By Tracy Record
West Seattle Blog editor
After Sound Transit discovered West Seattle light rail’s potential price tag had swollen to $7+ billion, the agency examined the rest of the ST3 plan … and now reveals another big number: The overall cost of building out the system could be up to $30 billion more than last year’s Long-Range Plan estimate.
That was the biggest news from the Enterprise Initiative briefing at this afternoon’s Sound Transit Board meeting (which also noted cost-projection jumps in other aspects of the transit system, such as the cost of providing service, and a drop in expected revenue). No new project-specific estimates yet – for West Seattle or any other ST3 project – but staffers promised they’re coming and will be provided to board members as soon as next month.
One of the Seattle reps on the board, City Councilmember Dan Strauss, asked how the estimates could jump that much in a year.
Deputy CEO Terri Mestas said the agency had been using a different methodology and hadn’t really taken a “bottom-up” look at the cost projections until after the West Seattle revision.
Before getting the new numbers, the board first voted on guiding principles for the Enterprise Initiative, after a spirited discussion over an amendment provided by the board’s other City of Seattle rep, Mayor Bruce Harrell. He wanted to be sure that decisions took into account the need to serve centers of growth and employment; some board members suggested that was a thinly disguised way to focus on Seattle, a perennial sore spot for non-King County board members, since ST is funded by and serves people in Snohomish and Pierce Counties too. After more reminders about the need to finish the system’s “spine,” the amendment passed 8-6, and the main motion with the principles passed too. (Harrell circulated this statement after the meeting.)
After that, CEO Dow Constantine began the update on the Enterprise Initiative, what it’s uncovering, and where it’s going. Most of what he said is in this memo. Here’s the excerpt related to capital projects including West Seattle light rail:
Capital Program: We are projecting $14–20 billion in added costs (2025 dollars), or $22–30 billion in year-of-expenditure dollars, for ST3 light rail projects. These increases are primarily driven by extraordinary COVID-era construction inflation, right-of-way cost escalation, and the added complexity of project design and delivery. The affected projects include:
o The West Seattle, Ballard, Tacoma Dome, Everett, Tacoma Community College, and South Kirkland–Issaquah Link extensions.
o Infill stations at Graham Street and Boeing Access Road
Constantine stressed that he believes they have plenty of time to “make a course correction,” but they’ll have to, because if they don’t, “we will eventually see our program become unaffordable.” He insisted that ST “is n strong financial shape right now.” And deputy CEO Victoria Baecher Wassmer added that “there is still significant financial capacity to deliver ST3.”
But in what form? That’s the multi-billion-dollar question, presumably to be determined next year. Deputy CEO Mestas elaborated that they obviously have more latitude over “pre-baselined projects” (of which West Seattle is one). Thoughg this wasn’t meant to be a meeting where cost-cutting ideas were proposed, one did emerge toward the start of the meeting: Board member Claudia Balducci, King County Councilmember from Bellevue, said ST should look at whether a second downtown tunnel is really necessary.
Meantime, deputy CEO Mestas went on to further elaborate about what ST says has pumped up the overall costs, including tariffs – though board chair Dave Somers, Snohomish County Executive, suggested it might be a bit too early to blame those – labor shortages, supply-chain disruptions, and the cost of acquiring right-of-way, and offered what amounted to a four-point plan on ways costs could be reduced:
It should also be noted that in addition to higher costs, today’s presentation also featured projections of lower revenue and financing:
Next month, board committees will bite into aspects of all this:
The big-picture decisionmaking is expected to be along the timeline on the lower half of this slide:
See the full slide deck here. Archived video of the meeting will eventually appear here.
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