region Russia had agreed to protect from Georgia and had troops nearby to back up the “peacekeepers” it had installed years ago.
Once again, borders drawn by superpowers across ethnic regions become contentious. This has many many historic parallels and does not fit exactly into any previous mold at the moment.
It could have gone the way of the results of Austro-Hungarian empire breakup, or the breakup of any or the colonies of the European powers of the 18th or 19th centuries.
A US administration who understood diplomacy would not have allowed either of these situations (or hundreds of similar situations) get to the point where troops are used.
We have to assume the State Department and its parts have been just a debased and crony infested as the Justice Department and the Defense Department.
August 18, 2008 at 4:39 pm #633771
Tonya42MemberJoB-
Good morning, your statement below realy doesn’t detract from what was stated initially, it’s a rather passive statement at best.
“i must admit that since my remarks, the situation there has further deteriorated…”
I too wish this was not happening, and my statements about the left having knee jerk reactions is right on target (although I was really speaking to all the websites I frequented this past week not just this one). I do understand to a certain degree though, it is hard to condemn something that most hard leftist believe in, even if to a degree.
The Russian military deployed several SS-21 missile launchers and supplied vehicles to South Ossetia on Friday.
Hello Europe?
Can you hear those chains rattling? Unfortunately Europe is chained by Russian gas and oil. It’s toothless again, what do you think that means down the road here over the next few years for the US?
You remember the joke… France is always there, when they need us. If you think that if Russia doesn’t back down and probably won’t due to passive support or lack of accountability by NATO the UN and the EU as a whole, this will most definitely turn into an issue that the US will have to address
Anyone else seeing parallels between this and Israel/Palestine?
And JoB – I make it a point to always have a nice day but thanks for your well wishes nonethless, that was sweet :)
August 18, 2008 at 4:59 pm #633772
JoBParticipantTonya,
leftists? who are leftists?
if leftists are anyone who doesn’t agree with the current neo-conservative ideology.. then, the majority of America is now leftist.
As for knee-jerk reactions… don’t you think it’s a bit knee-jerk to assume those big bad commies are bullying those poor little Georgians when it appears the Georgians actually initiated the fight they knew they would be getting when they chose to invade South Ossetia in spite of Russian peacekeeping troops there to prevent them doing just that?
That’s like blaming the big brother who intercedes when the neighborhood bully is stealing his little brother’s lunch money… for bullying the bully.
I personally think Russia’s reaction was extreme… but we haven’t been dealing with that particular neighborhood bully for decades.
could it be just a little bit knee-jerk to assume that the Russian tanks will just keep rolling through Europe? Other than fear, what historical perspective do you have for that?
Just because you were raised with the big bad commie scare doesn’t make it true. Check your history. Russia was not a threat to Europe… and in spite of the cold war.. was never as much threat to us as we were to them.
In any event, it is only an international problem if we choose to make it one…
Isreal and Palastine? LOL.. Now that is knee jerk.
You really shouldn’t let people pull your chain that way … when the internet and access to actual history is so easily available.
August 18, 2008 at 8:19 pm #633773
KenParticipantFor those interested in the actual history and why it seems to be invisible to the corporate media:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/18/2337/96853/939/569608
Bilmon has a long fact filled lesson.
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