4:39 PM: Just in – today’s ballot count shows Kshama Sawant widening her lead over incumbent Councilmember Richard Conlin to 402 votes; see the new numbers here.
P.S. The one-sheet with every race in the county is here. Next ballot count, about this time tomorrow.
ADDED 5:16 PM: A media-advisory excerpt from the Sawant campaign, with some context and the numbers as they’ve shifted since Election Night eight days ago:
The new numbers include Sawant receiving 3,344 more votes (52.10 percent) and 2,983 new votes (46.48 percent) for Conlin, bringing the overall total to 83,095 votes (49.99 percent) for Sawant and 82,693 votes (49.75 percent) for Conlin. After trailing by 6,136 votes on Election Night, Sawant is now ahead of Conlin by 402 votes, with still about 20,000 remaining ballots to count.
There are several different aspects to today’s numbers compared to recent ones:
1) It is a somewhat smaller count, with only 6,418 new votes counted this time, comared to over 8,000 Tueday and over 22,000 last Friday;
2) The number of write-in votes spiked this time (91), depressing both candidates’ percentages; and
3) While Sawant got a majority of votes for the seventh consecutive drop (see below), it was at a lower percentage than the last four, perhaps indicating a greater mixed of earlier, challenged ballots in the count – earlier votes tending to favor Conlin.
Election Night (Tues. 11-5) 38,116 46.13% 44,252 53.56%
Day Two Afternoon (11-6) 7,862 49.69% 7,949 50.24%
Day Two Evening (11-6) 3,385 50.21% 3,342 49.57%
Day Three Afternoon (11-7) 6,950 52.79% 6,174 46.90%
Day Three Evening (11-7) 5,747 55.92% 4,528 44.07%
Day Four Afternoon (11-8) 7,852 55.29% 6,338 44.63%
Day Four Evening (11-8) 5,021 58.45% 3,567 41.52%
Day Five (11-12) 4,818 57.38% 3,540 42.16%
Day Six (11-13) 3,344 52.10% 2,983 46.48%
Total 83,095 49.99% 82,693 49.75%
Nonetheless, unless her percentage declines further, Sawant is still on track to avoid a recount. In close elections, a machine recount is triggered when candidates finish within half a percentage point and 2,000 votes of each other. For the 185,000 overall votes expected in this race, Sawant would need a margin of 926 votes to exceed the .5 percent threshold needed for an automatic recount. She is currently 524 votes short of reaching that threshold. Sawant would need to win only about 51.31% of remaining non-write-in votes to avoid an automatic recount, still well below her percentage in today’s returns.
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