West Seattle snow? Winter Storm Watch just announced

3:38 PM: You’ve heard the rumors and hints of some snow Friday morning; now, the National Weather Service has just started beating the drum a little louder, with a Winter Storm Watch alert for Thursday night through Friday morning. You can read it here; basically, snow is considered likely for most of Friday morning, before temperatures warm and change everything to rain Friday afternoon. Of course, you know how it goes – the forecast is just a forecast and things could change; event the alert says, “There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how this event will unfold.”

10:35 PM UPDATE: The uncertainty seems to be getting somewhat less uncertain. In WSB comments and on Twitter, the local expert who goes by “MetPatrick” is sharing his observations; and “chances are … very high” is what weather analyst Cliff Mass says on his site.

3:26 AM: In the 3 am forecast discussion, the National Weather Service is ratcheting down a bit.

9 Replies to "West Seattle snow? Winter Storm Watch just announced"

  • Philosurfy December 18, 2013 (4:51 pm)

    The kid in me hopes it unfolds with all 4″ of snow that NOAA says are possible for Highland Park!

  • MetPatrick December 18, 2013 (6:00 pm)

    Evening folks, several things to take into consideration regarding potential widespread snow overnight tomorrow into Friday am.

    1. the southwesterly component… when does it kick in? how strong will it be? how soon do we warm up?

    2. Evaporative cooling and offshore gradient. models right now show evap. cooling lasting a bit longer than initially progged and there IS a weak offshore gradient to work with.

    3. how much precip actually falls before warm up? right now the WRF and Hi-Res NAM show moisture arriving into the interior between 10 pm and 12 am and if the SW component doesn’t kick in right away then some serious snowfall is likely to occur before the warmer air @ 5000 feet mixes down to the surface and transitions precip from snow to rain.

    The HRRR ( High Resolution Rapid Refresh ) model will be watched closely tomorrow especially tomorrow aft/eve to see where the best placement of precip will be and occur.

    Furthermore I will be monitoring MESO data in the mid and upper levels throughout Thursday night and overnight time frame into Friday to see when the upper levels mix down to the surface to get a better handle on the ” Transition ”

    As it stands right now I would say the Winter Storm Watch currently in place looks good and will call for between 2- 4 inches in many spots around the area.

    Enjoy whatever snow you get and stay warm and dry later on Friday aft/eve.

  • sam-c December 18, 2013 (7:00 pm)

    thanks for your input metPatrick- what do you think it will do later in the day, during the ‘transition’? do you think it will all melt away so the afternoon commute is ok?

  • K December 18, 2013 (7:39 pm)


  • D December 18, 2013 (8:13 pm)

    Thanks MetPatrick! Weather is so fascinating to me, I really enjoy reading your posts!

  • MetPatrick December 18, 2013 (8:40 pm)

    If you want regular updates from me then follow me on Twitter


  • Mike December 18, 2013 (10:57 pm)

    Cliff Mass is a PNW weather God. I’ll have to start following MetPatrick too now.

  • JanS December 18, 2013 (11:08 pm)

    bread, milk, and TP…that’s all I’m saying :D

  • sophista-tiki December 18, 2013 (11:36 pm)

    better not stinkn snow. snow can bite me, hate snow, already had a lifetime of snow. grew up on the continental divide in MT AAAA snow, I curse you!

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