"The majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124993702311020493.html
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/08/11/report-economists-say-recession-want-bernanke-stay/
Wonder if this is why they've moved on to hating Obama over health care reform.
maybe it's over for them - lol..they didn't ask me ;-) besides, I never listened to anything said on foxnews anyway...lol
no it is not over for me either.
Did they ask those who have lost their job or those who worry about losing their job? I doubt it.
And who do they credit with the recovery?
george W?
JoB, that's what I was wondering.
The recession started in 2007 but it's Obama's fault (It's his mess now!). The economy, by most measures is stabilizing, but that's Bush's accomplishment?
I don't think things are better yet. But six months in, to have the bleeding stop, is pretty damn impressive. It's gives us all a little relief to know things are eventually going to get better. In contrast to the naysayers who predict nothing but the demise of America as we know it.
maplesyrup
Member Profile
This is a bit like conservatives touting that we weren't in a recession in 2008 because GDP growth was 0.01%. Technically, that's not a recession but it doesn't mean that the economy as a whole is healthy.
A good dose of caution is still in order.
bluebird..
we haven't stopped bleeding. We have only slowed down the flow.
the problem with economists is that most of them pay more attention to the market than to wages... as long as those who can afford to are investing they think things are going well.
it's that pesky little bit about those who can't afford to invest.. or in some cases.. to eat.. that is a problem.
An improved job market is unfortunately a following economic indicator rather than a leading indicator. Employers wait for proof that the economy is improving, particularly improved sales, THEN they start hiring.
lizru
i get the priorities..
but you don't get improved sales unless people can buy and people without jobs can't buy... so manufacturers don't produce because stores aren't buying...
so.. unemployment actually leads sales declines... which contributes directly to more unemployment.
When the market is exhausted business declines.
vicious circle isn't it:(
Don't forget that those are the same economists that never saw the problem coming. I don't believe a word they say - except for maybe Paul Krugman. Anyone who says it's over is a best being overly optimistic - let alone in a fantasy land . . . .
Mark my words, there will not be a recovery in the US for, at least, 10 years - if at all. We're still hemorrhaging money with no prospect of creating much of anything the world wants. We still haven't paid a penny out for the foolish wars.
And with the failure of health care reform, who's going to reign in the dollars spent on the generally unhealthy generation that's about to retire?
Get a calculator and do the math folks.
Jiggers
Member Profile
They're full of BS!!
After reading both articles, I can't say I'm entirely convinced that the recession is over (as Maplesyrup noted, the standard definition of recession = 2 consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP).
"27 of 42 economists believe the economy is over" (WSJ)..."a majority of economists believe the recession has ended or will end soon" (Fox).
Obama himself is saying "the worst may be behind us". So it's not just conservatives.
The Panic of 2008 is definitely over. Doesn't mean I'm still not saving like crazy, worried about my job, and keeping household costs down, though.
JoB-
You're being too doom and gloom: you're describing the unemployment/decreased sales feedback loop that occurs DURING a recession, but reaching a faulty conclusion about unemployment and sales overall.
Across the broad spectrum of the economy, unemployment happening out of nowhere is not the cause of a recession. Typically, some sort of shock has to occur.
Consider this case: Gasoline prices spike sharply to record levels, purchasing all over the board slows down. Less stuff sold, less stuff made, less stuff built. Companies have to downgrade their earnings reports, cut pay, cut prices, and maybe shed jobs to stay afloat.
Meanwhile, investment firms realize the mortgage-backed securities aren't worth as much as they thought (foreclosures increased due to the gas price shock and adjustable rates kicking in - and now other firms don't want to buy the securities anymore). The whole house of cards comes down in a panic plus credit freeze, and it scares the bejeezus out of everybody.
THEN what you're describing occurs.
But you CAN increase sales during increased unemployment if you can get people to stop panicking, continue buying the things they need/want, and maybe entice them with lower prices. If you've lowered your prices correctly, sales will go up based on increased volume (though with a smaller margin perhaps).
With increased volume moving, companies may need to hire more employees to manage the flow. These actions show up as "green shoots" of recovery in the media.
So the job market does DOES trail recovery.
Sky,
Another WSJ article includes what you're talking about:
"Pace of Job Losses Sets Stage for Quick Labor-Market Rebound"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124984512901117509.html
Their reasoning includes the fact that a large portion of the job losses during this recession were service related. That wasn't the case in the past, so recovery was slower. Job growth will be immediately and directly related to spending confidence. Companies will need employees to handle that resurgence.
hello...
spending confidence increases with job security.
those without jobs don't spend.
with so many out of work even those who thought they had earned a lifetime of job security don't feel secure... so they don't spend either.
we still eat out.. but the days of doing so without thinking about whether or not it is a good idea are long gone... as are the days when we thought a hundred dollar dinner for the two of us acceptable for anything other than the most special occasions... and maybe not then.
As for the majority of the jobs being lost in the service sector.. duh... that's where the majority of our jobs were to start with..
which is one of the really big reasons this recession may still become a long term depression.
Could the focus on lower paying service jobs in contrast to higher paying manufacturing jobs be the "shock" that brought the system down?
Or is the the race to lower costs and increase stock share by dumping producing employees and shipping the functions overseas?
Or could it be that those who found their expectations suddenly lowered financed our "boom" at the cost of equity in their homes.. and the resulting foreclosures dumped housing prices reducing everyone's ability to borrow or to avoid foreclosure due to medical costs?
or could it be that the banks panicked, closing accounts on good customers, affecting their credit ratings in the process and limiting their own customer base?
gosh.. i could go on like this all day.. but sky and i already had this conversation and i can tell that it didn't have much impact...
Let the band play on.
I once heard that there has been a correlation between gas/fuel prices going up dramatically and a recession follows. Next time fuel goes through the roof... I will be investing in gold. Too late this time.
Anyway, technology and business reorganization caused my temporary unemployment. Oh Well. I am enjoying my family time.
One of the difficulties is that economists are relying on models that don't match our times. The United States has only become a service oriented society recently. We are literally forging new territory here.
You can only feed on the greed so long before it all collapses.. and if this humpty dumpty is put back together again it will have to look different to be sustainable.
HMCRich..
i am glad you are enjoying your family time but wish it wasn't imposed. I hope you find something that feeds your head, heart and belly soon.
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