(Beautiful leaves that might not be on the tree much longer! Photo by Karen Sykes)
First, a “special weather statement” warned it might get windy … now, the National Weather Service has just upped that to a wind advisory, in effect as of 8 am tomorrow. It predicts south-southwest wind 20 to 35 mph, with 45 mph gusts possible. See the full alert here.
Just in case there aren’t enough leaves already on the ground for you to rake ;)
Good evening folks…Well here we go again with “another ” potential wind event and once again the models are waffling quite a bit even though the forecasted storm is a mere 12 hours away. Several scenarios are playing out in regard to the wind. one scenario shows a 992mb Low traversing a path from near La Push to Tofino with sharp pressure rises behind the main cold front and associated baroclinic band. Another scenario is quick hitting winds in the S sound and SW interior with lesser winds Seattle north. and another scenario shows just run of the mill “gusty” day on tap.
One thing of note is that the GFS and NAM are now showing very strong westerlies through the strait tomorrow gusting near 65-70 mph and SW winds in the interior from Everett southward in the 40-55 mph range, MUCH stronger on the coast and N. Interior.
One uncertainty still remains with this storm and that is the track and strength. newest data out this afternoon shows the storm rapidly intensifying before it makes landfall just north of La Push moving NE towards southern BC and into NE BC tomorrow afternoon with a central pressure around 984 to 986mb with a PDX – BLI gradient of +18mb which is very strong for this area….coupled with the wind will be a very wet night/overnight am period with up to .50 to .70 inches of rain in the lowlands and up to a FOOT of snow above 4000K feet in the Mt’s by Sunday am.
I will post an update by 10 pm tonight and again tomorrow am ( After 9 am )
9 Pm Update: 12Z GFS is out and shows a slightly further track to the south making landfall @ La Push and moving NE towards Vancouver BC with a central pressure of 986mb and a PDX – BLI gradient of 19-20mb which is VERY VERY strong…
I honestly would not be surprised to see the Metro area upgraded to either a High Wind Watch or Warning later tonight or very early tomorrow am.
Stay Tuned, my next update will be @ 9am
Thanks, MP. Looks like they kept it at advisory level as of about half an hour ago … but we’ll keep checking in the ensuing hours.
@WSB, the ONLY reason they kept the central sound in ” advisory ” categories is b/c they are basing their forecast off the 18Z model run and NOT the new 12Z model run which paints higher winds EVERYWHERE even the central sound, I am heading into work now but back @ 8am, Check NWS AFD @ 3-4am for updates and to see if the AM crew increases the advisory, I have a ” feeling ” they WILL!
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