Just curious what you all think right now about the real estate market.
Obviously it is going down, but do you think it is at the lowest and about to go back up? Or do you think it will continue to go down?
I know that it is impossible to predict the future (especially real estate), but I do know that a lot of you have lived here for awhile and may be able to shed some light on the topic.
Please share your thoughts.
charlabob
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I don\'t think it\'s at the bottom -- I do think it\'s a great time to make deals with sellers; in this area, reality hasn\'t sunk in in -- sellers aren\'t (yet) setting realistic prices. They will and buyers can encourage them. :-)
Gina
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I think it is going to level out for about 2 or 3 years, and then take off again in 2011.
beachdrivegirl
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It depends on where you are looking. There was actually an article in the paper on Sunday that explained how although most of the PNW was down King County\'s median sale price actually rose from $407,000 to $410,000 this past year. I think this is due in part becuase people that were looking farther away from the city in the past are able to negotiate homes closer to the city lately. I do think that it is an excellent time to negotiate right now considering how much longer homes are staying on the market for.
if it mirrors the Portland market at all.. it hasn\'t hit bottom yet.. maybe another year...
at least i am hoping.
Seattle Times seems to talk about this almost daily. Today\'s link:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2004394651_homesales06.html
I follow the values on Zillow, which is definitely not a total authority. However, their methodology on my property would be consistent. The value dipped in Nov/Dec, but since January has been climbing again. Take that for whatever it\'s worth.
NewRes, are you thinking of becoming PermanentResident?
I would have to disagree with the assessment that value is up in Seattle, or had gone down but is now up again (I am someone who has been watching real estate for about 3 months now)
What I have seen is homes on the market for up to 3 months and reducing their prices.
My query is, will it go down further (like Phoenix and Vegas)? Or is now the time to buy?
Are you selling your home? Have you been trying to? The homes for sale/buyer ratio is completely out of whack. There are (estimated) 45 homes in Seattle per each buyer. Looks like a buyers market!!! Will it continue?
TheHouse
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The Seattle Chamber of Commerce states that 1.5 million people are projected to move to the Puget Sound area by 2011. Barring any climactic issues (earthquake, tsunami, volcano eruption), Seattle should continue to be a city that attracts business. There will always be a demand to live in the city and since you have limited growth potential North,East and West, your investment is most likely going to retain its value. You also have to consider that we\'re still one of the least expensive places to live on the West Coast!
Vive Seattle!
I\'ve been watching/reading SeattleBubble.com for maybe a year now, and have found it to be impressively accurate.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/05/05/nwmls-stats-still-looking-for-the-bottom/
celeste17
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There is a house across the street from me that has been on the market since christmas. It is now May and still has not sold. I went on the realtors web site the other day to see what they are listing it as and I could not find it. The one that is down a few doors was on that web site and anotber. If I was this couple (they have moved to another area of WS) I would fire this realtor and hire another one that would properly market this house. Its new construction about 3 years old and the owners did a lot of improvements to the inside and out. I know that there have been alot of people looking at the house but no buyer.
charlabob
Member Profile
Value = what someone will pay you. The value of my house may be <foo> but that means nada, nothing, until someone gives me the money. That\'s what I meant about reality not quite reaching sellers here yet.
Since I\'m not interested in selling, I can smugly follow Zillow and say, \"There, that\'s not so bad.\" :-)
I\'ve been a WS resident for too many years to mention. Be it said that my parents bought this house in 1935 for $2,500 and had to take a 6 year mortgage to manage it. When my parents passed away and I moved back in it\'s value had multiplied 20 times. Today Zillow claims it to be valued 10 times more than that. The only difference it has made to me is that the property tax has also been going up with the estimated value.
With all of the houses on the market today, it\'s hard to believe that property values will be leveling or going up anytime soon. Rather I believe that we\'ve seen only the tip of the iceburg as the bubble bursts. Okay for us who own our own houses and don\'t intend to sell. One can always hope that taxes would follow in the decline (I\'m a dreamer too).
In a more local view, the big question is whether the Spokane St. Viaduct and Alaskan Way Viaduct work (scheduled to mess up the traffic out of our favorite neighborhood for the better part of a decade) will depress home prices in W Seattle.
Assume that the Puget Sound region hits bottom in a year or two and is recovered by 2010-2011. West Seattle will be dealing with a big traffic mess about then. Will we lag the rest of the region? Will we have a lower bottom?
huindekmi - That\'s a great point. Maybe, as a buyer, we should wait until that Viaduct work gets under way before we start looking to buy.
Thanks for all the input, everyone. And, like RonM said, if you currently own and don\'t intend to sell, you will see the value of your house continue to escalate over time. That\'s amazing to think his parents bought their house for 2 grand!!! Weird to think what our grandchildren will think of what we are paying now.
In my humble opinion the viaduct work will have no effect on property values here. For decades most of us prayed for better access to downtown and at first the new bridge was a welcome relief. Now we find that it had become only an excuse to rezone private residences and we\'re becoming a mass of high-rise and box-car like condos. Viaduct work may slow the traffic, but the rezoning stays. I wouldn\'t expect property values in WS to behave any differently than in the rest of the city (or state for that matter).
Well, when the commute to downtown is less convenient and becomes (I\'m assuming) what will be a nightmare for downtown commuters, it could be used as a negotiating tool.
The market still has a ways to correct, and it will probably be at least another two years before properties are realistically priced. Now is not a good time to buy unless you have a very motivated seller who will accept your offer that is based on <u>rental</u> comps, not sales comps. And unless the house was purchased by the current owner before about 2003, it will likely be a \"short sale.\" Sales comps are completely worthless until all the resets, REO\'s and foreclosures have worked through the system. This will take years.
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Zillow might be nice for a \"feel good\" value for the buyer, but its valuations are pure fantasy land right now. Do a sale history and you\'ll see what I mean. I\'m sorry, but your tudor isn\'t really worth double what it was in 2005.
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Any loss of use of the viaduct would have a severe negative impact on property values in WS. When the old WS bridge (before the current high-rise was built) was broken in the 80\'s, sale prices for WS homes dropped about 20 - 25% compared to like properties elsewhere.
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My advice is to rent and save money for a down payment, then look again in a couple of years. Otherwise, you\'re likely to lose the value of your down payment as the value of your newly acquired house declines.
PSPS - Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts. And I\'m happy to report that, what you advised, is exactly what we are doing!
PSPS -- just curious, since you speak so authoritatively... are you a real estate professional, or just someone who has followed the market closely? (No judgment either way, but it does affect how I \"read\" your take on the market.)
I\'m assuming he/she is in the business or follows it extremely closely.
It\'s funny, though, if you ask a current home owner (I realize not all of them, but a lot) about their home value, they will argue all day about how their home has not lost any value in the recent slump.
My best friend in Phoenix is convinced that he has made hundreds of thousands of dollars on his home which he bought about 2 years ago. And if you look at the WORST markets, Phoenix is about 1 or 2 of the worst hit.
I don\'t think home owners want to face the reality that their home is possibly worth less than what they bought it for a couple years ago. It\'s an ugly fact. However, as many have stated, if you plan on staying in your home for awhile, it will go back up.
NR, we bought 9 years ago and don\'t plan on moving unless something unforeseen happens. When I talk about my own home\'s value, it\'s strictly for entertainment. I don\'t have any illusions of grandeur. We bought a *starter/fixer* home because it was all we could afford, but it\'s also all we want. Don\'t need bigger and better for 2 people.
If anything, I probably undervalue my home because I see all the things it needs. And If I did have to sell, I\'m in it for just what\'s fair on both ends. It bothers me that people have gotten so greedy and refuse to be reasonable about the actual worth of their property. Someone on my block right now is trying to make a 200,000 profit after owning for 5 months. Another house thought they could be a flipper too, and it\'s been for sale for almost 2 years. Bank took it back and now it just sits there.
As for your situation, I think you have a pretty good feel for the market and true values. In your situation I would keep looking and saving. Obviously don\'t look at these rip off deals. But if something is priced decently and you love it, you can afford to lose a little value in the short run. If your rent is 1500 for example, that\'s 36,000 in 2 years going no where. As long as the value drops less than that on a purchased home, you would still be ahead.
My point being, it sounds like you have the time to be patient and make a deal in your favor. At the same time, don\'t miss out on something that you like if it\'s priced right and you plan on sticking around. You will eventually recoup any loss.
I am afraid we are also doing the waiting game...
let\'s face it.. 10% on a minimum investment of $350,000 right now in West Seattle is a significant chunk of change... and i believe it will fall at least that much.
it was more in Portland and they also have all the positives for their economy that we have had in ours...
Not carrying a mtg will kill us in taxes this next year.. but we can afford the differential for quite a while if the housing market drops... and we make a better buy.
We bought in Minnesota.. and we bought relatively smart in an area that was steadily increasing in value... until the bridge collapsed just as we put the house up for sale.
Needless to say.. we felt lucky to get out with just a moderate loss... We only lost what we had gained with the last two houses:(
I think we will be taking some time and watching the market closely for a while.
JT - Thanks for that insight. We did find a house to buy (I was calling it \"our house\", that\'s how much in love with it I was), and in the time it took my commitment-phobic man to decide whether to buy it or not (about 3 months), it had dropped in price by almost 200,000.
We went by the other day and they had just received an offer (they were about to foreclose on it). I\'m still nursing my broken heart.
And, come on, I would love to have a get-together! I would promise to never mention her name (it could be like from Harry Potter, the one who\'s name is never mentioned).
charlabob
Member Profile
The offer can always fall through. Then you have to decide if the motivated seller will give you a better deal or the foreclosure sale will give you a better deal. These are the true bargains, when waiting doesn\'t make sense.
Now, more than before, getting preapproved for mortgages is critical. People with excellent credit ratings are having trouble getting mortgages -- so if you have preapproval, you\'re even more a catch -- only thing better is cash. (If you have cash, come see me -- we can talk :-)
A lot of your attitude depends on how long you plan to stay in a place. I don\'t know which way the market is going. I buy lots of things that are going down in price because I need them or, at least, want them now. For example, home computers are getting better and cheaper every year but I\'m not waiting for a \"bottom.\" We bought our house 20 years ago for around $150K. It\'s probably worth 4x as much now. Maybe I could have held out for $145K, but it all seems sort of beside the point over the long haul. If you plan to live around here for a long time, it makes sense to buy in. It seems to me that more and more people will want to live around here.
I bought a house as a retirement investment, and (Jan, I\'m on your side), hehe, I\'m believing I have to wait a few years longer to retire.
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