West Seattle Snow Watch: Saturday morning? Plus, road readiness

11:48 AM: Here’s where things are at with the buzz of possible snow in the days ahead: The National Weather Service‘s new “forecast discussion” – where they go in-depth with the info that’s shaping their forecasts – says “spotty snow showers” are likely tomorrow night around much of the region. Snow showers remain possible through Sunday and Monday, and then Tuesday has a possible collision between lingering cold air and incoming “warm rain” that might “start as snow.” As always with these things, we won’t REALLY know till we get there – but if you had to summarize it now, think “snow readiness” but not “snow panic.” (Note that the forecast also mentions wind tomorrow.) Meantime, SDOT says it has “crews on standby” (here’s its readiness report) and also warns about possible black ice Saturday night. WSDOT is talking about its readiness at a media briefing this afternoon. Forecasts should be updated by 3:30 pm or so; we’ll add the latest then (or anything sooner).

3:33 PM UPDATE: Now the forecast has accelerated to possible snow showers in the morning. It’ll be notably colder in the next several days, with highs expected in the 30s.

Patrick January 13, 2012 (6:54 pm)

OK, I’m back and feel it is necessary to give a brief update regarding the snow situation.

As of now most of the models I referenced in a previous thread are still on board with a possible significant snow event next week HOWEVER, the newest guidance indicates that the timing of the aforementioned ” snow event ” actually occurs as we approach the mid morning to early afternoon time frame of monday. Right now I am NOT going to list the snow amounts being spit out by the GFS ( Global Forecasting Simulation ) The NAM ( North American Model ) or the ECMWF ( EURO ) as I feel I don’t want anyone to think I am inflating the snowfall amount or that I am ” wishcasting ” I just feel it prudent not to cry wolf in a situation that doesn’t warrant it ( AT THE MOMENT )given the fact that it is already hard enough to get widespread snow here as it is.

On a another related note: I do see fairly moderate snow amounts for a good portion of the region with this first snow threat starting tomorrow ( Saturday ) I would expect the snow to start flying as early as morning in Bellingham and moving south throughout the day. If you happen to live in the PSCZ ( Puget Sound Convergence Zone ) you can expect much more in the way of accumulation.

To summarize, Snow this weekend, mostly showery in nature except in the PSCZ and then possible region wide snow event starting Monday lasting possibly as long as 48 hours. <- – – NOT DEFINITE YET !!!

WSB January 13, 2012 (6:59 pm)

Thanks for the update … there has been SO much chatter, wishful thinking/dreading/whatever, about this, that I wouldn’t be surprised if NOTHING happens :) But we’ll be up in the morning looking for flakes! – TR

Patrick January 13, 2012 (7:03 pm)

@ TR, come Monday you likely won’t have to ” look ” for flakes :)

I will try and post an In-depth update in about 2-3 hours once all the models have finished initializing for the day.

~ Patrick

andrea January 13, 2012 (8:14 pm)

Patrick (and WSB!)…thank you! We have 2 little ones here that are just about to burst with the hope and excitement of snow. Please, please, please, snow, snow, snow!

Patrick January 13, 2012 (8:28 pm)

Some pretty exciting news right now as many locations in BC even inter-coastal communities are reporting snow right now and I would expect to see snow in Bellingham in the next hour or so, and likely starting in the central sound before sunrise.

Passive Aggressive January 13, 2012 (9:30 pm)

Please God, no snow! I have to get my kids to school and me to work.

Donald January 13, 2012 (10:33 pm)

Hello patrick,I was wondering if you ever got the new model runs in? And why is noaa not saying anything about this in there forecast discution? I myself love the snow and am not getting my hopes up as always.

Patrick January 13, 2012 (10:57 pm)

Donald, the newest runs have come in and so far things look on track for the weekend, however next week is looking a little bit “iffy ” nothing to get really worried about for nos lovers YET!

However there are some minor smaller scale features tat have thrown a wrench into the significant snow we were looking at a couple hours ago and just yesterday but taking that into consideration, one has to realize that Meteorology is an imperfect science and thus details ARE likely to change and change some more and change some more again, so at this point I am really focusing on this weekend and will have more updated info regarding next week by Sunday night, it is at that point that myself and the NWS and most media outlets will have a much better idea as the type of pattern AND Precipitation that is likely to fall and where concerning next week.

Donald January 13, 2012 (11:47 pm)

What time saturday will seattle start to see snow fall?

surly custodian January 17, 2012 (1:49 am)

My #82 is still on reroute with no snow in sight – I swear it feels like the weather is taunting us. ‘We’re gonna snow …we’re realllly gonna snow. Psych! Not.’

Very frustrating when I know fellow employees are using this as an excuse not to come in.

Sorry, comment time is over.