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Run hard Ron Paul.. go for it.

Started 5 months ago by kootchman
Latest reply from kootchman

kootchman
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Watching MSNBC... the hope and a prayer channel... and they were speculating/hoping a strong Ron Paul showing would lead to a third party candidate. Y'know the old divide and conquer... my brother sent me a link... I never knew this... WOW... what a windfall this would be for the Republicans if Plan A doesn't work. Must have been asleep in this civics class. A president by vote of the House... not the electoral college. Run Ron, Run... the independents love ya!!! Better yet, c'mon Hilary ya old war horse..ya got another one in ya!!

A majority of the members of the Electoral College (currently 270 out of 538) is required in order for a president and vice president to be elected. If no candidate for president receives a majority of electoral votes, the House elects, on a state-by-state basis, a president from the top three electoral vote-getters. This requirement proved fatal to Andrew Jackson's candidacy in the 1824 election; while Jackson received the most electoral votes, John Quincy Adams, who came in second in the Electoral College, was elected president by the House.

Woulldn't this make Gore/Florida look like a traffic infraction?

Posted 5 months ago #
DBP
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Why do you think Ron Paul would be a windfall for Republicans? He'd draw more votes away from the Republicans than from Democrats. He'd probably draw away most of the Tea Party vote.

The "independent" label doesn't mean that much. In most cases, it just means "undecided as of right now." The vast majority of so-called independents will still go with a Republican or Democrat in the Presidential race.

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
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The Independents love him..(Paul). he polls best with them. The core Democrats are going to vote Obama..irregardless of his dismal record... the core Republicans will do likewise.... if you recall the Ross Perot race.. he received 19% of the popular vote. .
" In a new Public Policy Poll, 2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul bests President Obama 48 to 39 percent among independent voters"

In some states... not all, popular vote takes ALL the electoral votes. But interestingly, there is no law that says this has to be so. Some states, will allocate their electoral votes according to the popular vote. And some states...the electoral college is under no obligation whatsoever. The are free to vote their "conscience"... no matter what the popular vote says.

They are not staying with the parties...they are in fact migrating in their own right. T
Quote;

"It appears that independents were elected to state legislators in 2010 in Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Vermont. We are still waiting to see if one was elected in Colorado."

This is a very distressing Democratic circumstance. One, the core liberal base has been dissed by Obama. Two, he gutted his standing with moderate democrats, and independents with centrist leanings. Republican voter however are staying with their home team. ..they are in the "anyone but Obama mode".. The status of "Independent" is in large measure coming from the Democratic hide... more self described independents are conversions from the Democratic Party. More Democrats are leaving party affiliation than republicans

this is a good overview...Obama's fortunes with Independents has been dropping like a stone. The more he leans to his base, the less appealing he is to Independents.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/82404092/

Republicans in the main are a pretty disciplined party... they deliver the votes. There is lage cultural centrist core of Democrats that have been totally marginalized

"But when it comes to the ever crucial bloc of independent voters, Romney trumps Obama by a 12-point margin – 53 percent to 41 percent. Independents in 2012 could be especially critical in tipping the scales in such battleground states as Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, all of which went for Obama last time around but have since been deemed toss-ups."

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
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With the new apportionment, red states were the net gainers of electoral votes. If the polls are right, Obama 48, Republicans 47 (Romney leading Obama) All it would take is one or two states to go Independent, or, a an electoral assignment by popular vote to equal 2% ...it's a thin line. The presidential election would go to the current house of representatives... where the majority would decide the election. Not that it will happen..but it would be historic. 37.2 are self proclaimed democrats. 31.5 republican...meaning almost 1/3 of the electorate is neither. Dems are on the wrong side of every issue the overal electorate supports... and continue to press the liberal agenda.

Obamas hurdle: While he is suing states for immigration, suring states for voter ID cards, pushing forward with Obamacare, These are Dec Rasmussen poll lead-ins

55% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law
69% Say Federal Government Lacks Authority To Force Purchase of Health Insurance
23% Say U.S. Economy Is Getting Better These Days, 49% Say Worse
43% Say 99 Weeks of Benefits Increase The Unemployment Problem
60% Favor Considering Spending Cuts in Every Government Program
50% Favor Mix of Cuts, Taxes To Reduce Deficit, But 64% Oppose Paying Higher Taxes
60% Think Federal Government Encourages Illegal Immigration
63% Favor Immigration Checks On All Routine Traffic Stops
54% Still See Bailouts As Bad for the Country
52% favor passage of an immigration law similar to Arizona’s in their state. Thirty-four percent (34%) oppose such a law in their state.
Here's a shocker...despite blame Bush, blame Bush...
45% trust republicans to manage the economy, democrats 35%

It could happen... the magin between Dems and Repubs is thin..a very small percentage of defectors could force a House election... and we know those numbers! It would be a great civics lesson dontcha think?

Posted 5 months ago #
DBP
Member Profile

if you recall the Ross Perot race.. he received 19% of the popular vote. . .

Yeah. I also recall Perot causing the Republicans to lose a Presidential election. Ron Paul would do the same thing for the Republicans in this election. Most of the independents who vote for him would have voted Republican or would've not voted.

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
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They did. What is different this time is the increase in the absolute number of independents. Remember under this scenario... the republican nominee CAN lose the electoral and the popular vote... as long as the 3rd party candidate denies an electoral majority to Obama... republicans win. Perot was a republican overthrow of the moderate republican party who compromised on tax and fiscal discipline. Obama has to get a 50% share of the electoral college...if not the republican house gets to elect the president. What is very very different...is Perot did not appeal to independents or democrats.as you correctly point out, he was the first de facto TEA party candidate.. Ron Paul does have greater appeal to blue dog democrats and independents than Perot did.

Posted 5 months ago #
dobro
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It's Obama vs Romney, no third party bid, Obama blows him out in the biggest smackdown since Reagan-Mondale. Ron Paul is not a factor. You heard it here first.

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
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OK... I admit the possibility is remote.. but it would be exciting to see a house of representative election. The numbers aren't trending Obama... independents call this election. The die hards of both parties just have to do their regular call of duty...no major shifts... FYI... Colorado in the mid-terms did a 27 per cent shift for Republicans. Amazingly, independents still poll favoring republicans better able to solve the economy .. and that, also it their largest concern. The tune-up is starting. After the primary is over...the record of the last three years goes on the big board...the old "are you better off than you were three years ago" Bet ya a new set of strings Obama does not get a second term. Medium lights please...

Posted 5 months ago #
JanS
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and then, just to make things interesting, there is this...and they are now on the ballot in 12 states...

http://www.americanselect.org/?gclid=CNXM9-qWla0CFQ5lhwodV2YG4w

esp. this interesting page from that link:

http://www.americanselect.org/candidates

Posted 5 months ago #
metrognome
Member Profile

as long as the Republicans keep holding televised debates, Obama will win in a landslide ...

Third party candidates usually cause the main party candidate nearest their political belief system, who would otherwise have won, to lose because they split the vote. Happened with Perot and Nader.

Posted 5 months ago #
redblack
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and, arguably, jon anderson.

anyone else remember him?

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
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The assumption you make, not borne out by the pollls, is that the independents identify with republicans and republican orthodoxy. They don't. They are a decided swing vote, and they have gone strongly for and strongly against Obama. They put him in the White House, and took him out in the mid-terms. Polls show it is Independents that are most likely to vote for an independent third party candidate. Now, if Bachmann, Santorum etc.. ran.. that would hurt. That would be akin to the Ralph Nadar debacle..pulling the extreme idealogues. I don't think republicans would do it...we just want Obama gone..and we will swallow a lot of bile to make sure that happens. Remember... with the less than 2-3 per cent margin that seperates the two parties... all a third party candidate has to do is deny Obama a 50% electoral college.majority for the House republicans to decide. C'mon..admit it.. it would be political entertainment at the highest level. God, I wish Hilary would haar the muse... run Hilary, run! But Ron Paul would do the same, albeit with a little more tension and nail biting. Obama getting 49% or less is all we need. BTY .. as the electoral college and state polls show... Obama loses if one non apportioned swing state goes independent. Geez redblack... can labor come up with a Labor Party candidate in say.... Wisconsin? Ohio? VA? PA? These televised debates are for the "core constituents" metrognome... once the charade is over..the full machine goes into populist appeal. The money machine takes over. Problem Obama has...I think...is he is campaigning strictly to his " left out" base..and that won't get the votes for the general election, and he has a record to defend. He has to attract the independent votes and they are dumping him in droves. Are you better off now than you were three years ago? Do you want another four years of the same? May not happen...but it is not impossible and this is not the same as Perot or Anderson... Independents are almost 25%of the vote now. The base won't carry either party.

Posted 5 months ago #
redblack
Member Profile

Do you want another four years of the same?

i sure as hell don't want any more laissez-faire economics or republican gutting of regulations.

then again, i'm a little tired of your whining.

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

Rest easy dude... I merely started a thread with an intriguing possibility... one that hasen't happened in over 150 years... and is now possible.. I do many things...whine ain't one of em... looking a little grim is it?

Posted 5 months ago #
redblack
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grim? for republicans? it never looked good.

Posted 5 months ago #
waynster
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After this week with the pay roll tax the demise of the tea party has started the wrecking ball has swung... all the GOP candidates side stepping the issue the true colers come out just how much they care about the middle class worker including Ron Paul whole milk and all.....

Posted 5 months ago #
sydney
Member Profile

The people want to keep the civil rights gained in the 20th century; they don't want another war; they want the filthy robber baron types reined in; they want some relief and jobs. Therefore, they don't want a Republican presidency, and in order to prevent that they must vote in a bloc and therefore will vote for Obama, since there is little chance anyone more progressive will be allowed to run against him.

How unfortunate.

Posted 5 months ago #
JoB
Member Profile

bubble bubble toil and trouble

oh wait! that's the wrong holiday
isn't it?

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

Ha ha ha ha... let's see about this "tax holiday"... first, it's YOUR SS fund that is not being funded. Your benefits. Disability, retirement, survivor benefits. Already stressed and under actuarial impossibility. Great remedy... short pay it more so future congresses will have to cut the benefits. Right? Noooo, not our congress. We are going to pile it on the younger generations as we have been doing for the last forty years.

Waynster..I believe you could be their poster child.. they just skinned you...dropping a 38 billion tax hike on ya while telling you you have a tax break. And you can't wait to spread the news of your good fortune...for 10 years at least, probably 20... and you like it! Republican sadism trumped by Democratic masochism... not enough pain the last 3 years? I will say it is a bi-partisan fleecing this time. How big is this hit? For the average 1,100 "temporary tax cut" which hasn't moved the economy one bit the last year... you got set up for.. $4.000 increased cost for your home loans, assum a 200K home...now, Seattle is a bit over 340K... so you young folks.. with an average of 24,000 in college debt burden...you are now going to pay the feds an additional $ 6,500 to buy a home... GREAT TRADE off eh?

Let's call it what it really is.. a national sales tax on home sales... and you are all going for it!!!! Now, if you are in the top 1%...it ain't diddly squat...but you Occupiers? It's your carcass to skin.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/BGOVALL-BGOVFINAN-BGOVTAX-BNALL/2011/12/21/id/421708

Back to the biggest cookie jar in the Democratic arsenal... Fannie and Freddie AGAIN... it just gets more and more incredulous... for every year of short paying the SS trust fund.. they are slapping additional underwriting fees on home loans for 10 years.. yep.. all you young families, new home owners... you are going to cough up 32-38 billion per year for the next ten years, 20 years if it gets extended another year to cover the SS shortfall. We, the boomers thank-you for your inattention and the diversions such as Occupy that keep your eye on $30 per week for one year...while you get fiscally skinned and ignore once again the depths of the intrigue. A new side line revenue stream ... now watch the FHLA fees creep up and up and up over the next twenty years ... you will rue the day... and those taxes and increased underwriting fees? Straight from the old 99% pockets. Congress thinks we are too stupid to go past the sound bites..are they right? Kick the can down the road..and kick the taxpaying ass of every young couple, family, individual, who is going to get a home mortgage for the next 20 years.

Posted 5 months ago #
JanS
Member Profile

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/24/opinion/nocera-the-big-lie.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha212

yes, it's the NYT...I'm sure someone will have something to say about that ;-)

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

I do of course. .. it now moves past "he thinks, she thinks" we are in court, 6 former executives, are in court, being prosecuted. What we think, what we believe, is now in evidentiary discovery..and we will hear the sworn testimony of the participants. That beats the editorial page every time. Don't follow it though... so far, F n" F executives HAVE admitted they hid the extent of sub primes and the degree of exposure.... but Jeeez Jan... just on the face of it.. they are in federal receivership...that didn't get ya a little suspicious? They went broke.. kaput, couldn't cover their losses... bankrupt... all these words mean a thing to ya? I for one am delighted they are in court... albeit civil... they should be in criminal court.. but that may happen yet... at some point the stench becomes overwhelming. We will get the full story.. grudgingly or with a new AG.

Posted 5 months ago #
JanS
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yes, I'm sure we will...hope it's not up to interpretation by the masses :)

Posted 5 months ago #
JoB
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kootch..

ya'll have a merry christmas now

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

I did. New books,...

Posted 5 months ago #
charlabob
Member Profile

Which books' K.

???

I suspect you and I have some overlap :-)

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

A Slobbering Love Affair, My Grandfather's Son, Crimes Against Liberty, The Great Money Binge, Dictatorship to Democracy, and a how to guide to convert a Ruger .22 to full automatic. Yo ho ho

Posted 5 months ago #
JoB
Member Profile

a how to guide to convert a ruger 22 to a full automatic?

can't say that i have ever had a need for that one

Posted 5 months ago #
JanS
Member Profile

to each his own, huh, JoB...lol...

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

It's for fun.... without raising the ire of ATF..(it's reversible) ..c'mon ladies, you'd love it...it's all about balance... a little Gene Sharp reading and a gun how-to booklet. Sorta ying yang ... a life in balance..

Posted 5 months ago #
JoB
Member Profile

i have been known to read chiltons...
of course, i owned the car that went with it ;)

Posted 5 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

pssst... your fire and outrage sydney are admirable... however... our country has been at declared war more often under Democratic presidents and congresses than republicans... ooops more facts!! We are STILL in Clinton's war... Bosnia. Well, I suppose we have been at war since FDR... perpetually. But that would still mean under democratic controlled congresses.

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

Let's see.. time t start counting... I am sick of a gridlocked House and Senate. We need the Senate too.

As it now stands: 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 2 Independents

Democrats will have to defend 21 seats
Republican will have to defend 10 seats

7 Democratic Senators have announced their retirement.

At last congressional gridlock is gone.

Posted 4 months ago #
JoB
Member Profile

kootch..
so sorry the raping and pillaging can't begin till after the election...
that is if republicans win the election

Posted 4 months ago #
redblack
Member Profile

Ha ha ha ha... let's see about this "tax holiday"... first, it's YOUR SS fund that is not being funded. Your benefits. Disability, retirement, survivor benefits.

as if you or any other conservative gives a flying crap about funding the social safety net. that's not why they voted agin' it. they voted agin' it 'cause democrats sponsored it.

if the "tea party" had any altruism, they would have stuck to their grover norquist pledges and voted for the tax holiday.

damn it, i'm the one who should be outraged at the notion of not funding social security. and now the magnanimous, sycophantic, narcissistic teabaggers are feigning some kind of altruism regarding social security? pikers. crooks. liars.

congress. bleh. whatever.

obama still has veto power - and he will through 2016 - and there's no way republicans will win any kind of super majority to override a veto.

want to get rid of gridlock?

get the money out.

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

Well.. redblack..you have a point. Except.. SS wasn't conceived as a tax was it? It was conceived to be an annuity, albeit a forced one. But, since it morphed into a major source of income for the general fund, it is an annuity in founding concept only. It's another vital revenue stream for an overspending federal government. The TEA party, while you would like to believe otherwise, are the broadest cross demographic populist movement today. They sorta got pissed at the extravagance of government. SS is as much a part of their retirement as yours. Funny, when they restore the deduction, you will still have the national sales tax on mortgages... they do ya twice.

You mean Obama would be an obstructionist? Not cooperate with a congressional majority? We don't care. Gridlock works for us. Ya can't spend what congress doesn't authorize. Control of the Senate means... all business brought before the Senate has to be approved by the Senate majority leader. If not, it dies in committee never to see the light of day, Oh he will fold like a cheap suit.... you don't still think he is your vanguard defender do you? You should start watching Cenk Uygar on MSNBC... even he doubts the strength of The Messiah. You know our mantra..government which governs least, governs best. Gridlock does that. If ya can't kill the beast, paralyze it.

Want to get the money out? Flat tax. That my friend is where the lobby many starts.. exceptions to a tax code.

Posted 4 months ago #
JanS
Member Profile

one more time...Cenk Uygar is NOT on MSNBC. He hasn't been since last summer. He was let go, and is now on Current TV. Obviously, you haven't watched him lately, or you would know that.

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

I just watched him this morning... on cable. Maybe MSNBC has so few viewers the cable seller had to fill the channel time. Fact I watched him suggest Obama was such a "weenie" Democrats shouldn't vote for him.

Posted 4 months ago #
JanS
Member Profile

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cenk_Uygur

from July, 2011

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/21/cenk-uygur-msnbc-leaving_n_905415.html

so you may have watched him, but not on MSNBC..

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

right u r .... he' on with Keith Obersturmführer.

Posted 4 months ago #
JanS
Member Profile

lol..was that difficult to do?

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

see redblack...you make my point... whatever the intention, we are trying to save your SS system and wadda ya do? Bitch about it. SS was not supposed to be for the middle class ... it was for the working poor... the middle class used to be able to take care of itself.. or was supposed to. Oh well... I am going to "retire" the first damn day I am eligible... that's MY play dough they are screwing with... gas money for the boat and fishing license. The rest is pledged to West 5, Tractor Tavern, and Las Vegas 2X a year. Bastards!

Posted 4 months ago #
redblack
Member Profile

you want to save social security? quit allowing politicians to use the trust fund to fill budget gaps. the trust fund is running a surplus, and will for another couple of decades if we quit tinkering with it and using it as a piggy bank.

greenspan started that crap in order to make deficit spending work without collapsing the entire system, and it needs to stop.

al gore was right: put it in a lock box.

and why can't the middle class take care of itself, kootch? do some research on the historic trend of wages versus the cost of everything. meanwhile, tax burdens have gone down. can't blame the government for that one. that's all private sector mischief. and you're helping them.

again, the top 1% is winning.

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

They are taxed to death... remember, real wages are calculated AFTER the tax burden. Government spending is rising faster than the private sector can create the wealth. It really is that simple my friend. Uh huh... that lock box was picked before the money got in... stop spending so much that they have to stick their paws into it... novel idea eh!!?? . Cost of parking, cost of traffic tickets, registrations, property taxes. rent, food etc.. and now paper bags... it all adds up. Throw in some inflationary stimulus... and poof... your dollars are devalued.. but government revenue goes up. It's like the 9 hr minimum wage... the state just wants more sales taxes... they don't give a shit about a "just wage"... WA state hires on average 3 less people in the average restaurant than the national average. Used to be I paid 15 gratuity for lunch.. 20 per cent for dinner, 25 if a sommelier got involved... not now.. 10% and 15% max...think real wages are going up? I usually tip a buck for coffee... let's see what the new prices are eh? If my double latte hits $2.50.... because the coffee shop has to raise prices... .50 but the state will do well won't they? That's how it works..? C;mon...you should know that better than anyone..unions killed off their employers by "over taxing them" with pensions, benefits, etc.. that's why you are down to less than 8 per cent of the work force, and if you lost the federal government prevailing wages clause... membership will fall to zero. Killing the golden goose never had worked...that's why there is a parable about it. Thats why we dumped the state liquor franchise... they taxed too much and the public got sick of it.

Posted 4 months ago #
redblack
Member Profile

heh. i always tip 20%, less if the service is lousy, more if it's great. a buck for a barista - minimum. 'cause if i can afford to buy prepared food and drinks, i know that the establishment has to pay for the drink or meal and the people who serve and deliver it. but tips are part of their declared income.

in short, if prices go up, my tip goes up because of the human cost. it ain't just about me.

which brings me back to income, before and after taxes. my rates dropped under bush and they haven't been raised, and FICA has gone down under obama. my wages have dropped due to a sluggish construction market. (but thankfully, through hard work and a good work ethic, i still have a job. millions of other people aren't so... fortunate?) after taxes, my prices are skyrocketing. cable is up, food prices are up. phone. internet. a mortgage in an expensive market. insurance.

without two incomes, it's impossible to keep up with what the market will bear and have a decent lifestyle. again, that ain't the government's fault.

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

cable is up because your city raised their franchise fee... food prices are up because they printed trillions in funny money and that is the effect of inflation... when the dollar is devalued, all cmomodity prices are traded as a dollar denominated events,.. the cheaper the value of the dollar, the more a commodity price rises. Simple old economics. Inflating currency as has been stated is what bannana republics do... print more to pay less. It never lasts though.. redblack that was predictable. And it is also what will kil your SS purchasing power. Yea, imagine that. Sorry at $9.00 per hour, the owner has to raise prices. I am interested in the total cost to me... not how it was allocated. Now the owner, they need the revenue to cover the higher employee costs, so they raise prices. Price elasticity my friend. Demand falls when prices rise and for a completely discretionary event, coffee, meals out, etc... those are the least elastic goods or services. Your food prices are going to go even higher. The idea is not make low skill wages attractive... it's the incentive to get better training, better schooling, Those are "just getting started jobs".... why subsidize them?

Posted 4 months ago #
kootchman
Member Profile

cable is up because your city raised their franchise fee... food prices are up because they printed trillions in funny money and that is the effect of inflation... when the dollar is devalued, all cmomodity prices are traded as a dollar denominated events,.. the cheaper the value of the dollar, the more a commodity price rises. Simple old economics. Inflating currency as has been stated is what bannana republics do... print more to pay less. It never lasts though.. redblack that was predictable. And it is also what will kil your SS purchasing power. Yea, imagine that. Sorry at $9.00 per hour, the owner has to raise prices. I am interested in the total cost to me... not how it was allocated. Now the owner, they need the revenue to cover the higher employee costs, so they raise prices. Price elasticity my friend. Demand falls when prices rise and for a completely discretionary event, coffee, meals out, etc... those are the least elastic goods or services. Your food prices are going to go even higher. The idea is not make low skill wages attractive... it's the incentive to get better training, better schooling, Those are "just getting started jobs".... why subsidize them? Would the owner rather have me tip 50 cents and do my daily two trips.. or go once or alternate days? Simple... keep the customer coming in the door to meet that overhead...now let's assume a good barrista can shuck 30 customers an hour... if the higher costs of coffee mean 10 customers decide to economize... that's $10 per hour out the window.. or if the tips are lower,say .50... that's $15 per hour in lost wages.... if all 30 customers tip ,50. Add the mayors new paid sick leave... the what do you do? A small shop with two full time employees will probably hire three parttimers so there is coverage on sick days... AND raise prices...or skirt the issue of sick leave entirely and go with less than 20 hour work weeks... and finally, worse... just close the doors..the return on the effort doesn't justify it. It also closes the gateway jobs... where unemployment is the highest... teens. Why do they continue to think they are better managers of businesses? They aren't and never will be. Cubicle people pretending they know how to run a business.. absurd.

Posted 4 months ago #

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