Official Electoral College Prediction Thread!

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This topic contains 129 replies, has 0 voices, and was last updated by  Smitty 3 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #605438

    Smitty
    Participant

    Good luck! No prizes, sorry!

    Romney 291

    Obama 247

    This is a good tool:

    http://www.270towin.com/

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    #776242

    EdSane
    Participant

    284 Obama

    254 Romney

    #776243

    jwws
    Participant
    #776244

    dobro
    Participant

    I’m going to go with Nate Silver at 538.com. He has a stellar record over the last 4 elections. He has Obama at 303 and Romney at 234.

    #776245

    Smitty
    Participant

    That guy is pretty darn smart – also intrade has it 67/33 Obama – and they have a good record as well.

    My theory is that they are assuming 2008 party turnout percentages in these polls and it will be very different come Tuesday.

    We shall see!

    #776246

    dobro
    Participant

    The other outfit with an excellent track record is the Princeton Election Consortium…

    http://election.princeton.edu/

    They use only state polls to make their assessments and they have Obama at 319 and Romney at 219.

    #776247

    kootchman
    Member

    Michael Barone

    Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470#.UJSVy2k6WzY

    DENVER — A University of Colorado economic model that has correctly predicted the last eight presidential elections shows Mitt Romney emerging as the victor in 2012.

    So far.. there are 220,00 fewer early Democratic voters than 08’…there are 47,000 MORE Republican early voters than 08’… in Ohio. Right you are Smitty.

    We will see.

    #776248

    Genesee Hill
    Participant

    Unfortunately, it looks like Mitt’s dog will be back to riding on top of the Rambler American. No Air Force One. Sorry, pooch.

    #776249

    Smitty
    Participant

    Better than being served with chianti and a side of fava beans!

    ;-)

    #776250

    JanS
    Participant

    That would be “beans”. So..are you condemning all Indonesians because they consider dog a “delicacy”? I’m sure they think some of our eating habits are strange, too..

    #776251

    Smitty
    Participant

    Fixed!

    I would never condemn anyone for traditions – just not certain I would partake – especially after being raised on spam and pineapple. That’s just me.

    What is your guess on the electoral?

    #776252

    JanS
    Participant

    I have no idea as to how the electoral will go. I think that this vote is going to be close, both popular and electoral….I really don’t see one or the other trouncing their opponent…and I certainly don’t see Romney winning by the huge numbers mentioned above. I think that’s wishful thinking :)

    #776253

    Smitty
    Participant

    Let’s just hope we don’t end up at 269/269. It is very plausible.

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfIE

    Oh lord………

    #776254

    dobro
    Participant

    That’s not gonna happen. Just more horse race media hype. There will be a winner.

    #776255

    dobro
    Participant

    Here’s what Nate Silver says today about “informing” vs “entertaining”…

    “…Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.”

    #776256

    Smitty
    Participant

    “If the state polls are right”

    And, *that* is the key.

    Right wingers (like myself!) are banking on the fact that the polls are weighted to reflect the voting turnout of 2008. If the D/R/I weighting per State do match 2008 then this thing is over. I contend that the enthusiasm Obama had in 2008 has waned.

    Unskwewedpolls.com (right wing) takes the polls and weights them based on the actual respondents D/R/I rather than re-weighting. We will find out real quick (Virginia) if these guys are on to something.

    http://unskewedpolls.com

    My fear is that if these guys are right – Romney wins by a large margin – and the voter fraud accusations will begin because everyone is so used to the re-weighted polls.

    Time will tell…….don;t you love this stuff?

    #776257

    dobro
    Participant

    I do, actually. The people at the Princeton site I put up base all their projections on state polls only and have batted 98% in the last couple of elections. It’s hard to imagine all of those polls suddenly becoming so wrong that the 19 of 20 swing state polls that Obama leads are just wrong. we’ll know soon.

    #776258

    dobro
    Participant

    PS- It’s usually the guys that are losing that complain the most about “skewed” polls.

    #776259

    JV
    Member

    Howdy neighbors, it’s been a while! I wanted to check back in on the pre-election weekend madness! So let me get right into it:

    Smitty/Dobro are talking about 2 different things because Smitty questions the methods and Dobro is citing (flawed) polls.

    Dobro, the question is, do YOU believe there is anywhere near the enthusiasm for Obama today as there was in 2008? Everyone says NO, so why are the pollsters sampling using numbers based on the assumption that turnout will be the same? Because that’s what they have always done. 2008 was a perfect storm for Obama and not to be used as the standard for pollsters.

    Elections are all about turn out, and Obama voters are apathetic this time around, and independents are breaking to Romney in double digit numbers. Romney has huge crowds and all the momentum, good early voting, and so i predict Romney will win by 3-4 points, with 291 electoral votes. (or 311 if he gets PA)

    #776260

    JanS
    Participant

    JV…dobro didn’t ask the pollsters to do what they do…who knows why? They both have huge crowds….and the only poll that counts is the one that happens on Tuesday. Unless you’re psychic, you, and anyone else, have no idea how it will turn out..

    #776261

    JV
    Member

    We all understand that Jan, I’m just trying to explain to you why the method is flawed so you’re ready on Tuesday. Either that makes sense or it doesn’t. I don’t think that method is credible this time and I explained why. Maybe you think the turnout for Obama will be the same as 2008? These pollsters do, and they are wrong.

    I’m not psychic, but the weekend before the 2008 election we all knew what was going to happen. This year is no different except for the result.

    I suspect 3 out of every 100 people will decide not to be fooled twice, and vote for Romney. That’s a 6 point swing.

    #776262

    Smitty
    Participant

    I agree dobro-it is like complaining about the refs after your team loses.

    That said, I really do have a hard time thinking the turnout for Obama will equal what it was in 2008 like these polls are adjusted to reflect.

    The truth is, they get paid to do this stuff, so they must k ow a heck of a lot more about it than we do.

    We will know real quick Tuesday evening if Romney wins Virginia bigger than 1 percentage point.

    From Ohio: ” as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.”

    #776263

    dobro
    Participant

    “…do YOU believe there is anywhere near the enthusiasm for Obama today as there was in 2008? Everyone says NO…”

    Here’s the problem with that statement- everyone does not say no, only the folks you choose to listen to. That is not “everyone”. Two of the poll aggregators whom I cited, who have stellar track records over the last 4 elections, disagree with you. I’m still going with the Nate Silver prediction.

    #776264

    JV
    Member

    I’m still unclear on your answer. So you’re saying that you do think there is the same energy for Obama then?

    As evidenced by what? All the people waving signs on the street corners and fainting at his speeches?

    If you believe that then it makes sense to believe those polls. If you don’t believe that then you are just fooling yourself…for now anyway. Tuesday may be a rough day for ya.

    #776265

    elikapeka
    Participant

    Obama 305 – Romney 233

    It seems to me that there are too many polls showing enough of an edge for Obama for Romney to overcome, though it’s possible.

    Whoever wins, I hope it’s by a decisive enough margin that we don’t go through recounts and court cases like 2000 – that will insure that nothing but fighting goes on for the next four years, as whoever is on the losing side will most likely not go quietly.

    If Obama wins, I hope he puts a little more effort into establishing the personal relationships with Congress that get deals made.

    If Romney wins, I hope he remembers that his support increased when he started to moderate his positions, not when he was pandering to the tea party faction.

    And I hope Congress members all recognize that this obstructionist and ideological instransigence has gotten us nowhere. Every single one of them was elected by their constitutents, and as such, deserves some respect. Everybody has to give and get something to start moving forward again.

    We’ll see.

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