Good luck! No prizes, sorry!
This is a good tool:
I'm going to go with Nate Silver at 538.com. He has a stellar record over the last 4 elections. He has Obama at 303 and Romney at 234.
That guy is pretty darn smart - also intrade has it 67/33 Obama - and they have a good record as well.
My theory is that they are assuming 2008 party turnout percentages in these polls and it will be very different come Tuesday.
We shall see!
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
DENVER — A University of Colorado economic model that has correctly predicted the last eight presidential elections shows Mitt Romney emerging as the victor in 2012.
So far.. there are 220,00 fewer early Democratic voters than 08'...there are 47,000 MORE Republican early voters than 08'... in Ohio. Right you are Smitty.
We will see.
Unfortunately, it looks like Mitt's dog will be back to riding on top of the Rambler American. No Air Force One. Sorry, pooch.
Better than being served with chianti and a side of fava beans!
That would be "beans". So..are you condemning all Indonesians because they consider dog a "delicacy"? I'm sure they think some of our eating habits are strange, too..
I would never condemn anyone for traditions - just not certain I would partake - especially after being raised on spam and pineapple. That's just me.
What is your guess on the electoral?
I have no idea as to how the electoral will go. I think that this vote is going to be close, both popular and electoral....I really don't see one or the other trouncing their opponent...and I certainly don't see Romney winning by the huge numbers mentioned above. I think that's wishful thinking :)
Let's just hope we don't end up at 269/269. It is very plausible.
That's not gonna happen. Just more horse race media hype. There will be a winner.
Here's what Nate Silver says today about "informing" vs "entertaining"...
"...Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."
"If the state polls are right"
And, *that* is the key.
Right wingers (like myself!) are banking on the fact that the polls are weighted to reflect the voting turnout of 2008. If the D/R/I weighting per State do match 2008 then this thing is over. I contend that the enthusiasm Obama had in 2008 has waned.
Unskwewedpolls.com (right wing) takes the polls and weights them based on the actual respondents D/R/I rather than re-weighting. We will find out real quick (Virginia) if these guys are on to something.
My fear is that if these guys are right - Romney wins by a large margin - and the voter fraud accusations will begin because everyone is so used to the re-weighted polls.
Time will tell.......don;t you love this stuff?
I do, actually. The people at the Princeton site I put up base all their projections on state polls only and have batted 98% in the last couple of elections. It's hard to imagine all of those polls suddenly becoming so wrong that the 19 of 20 swing state polls that Obama leads are just wrong. we'll know soon.
PS- It's usually the guys that are losing that complain the most about "skewed" polls.
Howdy neighbors, it's been a while! I wanted to check back in on the pre-election weekend madness! So let me get right into it:
Smitty/Dobro are talking about 2 different things because Smitty questions the methods and Dobro is citing (flawed) polls.
Dobro, the question is, do YOU believe there is anywhere near the enthusiasm for Obama today as there was in 2008? Everyone says NO, so why are the pollsters sampling using numbers based on the assumption that turnout will be the same? Because that's what they have always done. 2008 was a perfect storm for Obama and not to be used as the standard for pollsters.
Elections are all about turn out, and Obama voters are apathetic this time around, and independents are breaking to Romney in double digit numbers. Romney has huge crowds and all the momentum, good early voting, and so i predict Romney will win by 3-4 points, with 291 electoral votes. (or 311 if he gets PA)
JV...dobro didn't ask the pollsters to do what they do...who knows why? They both have huge crowds....and the only poll that counts is the one that happens on Tuesday. Unless you're psychic, you, and anyone else, have no idea how it will turn out..
We all understand that Jan, I'm just trying to explain to you why the method is flawed so you're ready on Tuesday. Either that makes sense or it doesn't. I don't think that method is credible this time and I explained why. Maybe you think the turnout for Obama will be the same as 2008? These pollsters do, and they are wrong.
I'm not psychic, but the weekend before the 2008 election we all knew what was going to happen. This year is no different except for the result.
I suspect 3 out of every 100 people will decide not to be fooled twice, and vote for Romney. That's a 6 point swing.
I agree dobro-it is like complaining about the refs after your team loses.
That said, I really do have a hard time thinking the turnout for Obama will equal what it was in 2008 like these polls are adjusted to reflect.
The truth is, they get paid to do this stuff, so they must k ow a heck of a lot more about it than we do.
We will know real quick Tuesday evening if Romney wins Virginia bigger than 1 percentage point.
From Ohio: " as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election."
"...do YOU believe there is anywhere near the enthusiasm for Obama today as there was in 2008? Everyone says NO..."
Here's the problem with that statement- everyone does not say no, only the folks you choose to listen to. That is not "everyone". Two of the poll aggregators whom I cited, who have stellar track records over the last 4 elections, disagree with you. I'm still going with the Nate Silver prediction.
I'm still unclear on your answer. So you're saying that you do think there is the same energy for Obama then?
As evidenced by what? All the people waving signs on the street corners and fainting at his speeches?
If you believe that then it makes sense to believe those polls. If you don't believe that then you are just fooling yourself...for now anyway. Tuesday may be a rough day for ya.
Obama 305 - Romney 233
It seems to me that there are too many polls showing enough of an edge for Obama for Romney to overcome, though it's possible.
Whoever wins, I hope it's by a decisive enough margin that we don't go through recounts and court cases like 2000 - that will insure that nothing but fighting goes on for the next four years, as whoever is on the losing side will most likely not go quietly.
If Obama wins, I hope he puts a little more effort into establishing the personal relationships with Congress that get deals made.
If Romney wins, I hope he remembers that his support increased when he started to moderate his positions, not when he was pandering to the tea party faction.
And I hope Congress members all recognize that this obstructionist and ideological instransigence has gotten us nowhere. Every single one of them was elected by their constitutents, and as such, deserves some respect. Everybody has to give and get something to start moving forward again.
"I'm still unclear on your answer..."
is my answer. The rest of your speculation on what "everyone" says isn't worth discussing.
Too complex for you?
"the question is, do YOU believe there is anywhere near the enthusiasm for Obama today as there was in 2008?"
I agree.. the enthusiasm for Obama isn't what it was in the last election...
but the lack of enthusiasm for Mitt's policies on the civil liberties of the women of this nation is substantial...
as is the lack of enthusiasm for Mitt in the African American population..
or the booming Latino population
or among the elderly who have a lot at stake in this election
The hope and change slogan may be a little battered right now...
but i wouldn't count on that to keep those who prefer a slightly tarnished Obama to the repercussions of a Mitt victory from the polls.
Thank you JoB, your first sentence addresses the crux of the matter. A lot of assumptions are made using bad numbers on the front end, which skew the results of the polls.
I'm not saying its intentional, that's how it's always done. But that model is wrong this time.
It is like establishing the high-tide mark at the peak of Superstom Sandy, then predicting another massive flood next time there is a high tide. 2008 was a super storm, 2012 is not.
If you think my first line confirms your hypothesis. you would have been better informed by reading the balance of what i had to say.
the polls traditionally under-count the demographic with the most reason to vote against Mitt.
the flood of voters who come out to oppose Mitt may well be as large or larger than that which came out so enthusiastically to elect Obama...
You have to watch out when projecting super-storms...
The backlash to Republican arrogance and the massive amounts of cash dumped into this election by business interests may well exceed the enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 ...
I personally hope it does. We might get some substantive change if enough voters tell the two parties with their vote that enough is enough ..
because enough is enough.
The enthusiasm "gap" is this, Obama supporters are disappointed, (sigh) Romney supporters are mad as hell ... which side would you pick to storm the castle?
I saw this sign in Virginia ... "When Obama called, the SEALS came, when the SEALS called, Obama fled. Benghazi.
That's not slightly tarnished. That's caked in rust.
Romney beats Obama - Univ of Colo .. 100% accurate last 8 presidential elections.
Cash is only bad when republicans raise it huh?
And I'm not predicting a super storm, I'm predicting a reasonable win for Romney of about 300 electoral votes, give or take 20.
Obama will probably still win Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, and maybe just maybe Pennsylvania. 253 is the max Obama will get.
So its NOT a super storm...I'd equate it more to the post storm American rescue and clean up effort.
"Too complex for you?"
No. Not very complex at all,in fact, just a right wing talking point that you heard "everyone" say. As I said, not worth discussing.
Well we can tell.. we know the demographics... we don't know who will vote.
The Obama defectors
Barring some kind of last-minute surge, President Obama is going to fall well shy of the 52.9 percent he won in the 2008 election. It might still be good enough to win, but it won’t be resounding.
Obama had 52.9 per cent last election. Ya think he can maintain that margin with his record? It only takes 3%... A slice here, a slice there.. the republican base stayed intact... and expanded.
I think the Ohio early voting swing between 2008 and 2012 is more than just a talking point. That said, Ohio may or may not reflect reality for the rest of the country. It also might not be enough to swing the election.
I think once FL and VA are called for Romney early the media may start to confirm the Obama enthusiasm gap between 08 and 12........
"Romney supporters are mad as hell ... which side would you pick to storm the castle? "
Women are mad as hell... they won't storm the castle but i am betting they will come out and vote
I just can't wait for this all to be over. Sick of all of it. The amount of money spent on this election should make us all pause and then throw up in disgust. The fact that two thirds of registered Republicans believe in Demonic possession while less than half believe humans are contributing to climate change, also pretty much sums up the sad state of the electorate in this country (http://www.salon.com/2012/11/02/poll_most_republicans_believe_in_demonic_possession/). Explains a lot if Romney wins...and not in a good way.
"Cash is only bad when republicans raise it huh?"
no.. cash is bad when people/businesses who don't even have to put their name behind their advertisements cans spend unlimited dollars on campaign ads on an election.
You guys whoop and holler about the vaguest possibility that foreign donors can't be adequately tracked on the Obama website...
but find it perfectly acceptable that organizations with no mandate to disclose their donors fund-raise outside of the United States?
It's bad when unlimited dollars can be spent on an election with no public accountability.
you might not want to count those eggs until they are in your basket.
And Job, I am mad as hell and most other women I know are equally fired up and won't allow these troglodytes to drag us backwards. There is not a Republican I can vote for this year because I am so angry. NO WAY. Stay out of our private lives. Stay out of our bedrooms. Stay out of our doctor's offices. Back off. I've HAD it up to here with their misogynistic hipocrisy!
"Romney beats Obama - Univ of Colo .. 100% accurate last 8 presidential elections."
LOL, willing to put your house on it?
They can't be wrong!!
(Vegas loves suckers like you)
Kayo and her friends sound pretty mad..
and they sound like they are going to do something about it..
i know my friends and I feel the same way
and we will vote for sure...
i know little old ladies who voted republican all of their lives who don't intend to make that mistake on Tuesday...
next time you ask a woman who she is going to vote for and you hear that hesitation..
remind yourself that if she is in any way dependent upon you for anything.. especially a tip...
she is likely taking a page out of Mitts book and telling you what you want to hear
women are good at it.
It's how we survived before we had rights.
"NO WAY. Stay out of our private lives. Stay out of our bedrooms. Stay out of our doctor's offices. Back off. I've HAD it up to here with their misogynistic hipocrisy!"
I have been hearing that since 1980. What exactly are you afraid will be done that the "troglodytes" have not been able to do since then?
Hey job, guess please? Just want all this talk on record, ya know! ;-)
Here you go Smitty:
Hate to rain on Smitty's parade, but there is no path to victory for Romney in the Electoral College, and there never had been. The fewest electoral votes Obama will get is 280.
"I have been hearing that since 1980. What exactly are you afraid will be done that the "troglodytes" have not been able to do since then?"
two generations of women mistakenly thought their equal rights had been fought for and won ...
they bought all of the excuses about why things weren't moving faster...
until your guys came out of their sexist closet and started saying really stupid stuff like women who don't behave appropriately deserve to be raped and rape is just another means of contraception and ...
Do you really think women are so browbeaten that they will sit back and says thanks for the opportunity to turn the clocks back.
As a woman i will tell you is that my assessment is that the same women who didn't want to be called feminists in the 80s are more than impatient now.. they are pissed off.
payback is a bitch.
I haven't entered the winner takes all it's a sporting match election game yet..
and i don't think i will now by giving you numbers.
There is simply too much at stake in this election to take it lightly.
""NO WAY. Stay out of our private lives. Stay out of our bedrooms. Stay out of our doctor's offices. Back off. I've HAD it up to here with their misogynistic hipocrisy!"
Stop inviting us in. When you put those issues up to the general public via tax dollars.. we are invited. Make it an issue between you and your private insurance company or doctor. The public purse is just that.. public.
H of R stays republican.
Looks like two more republican governors.
Senate, looks to stay democratic.. but we have a plan for that... right out of the Wisconsin playbook...... recall elections for democratic senators who managed to not hit this election cycle. Citizens United is far from over. Those PAC's still have wads of cash. Obama carried 28 states last election. Any Democratic Senator in a red state is going to be at risk.
Presidential race... up for grabs but Romney methinks gets the Big Chair...
Smitty/Dobro are talking about 2 different things because Smitty questions the methods and Dobro is citing (flawed) polls.
i, too, question the methods.
we're still talking about polls of voters with land lines, right?
nonetheless, smitty praises nate silver and his "poll of polls" analysis. i agree that nate silver is smart and good at what he does. so let's look at his web site:
he gives pennsylvania a 3.7% chance of going to romney and a 15% of ohio going to romney.
also look at the graph of aggregated poll numbers for the electoral college, percentage chance of a win, and percentage of the popular vote. the percentage chance for a win for obama stands at 85%, according to silver's math.
republicans should also consider all of the third party candidates out there, like gary johnson, and the fact that there are a lot of people who are going to write in ron paul. that will affect the popular vote, but not the electoral college. so my prediction is that the republican ticket (and brand) is going to be badly fractured by "independents."
i think you guys need a miracle.
obama 294 - romney 244, with florida and colorado going to romney. obama wins PA easily, and squeaks out OH and VA.
but i think that if early voting exit polls are any indication, the popular vote will approach landslide territory for obama.
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