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November 3, 2012 at 10:04 pm #776266
dobroParticipant“I’m still unclear on your answer…”
Obama-303
Romney-234
is my answer. The rest of your speculation on what “everyone” says isn’t worth discussing.
November 3, 2012 at 10:18 pm #776267
JVMemberToo complex for you?
November 3, 2012 at 10:37 pm #776268
JoBParticipantJV
“the question is, do YOU believe there is anywhere near the enthusiasm for Obama today as there was in 2008?”
I agree.. the enthusiasm for Obama isn’t what it was in the last election…
but the lack of enthusiasm for Mitt’s policies on the civil liberties of the women of this nation is substantial…
as is the lack of enthusiasm for Mitt in the African American population..
or the booming Latino population
or among the elderly who have a lot at stake in this election
The hope and change slogan may be a little battered right now…
but i wouldn’t count on that to keep those who prefer a slightly tarnished Obama to the repercussions of a Mitt victory from the polls.
November 3, 2012 at 11:00 pm #776269
JVMemberThank you JoB, your first sentence addresses the crux of the matter. A lot of assumptions are made using bad numbers on the front end, which skew the results of the polls.
I’m not saying its intentional, that’s how it’s always done. But that model is wrong this time.
It is like establishing the high-tide mark at the peak of Superstom Sandy, then predicting another massive flood next time there is a high tide. 2008 was a super storm, 2012 is not.
November 3, 2012 at 11:08 pm #776270
JoBParticipantJV
If you think my first line confirms your hypothesis. you would have been better informed by reading the balance of what i had to say.
the polls traditionally under-count the demographic with the most reason to vote against Mitt.
the flood of voters who come out to oppose Mitt may well be as large or larger than that which came out so enthusiastically to elect Obama…
You have to watch out when projecting super-storms…
The backlash to Republican arrogance and the massive amounts of cash dumped into this election by business interests may well exceed the enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 …
I personally hope it does. We might get some substantive change if enough voters tell the two parties with their vote that enough is enough ..
because enough is enough.
November 3, 2012 at 11:21 pm #776271
kootchmanMemberThe enthusiasm “gap” is this, Obama supporters are disappointed, (sigh) Romney supporters are mad as hell … which side would you pick to storm the castle?
I saw this sign in Virginia … “When Obama called, the SEALS came, when the SEALS called, Obama fled. Benghazi.
That’s not slightly tarnished. That’s caked in rust.
Romney beats Obama – Univ of Colo .. 100% accurate last 8 presidential elections.
November 3, 2012 at 11:26 pm #776272
JVMemberCash is only bad when republicans raise it huh?
And I’m not predicting a super storm, I’m predicting a reasonable win for Romney of about 300 electoral votes, give or take 20.
Obama will probably still win Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, and maybe just maybe Pennsylvania. 253 is the max Obama will get.
So its NOT a super storm…I’d equate it more to the post storm American rescue and clean up effort.
November 3, 2012 at 11:29 pm #776273
dobroParticipant“Too complex for you?”
No. Not very complex at all,in fact, just a right wing talking point that you heard “everyone” say. As I said, not worth discussing.
November 3, 2012 at 11:35 pm #776274
kootchmanMemberWell we can tell.. we know the demographics… we don’t know who will vote.
The Obama defectors
Barring some kind of last-minute surge, President Obama is going to fall well shy of the 52.9 percent he won in the 2008 election. It might still be good enough to win, but it won’t be resounding.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/the-obama-defectors/
Obama had 52.9 per cent last election. Ya think he can maintain that margin with his record? It only takes 3%… A slice here, a slice there.. the republican base stayed intact… and expanded.
November 4, 2012 at 1:58 am #776275
SmittyParticipantI think the Ohio early voting swing between 2008 and 2012 is more than just a talking point. That said, Ohio may or may not reflect reality for the rest of the country. It also might not be enough to swing the election.
I think once FL and VA are called for Romney early the media may start to confirm the Obama enthusiasm gap between 08 and 12……..
November 4, 2012 at 2:12 am #776276
JoBParticipantKootch..
“Romney supporters are mad as hell … which side would you pick to storm the castle? “
Women are mad as hell… they won’t storm the castle but i am betting they will come out and vote
November 4, 2012 at 2:15 am #776277
kayoParticipantI just can’t wait for this all to be over. Sick of all of it. The amount of money spent on this election should make us all pause and then throw up in disgust. The fact that two thirds of registered Republicans believe in Demonic possession while less than half believe humans are contributing to climate change, also pretty much sums up the sad state of the electorate in this country (http://www.salon.com/2012/11/02/poll_most_republicans_believe_in_demonic_possession/). Explains a lot if Romney wins…and not in a good way.
November 4, 2012 at 2:15 am #776278
JoBParticipantJV
“Cash is only bad when republicans raise it huh?”
no.. cash is bad when people/businesses who don’t even have to put their name behind their advertisements cans spend unlimited dollars on campaign ads on an election.
You guys whoop and holler about the vaguest possibility that foreign donors can’t be adequately tracked on the Obama website…
but find it perfectly acceptable that organizations with no mandate to disclose their donors fund-raise outside of the United States?
It’s bad when unlimited dollars can be spent on an election with no public accountability.
November 4, 2012 at 2:17 am #776279
JoBParticipantNovember 4, 2012 at 2:19 am #776280
kayoParticipantAnd Job, I am mad as hell and most other women I know are equally fired up and won’t allow these troglodytes to drag us backwards. There is not a Republican I can vote for this year because I am so angry. NO WAY. Stay out of our private lives. Stay out of our bedrooms. Stay out of our doctor’s offices. Back off. I’ve HAD it up to here with their misogynistic hipocrisy!
November 4, 2012 at 2:22 am #776281
jamminjMember“Romney beats Obama – Univ of Colo .. 100% accurate last 8 presidential elections.”
LOL, willing to put your house on it?
They can’t be wrong!!
(Vegas loves suckers like you)
November 4, 2012 at 2:25 am #776282
JoBParticipantkootch..
Kayo and her friends sound pretty mad..
and they sound like they are going to do something about it..
i know my friends and I feel the same way
and we will vote for sure…
i know little old ladies who voted republican all of their lives who don’t intend to make that mistake on Tuesday…
next time you ask a woman who she is going to vote for and you hear that hesitation..
remind yourself that if she is in any way dependent upon you for anything.. especially a tip…
she is likely taking a page out of Mitts book and telling you what you want to hear
women are good at it.
It’s how we survived before we had rights.
November 4, 2012 at 2:55 am #776283
SmittyParticipant“NO WAY. Stay out of our private lives. Stay out of our bedrooms. Stay out of our doctor’s offices. Back off. I’ve HAD it up to here with their misogynistic hipocrisy!”
I have been hearing that since 1980. What exactly are you afraid will be done that the “troglodytes” have not been able to do since then?
November 4, 2012 at 2:58 am #776284
SmittyParticipantHey job, guess please? Just want all this talk on record, ya know! ;-)
November 4, 2012 at 4:38 am #776285
kayoParticipantNovember 4, 2012 at 5:09 am #776286
TJoadMemberHate to rain on Smitty’s parade, but there is no path to victory for Romney in the Electoral College, and there never had been. The fewest electoral votes Obama will get is 280.
November 4, 2012 at 5:19 am #776287
JoBParticipantsmitty..
“I have been hearing that since 1980. What exactly are you afraid will be done that the “troglodytes” have not been able to do since then?”
two generations of women mistakenly thought their equal rights had been fought for and won …
they bought all of the excuses about why things weren’t moving faster…
until your guys came out of their sexist closet and started saying really stupid stuff like women who don’t behave appropriately deserve to be raped and rape is just another means of contraception and …
Do you really think women are so browbeaten that they will sit back and says thanks for the opportunity to turn the clocks back.
As a woman i will tell you is that my assessment is that the same women who didn’t want to be called feminists in the 80s are more than impatient now.. they are pissed off.
payback is a bitch.
I haven’t entered the winner takes all it’s a sporting match election game yet..
and i don’t think i will now by giving you numbers.
There is simply too much at stake in this election to take it lightly.
November 4, 2012 at 8:10 am #776288
kootchmanMember“”NO WAY. Stay out of our private lives. Stay out of our bedrooms. Stay out of our doctor’s offices. Back off. I’ve HAD it up to here with their misogynistic hipocrisy!”
Stop inviting us in. When you put those issues up to the general public via tax dollars.. we are invited. Make it an issue between you and your private insurance company or doctor. The public purse is just that.. public.
November 4, 2012 at 10:44 am #776289
kootchmanMemberH of R stays republican.
Looks like two more republican governors.
Senate, looks to stay democratic.. but we have a plan for that… right out of the Wisconsin playbook…… recall elections for democratic senators who managed to not hit this election cycle. Citizens United is far from over. Those PAC’s still have wads of cash. Obama carried 28 states last election. Any Democratic Senator in a red state is going to be at risk.
Presidential race… up for grabs but Romney methinks gets the Big Chair…
November 4, 2012 at 1:54 pm #776290
redblackParticipantJV:
Smitty/Dobro are talking about 2 different things because Smitty questions the methods and Dobro is citing (flawed) polls.
i, too, question the methods.
we’re still talking about polls of voters with land lines, right?
nonetheless, smitty praises nate silver and his “poll of polls” analysis. i agree that nate silver is smart and good at what he does. so let’s look at his web site:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
he gives pennsylvania a 3.7% chance of going to romney and a 15% of ohio going to romney.
also look at the graph of aggregated poll numbers for the electoral college, percentage chance of a win, and percentage of the popular vote. the percentage chance for a win for obama stands at 85%, according to silver’s math.
republicans should also consider all of the third party candidates out there, like gary johnson, and the fact that there are a lot of people who are going to write in ron paul. that will affect the popular vote, but not the electoral college. so my prediction is that the republican ticket (and brand) is going to be badly fractured by “independents.”
i think you guys need a miracle.
electoral college?
obama 294 – romney 244, with florida and colorado going to romney. obama wins PA easily, and squeaks out OH and VA.
but i think that if early voting exit polls are any indication, the popular vote will approach landslide territory for obama.
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